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NFL Year 2023. Kansas City Chiefs Win Super Bowl LVIII. Defeat 49ers in Overtime. 25-22.

Both 4th down calls were statistically correct. I would’ve probably kicked the second. The first was absolutely a go for it situation

Each time go for it adds 2 pts of win probability
 
deacvision7 said:
I'm not saying that I wouldn't have sent out my kicker there but I get it from Campbell's perspective, I really do.

Hindsight is 20/20 and all that, but at the time I didn't think it was a crazy decision. Through that decision he told his team that he had faith in them. It didn't end up working out, obviously, but I just can't find fault with it. If the pass is caught and they convert there then everything is gravy.

Results oriented analysis is sometimes overly harsh.
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if he truly believed 30 points was key you kick the FG to get to 27 knowing this O easily gets another FG if not more. So dumb.
 
WindyCityDeac said:
Both 4th down calls were statistically correct. I would’ve probably kicked the second. The first was absolutely a go for it situation

Each time go for it adds 2 pts of win probability
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It's the n f c championship game on the road. That's why every coach in the n f l would have kicked there.

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You can't convince me any metrics suggest going for 4th and 3 from the 30 down 3. The risk of what exactly happened is way too high.

Let's see if Goff can get two TDs with Dan Campbell's trust.
 
PhDeac said:
You can't convince me any metrics suggest going for 4th and 3 from the 30 down 3. The risk of what exactly happened is way too high.
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I personally agree with this.

But Windy is correct on the analytics
 
WindyCityDeac said:
Both 4th down calls were statistically correct. I would’ve probably kicked the second. The first was absolutely a go for it situation

Each time go for it adds 2 pts of win probability
Click to expand...
Do the stats take into consideration if FG makes a 3 score game vs 2? im guessing not and that is a big flaw in stats if looking at a situation straight up vs the situation.
 
saltydeac said:
Do the stats take into consideration if FG makes a 3 score game vs 2? im guessing not and that is a big flaw in stats if looking at a situation straight up vs the situation.
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Do the stats take into consideration WRs who can't catch the ball?
 
pinochadeac said:
The Lions couldn't catch a damn thing. Campbell will take heat for those decisions, but his WRs let him down.

And I would have kicked the 2nd.
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Still can’t. Lions receivers have gone stone handed.
 
WindyCityDeac said:
They 100% take into account time and score
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Well then a clear flaw as doesnt take into account momentum which is real and can’t risk giving that up with a bad play. Just can’t as they were dominating running the ball and it gave niners hope.
 
If Dan Campbell kicks the FGs and they lose because his receivers STILL can’t catch anything, everyone is asking why he changed from his philosophy he’s had all year. You don’t change who you are in a big game. You just have to make plays.

This is all on the guys dropping passes
 
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