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NFL Super Bowl XLIX Sunday Game Thread

That graph and subsequent analysis is why advanced stats are just fucking stupid. It is Marshawn Lynch at the goalline to win the Super Bowl after he has been playing great on the drive to get down there (sideline reception, prior run). Just give him the damn ball and don't KenPom it up.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
That graph and subsequent analysis is why advanced stats are just fucking stupid. It is Marshawn Lynch at the goalline to win the Super Bowl after he has been playing great on the drive to get down there (sideline reception, prior run). Just give him the damn ball and don't KenPom it up.
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Exactly. EV calculations can only tell you what is the best outcome on average. I would argue that ML is not your average running back in that situation.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
That graph and subsequent analysis is why advanced stats are just fucking stupid. It is Marshawn Lynch at the goalline to win the Super Bowl after he has been playing great on the drive to get down there (sideline reception, prior run). Just give him the damn ball and don't KenPom it up.
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Yep, Pete should've KISSED IT, Keep It Simple Stupid.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
That graph and subsequent analysis is why advanced stats are just fucking stupid. It is Marshawn Lynch at the goalline to win the Super Bowl after he has been playing great on the drive to get down there (sideline reception, prior run). Just give him the damn ball and don't KenPom it up.
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DistrictDeacon said:
Exactly. EV calculations can only tell you what is the best outcome on average. I would argue that ML is not your average running back in that situation.
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liveanddiedeac said:
Yep, Pete should've KISSED IT, Keep It Simple Stupid.
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Well as it happens, had Pete actually used "advanced stats" he would have seen the highest percentage play would be to run the ball with Lynch.
 
OMG, on Fox Jim Grey just said that the Patriots allowed opponents to score on power running situations from the 2 yard line or closer, 81 percent of the time this season, dead last in the NFL. The Seahawks were the best at scoring from the 2 or closer percentage wise in power running situations in the NFL this year. That seals that it was the worst play call ever in my book.
 
bmoneydeac said:
Throw should have been low and towards back shoulder. Prolly incomplete at worst with a better throw.
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I disagree. RW threw the ball where it had to be thrown for that play call. DB just made a hell of a play.
 
I would say Seattle played it how most teams would play it. Pass, run, TO, pass. But Belichick had it right at half time, it came down to players making plays. I was shocked he didn't call time outs there to slow the game down, but had he done that, Lynch may have gotten the ball. Who knows how that would go. I think I would have gotten the ball to Lynch as he is your superstar and let him make a play. Oh well, it's the NFL. You have to make a throw and catch, and the DB made an outstanding play. Hard to blame anyone. If Seattle runs out the clock and scores last second, then Belichick is a doofus for not calling timeout.
 
freakadeac said:
For me the best comparison is that it feels kind of like the Spurs losing to the Heat in 2013 (Pop benching Duncan for the Allen play = Carroll throwing a slant on 2nd and Goal) but at least I wasn't rooting that hard for the Seahawks like I was for the Spurs. Bellichick not calling timeout is a worse decision than Carroll throwing a slant.
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Completely agree with the bold. If I'm the Pats, I'd rather be down 3 with 0:55 left on offense with the ball on my 20 than up 4 with 0:25 to go on defense on my own 1 yard line (because you're very very likely to end up in the same spot but giving Brady 40 fewer seconds to do his thing).
 
A buddy and I discussed this a few minutes ago. If you had told Carroll that he didn't have to play the season and would just have 2 chances to run the ball from the 1 1/2 yard line to win the Super Bowl, he would have been happy to take that deal, right?

Those guys just overthought things.
 
DeaconSig said:
A buddy and I discussed this a few minutes ago. If you had told Carroll that he didn't have to play the season and would just have 2 chances to run the ball from the 1 1/2 yard line to win the Super Bowl, he would have been happy to take that deal, right?

Those guys just overthought things.
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Yeah, but the thing is the "advanced stats" bore out that running the ball would've been the right percentage play and also simple common sense said it would've been the right play, so how in the world do you come to the decision to throw it????
 
liveanddiedeac said:
Yeah, but the thing is the "advanced stats" bore out that running the ball would've been the right percentage play and also simple common sense said it would've been the right play, so how in the world do you come to the decision to throw it????
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It's pretty clear they just came to the wrong conclusion. I don't think this means they "overthought" anything--every team would want their coaches thinking more, not less.

But it does show how difficult some of these advanced stats football decisions can be. No coach can possibly crunch all the numbers in the short amount of time they have to call and run a play. I don't really fault Caroll and his staff for "overthinking" and calling that play--they just thought wrongly, which sucks.
 
TexasDeac10 said:
It's pretty clear they just came to the wrong conclusion. I don't think this means they "overthought" anything--every team would want their coaches thinking more, not less.

But it does show how difficult some of these advanced stats football decisions can be. No coach can possibly crunch all the numbers in the short amount of time they have to call and run a play. I don't really fault Caroll and his staff for "overthinking" and calling that play--they just thought wrongly, which sucks.
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Yeah but when you "thought wrongly" when the right answer was so obvious is a problem, especially when you're getting paid all that money.
 
TexasDeac10 said:
It's pretty clear they just came to the wrong conclusion. I don't think this means they "overthought" anything--every team would want their coaches thinking more, not less.

But it does show how difficult some of these advanced stats football decisions can be. No coach can possibly crunch all the numbers in the short amount of time they have to call and run a play. I don't really fault Caroll and his staff for "overthinking" and calling that play--they just thought wrongly, which sucks.
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Football seems way behind baseball and basketball when it comes to 'advanced stats'. It seems like it could be such a great playcalling tool to know this WOPR stuff. If the only current simulators are proprietary and run by stat geeks outside the game, it seems like only a matter of time before somebody gets the competitive edge and buys a fancy real time analytics package for their booth.
 
Playcall advanced stats is tricky because it is very dynamic. You aren't going to want to run on 3rd and 2 at midfield if the opposition has 8 DL/OL in the game even if that generally is the ¨correct¨ move. There can be clock considerations, injuries, in-game dynamics. Plus you have to be balanced, you can't always run on 3rd and 1 every time. So it is impossible to plug and chug solutions to play calls using stats. That is why you can't boil down the Seahawks decision yesterday to right/wrong with statistics alone.

But you are completely right on 4th down decisions and stuff like timeouts. That has been largely solved and ignored by coaches. Every staff should have a game management coach with a computer.
 
TownieDeac said:
Football seems way behind baseball and basketball when it comes to 'advanced stats'. It seems like it could be such a great playcalling tool to know this WOPR stuff. If the only current simulators are proprietary and run by stat geeks outside the game, it seems like only a matter of time before somebody gets the competitive edge and buys a fancy real time analytics package for their booth.
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I've always assumed a real-time simulator like that doesn't exist, but that could definitely be a flawed assumption.
 
So Seattle has to take Avril out for concussion, but Pats wouldn't let Edelman meet with concussion doctors? Reporters say independant doctors upstairs kept calling down for Edelman to be taken off field and reviewed with no answer. Nothing will happen though.
 
Throwing the ball is OK, just don't throw it right into the middle of the defense. There's so little room to work with in the end zone, gotta go to the outside
 
TownieDeac said:
Football seems way behind baseball and basketball when it comes to 'advanced stats'. It seems like it could be such a great playcalling tool to know this WOPR stuff. If the only current simulators are proprietary and run by stat geeks outside the game, it seems like only a matter of time before somebody gets the competitive edge and buys a fancy real time analytics package for their booth.
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There's great potential for advanced stats in football, but the big difference is taking into account 11 vs. 11 instead of pitcher vs. hitter or 5 vs. 5.
 
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