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NFL Year 2022. Superbowl Winner: Kansas City Chiefs!

For Deac's Sake said:
Just have a sneaky feeling that Tomlin is going to end the year by continuing his streak of never having a losing record as a head coach…
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They will beat the browns. No challenge there. And Harbaugh will find a way to misuse Lamar, again, in a critical situation and they will choke the game away. Again.
 
I see this NFL crew from the Commanders game last week is shitting the bed again this week. These guys have no business officiating professional football.
 
So, Tom Brady sucks now, right? I get that the Bucs have injury problems and the chemistry with the WRs might not be there, but he looks like he sucks.
 
DORTCH is the only WR with a catch for the cardinals. He and Trace are trying to take down Brady all by themselves hahah
 
I’m not sure you could be this bad on offense if you were trying.
 
Tirico is a professional. He's probably been sitting on that for awhile.
 
So the Cards were gashing the Bucs with Connor and running clock, but they went with a quick pitch to a rookie on 3rd and 1. I'll never understand how these guys overthink short yardage situations.
 
I wonder how many time a team kicking on 3rd down have actually screwed it up and used 4th down. Announcer make it sound like it happens every week.

Percentage of times ? I bet less than 5 %
 
This is 10 years old but interesting, regarding kicking on 3rd down. I'd be shocked, if with all of today's analytics (and gambling) that newer stats are not available.

One person's view (I have had NFL Sunday ticket for 20+ years and typically see the end of at least 6 games in the two time slots) and I can recall a screwed up snap/hold that kicking on 3rd down allowed the team to kick on 4th.

Should You Kick a FG on 3rd Down?

With the game on the line, coaches are fond of attempting a FG on 3rd down in case of a bobbled snap. The rationale is that in case of a b...
www.advancedfootballanalytics.com www.advancedfootballanalytics.com

But, its seems that announcers, at the least, accept it as a logical decision.

I'm suspect when no one rolls out a stat saying, this happens x% of the time.
 
This is their conclusion: "Run a play on 3rd down and gain some yards. "Field goal range" is a myth. Closer is better, and the risks aren't big enough to make the difference."

This is the end of the Bucs game winning FG drive.

Arizona 19 1st & 10 False start
Arizona 24 1st & 15 4 yard run
Arizona 20 2nd & 11 -2 yard run

At this point, Tirico said something to the effect, "They're going backwards at this point. They might as well kick it here."

If the goal is to kick a FG, why risk a false start, holding call, fumble, or TFL on 3rd down? Just kick it.
 
True, but with today's big data, why don't we have actual stats?

The Bucs are pretty dysfunctional on offense right now, they probably should have kicked further out. :)

IMO, we hear it all the time, if you kick on 3rd, and have a botched snap or hold, you can fall on it an kick on 4th. How many times have we actually seen it?

Now if you want to say don't run a play on 3rd because you might lose yards, that's a different issue.

There is a big difference between kicking on 3rd, because of a bad snap/hold, than being an idiot and tossing the ball to a back 5 yards behind the line which creates an opportunity to lose yards.

It's just hard to believe these type of stats have not been compiled in the last 10 years. We have they entire, 'better to go for 2 here' metrics, which can be used when there are 1-2 quarters to go in the game. Why wouldn't there be stats saying kick on 3rd because ....?

To me these seem like two things in hoops:

1. Foul when up by 3? No universal opinion on that, seems more coach real life experience.
2. Maybe 5-10 years ago a study was done that said if you are trailing by 5 or more in the last 2 minutes of an NBA game, the odds were completely stacked against you to pull it out, but announcers act like coming back from 10 down in the last 2 is realistically doable. I've used this as a guideline when watching NBA basketball since I hears that and it is pretty reliable. My only point on this is announcers can say a lot of stuff doesn't mean they either know what they are talking about or they are just trying to keep an audience. Just because Tirico and Chris C have a mike doesn't make them more knowledgeable.
 
Again, Tirico specifically mentioned that the Bucs were losing yards.

I’m not sure what your point is here. NFL FG attempts inside 50 yards are about as sure as sure things get. That’s what coaches opt to play it safe and kick a FG instead of trying to score a TD. Kicking on 3rd down eliminates the range of potential mistakes that could happen with another play. It also gives the offense another chance in the very unlikely situation of a botched snap or blocked FG recovered behind the kicking spot. Something doesn’t have to happen often for it to be a potential benefit.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
A.J. Brown is a top-eight receiver in the league and very likely to be substantially better than anyone drafted at 15 or 101.

I went back 10 years, and here are the players selected at those respective spots:
2012- Bruce Irvin, Omar Bolden
2013- Kenny Vaccaro, Ace Sanders
2014- Ryan Shazier, Jaylen Watkins
2015- Melvin Gordon, Trey Flowers
2016- Corey Coleman, Charles Tapper
2017- Malik Hooker, Brendan Langley
2018- Kolton Miller, Ian Thomas
2019- Dwayne Haskins, Yodny Cajuste
2020- Jerry Jeudy, Dalton Keene
2021- Mac Jones, Ifeatu Melifonwu

It's obviously too early to judge the last two classes, but among the rest, 2015 is the only one you could remotely argue returns better value than Brown, and that seems like a stretch. PFR wAV for Gordon is 48, Flowers is 34, and Brown is already at 30. Gordon is entrenched as a 1B RBBC and just turned 29. Flowers has played 14 games and accumulated 3.5 sacks in the last two years combined. Brown turns 25 this summer and is a proven talent. The only questions are 1. whether he can stay health, or if missing 3-4 games a year is the norm, and 2. Whether Philly will let Hurts pass enough, or whether he's capable of passing well enough, to utilize him. If nothing else, you've put yourself in a position, similar to Miami, where your QB doesn't have any excuses if he doesn't perform and you have no qualms about moving on next year.

The trade with the Texans was a head-scratcher, but the trade for Brown was tremendous value.
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Through Week 16, A.J. Brown has 80 receptions (13th in the NFL) for 1,304 yards (4th) and 10 touchdowns (t-3rd).

#15 pick Treylon Burks has a 25-359-1 line, and has missed 6 game due to injury. #101 pick TE Jeremy Ruckert has zero catches on 1 target in eight games played.
 
And FWIW

1-29 yards Succup is 98%, with two misses in his career.
30-39 92% - 9 misses
40-49 77% - 30 misses

So a 40 yard kick is somewhere between 92% and 77%. Get the 10 yards to the 29 is a near lock.
PhDeac said:
This is their conclusion: "Run a play on 3rd down and gain some yards. "Field goal range" is a myth. Closer is better, and the risks aren't big enough to make the difference."

This is the end of the Bucs game winning FG drive.

Arizona 19 1st & 10 False start
Arizona 24 1st & 15 4 yard run
Arizona 20 2nd & 11 -2 yard run

At this point, Tirico said something to the effect, "They're going backwards at this point. They might as well kick it here."

If the goal is to kick a FG, why risk a false start, holding call, fumble, or TFL on 3rd down? Just kick it.
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based on this they should have just kicked in 1st down. If you are afraid of losing yards why tusk it in 1st and 2nd?
 
So you’re saying they should have thrown the ball on 3rd down and increased the likelihood of losing yardage or a turnover in order to marginally increase the odds of a highly likely event?

What they did makes sense. Take two chances to gain yards. That didn’t work so go ahead and kick.
 
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