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NFL Super Bowl XLIX Sunday Game Thread

I didn't even notice all of the photographers on the field till now.
 
TownieDeac said:
Even one of their models suggests running had a .3% better chance of winning than passing.
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You mean the one that was qualified as the most pro beast mode assumptions? Didnt know english majors would have such problems about this stuff. I mean the math is clearly over your head but ya should be able to read the paragraphs explaining it!
 
palmab03 said:
You mean the one that was qualified as the most pro beast mode assumptions? Didnt know english majors would have such problems about this stuff. I mean the math is clearly over your head but ya should be able to read the paragraphs explaining it!
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I read it. All I called it was "one of the models."

The other one was pro-Gost.

Also 538's models are...
 
TownieDeac said:
I read it. All I called it was "one of the models."

The other one was pro-Gost.

Also 538's models are...
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So you're purposely leaving out valuable descriptors in order to attempt to save face instead of admitting that #towniewaswrong. Got it
 
Remember that time plama didn't know what leverage was? Ahh, e-memories
 
Then again i hear a lotta football guys saying you go with what brought ya there. Im quickly becoming swayed. 2 > 3.
 
You're on ignore. I'm sick of letting an idiot troll me.
 
TexasDeac10 said:
It's pretty clear they just came to the wrong conclusion. I don't think this means they "overthought" anything--every team would want their coaches thinking more, not less.

But it does show how difficult some of these advanced stats football decisions can be. No coach can possibly crunch all the numbers in the short amount of time they have to call and run a play. I don't really fault Caroll and his staff for "overthinking" and calling that play--they just thought wrongly, which sucks.
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I think coaches can over think things, absolutely. I imagine that every Seahawks fan in that building would love it if one of their own was asked to call the crucial 2nd down play. That guy would've walked down onto the field, called a Lynch run, and returned to his seat celebrating back to back championships.
 
DeacDaddy said:
I think coaches can over think things, absolutely. I imagine that every Seahawks fan in that building would love it if one of their own was asked to call the crucial 2nd down play. That guy would've walked down onto the field, called a Lynch run, and returned to his seat celebrating back to back championships.
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Plus the fact that we saw pretty much the exact scenario three years ago where a run was called, and Belichik told his team to let them fucking score to maximize the time on offense. How does that fator into the KenPomination?

6a00d8341c630a53ef016761d14fdd970b-pi
 
As far as I can tell, I guess the difference between that scenario and this one was the Pats would've needed a TD to beat the Giants, whereas in this case they only needed a FG to send it to OT, so time was more of a priority in the 2012 game.

The smart angle of it is I'm guessing his decision was largely dictated by Seattle only having 1 timeout, thus limiting their playbook. If they ran Lynch on 2nd down and he got stopped then they couldn't run it again on 3rd down for fear of the clock running out (although after how they handled the first half they still might've tried that). That said, the Giants were in the same exact scenario -- 1 timeout remaining -- in the other game.

Either way Belichick wasn't exactly leaving Brady with much time. It was the ultimate hit on 20 gamble that worked
 
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With Seattle having just one timeout, it made more sense for Belichick to call TO with a minute left. In that scenario, the Patriots still would have been able to run out the clock after getting a stop, even with all that extra time. Belichick has historically been one of the best with clock management, but that was definitely a rare fuckup for him. I'm glad it ultimately worked out.

Alternatively, Carroll correctly had to let the clock run as far as he could before the play to make Belichick pay for his mistake and limit Brady's time. Of course this created the scenario he had: being able to run a maximum of twice with 26 seconds left at the snap of that interception. That said, as a Patriots fan, I was certain it was over if it got handed off, which tells me all I need to know about Carroll's call.

At least Carroll finally came through for the Pats!
 
It should be noted Seattle drove the length of the field for a TD in the last 31 seconds of the first half. Getting in FG range with ~15 seconds left still wouldn't have been easy, but it would've been possible.

However, the Pats are such a dink-and-dunk offense that it would've been a pretty big challenge.

Had Seattle scored and the Pats not tied it up we'd be talking about not calling that TO for years to come
 
Pats would have gone three and out.... that catch was so deflating that I feel like at least a few of the Pats guys on offense would have gotten totally owned. And you're right, the Pats have such a "dink and dunk" offense (aka quick passes, screens etc) that I'm not sure they would have been able to move the ball into field goal range within a minute or so even in their regular offense. But I'm pretty sure they would have abandoned their regular offense and gone into prayer mode, which never really seemed to work well for Brady over the past few years.
 
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