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Obama will lose in a Landslide

If unemployment is still hovering around 9%, gas is $3.50+, housing is in the toilet, and spending and debt accumulation remain out of control it will be hard for Obama to get re-elected.

Plus the novelty/coolness of voting for the black guy won't factor in this time around. I don't really see irrational fawning going on now that was around in 2008...remember the Kennedyesque rally in Berlin...the Greek columns speech in the stadium? The groupie effect has nearly disappeared.
 
in an aside, for reasons perhaps she understands, Debbie, etc. just went out and said "We own the economy" followed by lots of words that will be omitted from the TV ad.

so much for making the GOP congress share responsibility.
 
TheShot said:
Obama got 67& of Hispanic vote on 2008, which was a major increase for Democrats from 2004, when Bush got 44%.

I am a firm believer that the VP doesn't matter to the result in modern politics. (I know, I know, "but it mattered in 1960" -- that was fifty years ago, get over it) Not sure whether that holds true for selections that might have particular appeal to certain groups. (hasn't really been tested except maybe Ferraro in '84) Hispanics are far from a unified voting block.
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You don't think McCain's age coupled with Palin's competency influenced any voters?
 
SCDeac said:
If unemployment is still hovering around 9%, gas is $3.50+, housing is in the toilet, and spending and debt accumulation remain out of control it will be hard for Obama to get re-elected.

Plus the novelty/coolness of voting for the black guy won't factor in this time around. I don't really see irrational fawning going on now that was around in 2008...remember the Kennedyesque rally in Berlin...the Greek columns speech in the stadium? The groupie effect has nearly disappeared.
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The demographics haven't changed to help the GOP. In fact they have grown to hurt them.
 
ONW said:
You don't think McCain's age coupled with Palin's competency influenced any voters?
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probably a few--but not significant to the final result (Obama winning).

I suppose I should have been more specific.

Does not influence the end result of who wins. People vote for top of ticket.
 
VP is not likely to be a positive. It can be a a negative.
 
TheShot said:
probably a few--but not significant to the final result (Obama winning).

I suppose I should have been more specific.

Does not influence the end result of who wins. People vote for top of ticket.
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The VP on a ticket can only hurt not help. I agree.
 
RJKarl said:
The demographics haven't changed to help the GOP. In fact they have grown to hurt them.
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I'm not talking about demographics...I'm talking about incredibly lousy economic numbers and the loss of the nearly irrational groupie type hysteria that existed in '08.

That said I didn't see anyone on that stage 2 nights ago who excites me as a voter in any way.
 
ONW said:
The VP on a ticket can only hurt not help. I agree.
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Dan Quayle was a part of tickets that won 40 states in 1988 and 18 in 1992.

I don't think he much mattered either time.
 
RJKarl said:
Winning the demographics is how you win elections.
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to an extent, yes. it's not as neat as you say because the demos are not evenly dispersed among equally-valuable states.

but, accepting your premise, what you haven't really answered is why Obama should win all of these demographics so handily. if you look at his 2008 result, and then apply the current political environment (versus then), and then factor for economic trends (real and perceived) while Obama has been president, shouldn't we expect his share of most demographics to decline, thus throwing us into a competitive election, provided voters have at least a baseline comfort level with the alternative?

shouldn't we expect his share of independents (+8 in 2008 ) to decline? should we expect he will be able to excite and generate as many new voters the second time around? young voters?
 
TheShot said:
Dan Quayle was a part of tickets that won 40 states in 1988 and 18 in 1992.

I don't think he much mattered either time.
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True, but the top of the ticket wasn't expected to die on an actuarial chart, leaving the idea that the VP could wind up running the country less of a reality.
 
SCDeac said:
I'm not talking about demographics...I'm talking about incredibly lousy economic numbers and the loss of the nearly irrational groupie type hysteria that existed in '08.

That said I didn't see anyone on that stage 2 nights ago who excites me as a voter in any way.
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Demographics certainly play a role, but I agree with SC's point about the economic data, certain positions taken by dems, and frankly, complacency.

See Scott Brown v. Martha Coakley. Demographics didn't favor Brown, but current issues and Coakley's complete lack of a personality did.
 
more data. (all from pew, btw)

in 2008, 63% said economy was top issue, and that group went decisively for Obama: +9

will that be the same in 2008, if current economic trends hold?
will Obama really get 20% of self-id "conservatives" now that he has been better defined?
will he still win moderates so decisively? (+11)

you're talking all demos: black, Hispanic, etc. I'm saying the issues will also matter.
 
Demographics didn't elect Tim Scott in SC...not by a long shot.
 
As to "should" why "should" blue collar workers or gays EVER vote GOP? The GOP is the reason why it's so easy to outsource jobs. The GOPP also supports cutting the taxes on top earners which will have to made up by middle and lower income earners unless you want deficits forever.

Why would ANY gay person vote for a Republican given that the GOP opposes any rights for gay people?

I "should" be a gazillionaire. I'm not.

Why would Hispanics vote for the GOP? The GOP virulently opposes the W immigration plan. They oppose the Dream Act. Why would any Hispanic vote for a Republican?

You can talk about theories all you like, The VOTES of the GOP are anti-gay, anti-Hispanic and anti-black.

Now the GOP's stance on Medicare is anti-seniors amd they vote.

If the Dems have ANY balls or brains, they should win back the House off that vote.
 
That's pretty cynical to think that people vote in blocks based on skin color like they're some mindless group of zombies.
 
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Since we're talking anti this and that...

Dems are anti-Christian/religion, anti-gun rights, anti-business, anti-deficit reduction, anti-Israel, anti-military, anti-pro life...

Let's see...conservatives hate blacks, old people, hispanics, gay people, immigrants, the middle class...Holy Shit! Those are such original ideas. How did the left never trot out those before.

2012 will be the return of "It's the economy stupid!"
 
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