Obama will lose in a Landslide

[WakeForestRanger]

fivethirtyeight Nate Silver
Over the past 100 years, no incumbent president with an unemployment rate of between 7.6% and 23.5% has failed to win re-election.

What was the unemployment rate for Hoover's reelection bid?

I'm guessing FDR won his reelection bid in 1936 with the 23.5%.

 

[dot com]

That's an interesting point.
Has anyone on here ever voted or not voted for someone based on who the VP nominee was?

I'm a McCain fan, I would have voted for him four or eight years earlier, but in '08 he was too old and Palin too much a nightmare for me to take a chance. If he had a different VP he might have gotten my vote.

 

[PhDeac]

dot com, do you think '08 McCain was significantly different than '04 or '00 McCain?

As long as we're talking VP, something to consider. Obama may not go with Biden as his 2012 running mate. Complete speculation, but it seems like he could consider shaking it up.

Where are the best places to bet on the election since Dirk is wussing out?

 

[KanhojiAngre]

Winning the demographics is how you win elections.

Wrong. Winning states is how you win elections.

Name a state in which the Hispanic vote -- as if there is such a monolithic animal -- turns a GOP state into a Dem state.

Hispanic people don't vote in lock step like blacks do. Florida Cubans have completely different issue concerns than Southern California Mexicans.

 

[KanhojiAngre]

The Tea Party steered the GOP out of at least two Senate seats last election. Don't count on them to steer the GOP nominee toward the middle, which is where presidential elections are decided.

Regarding unemployment, see my last post. It generally seems not to matter, so long as the number doesn't spike drastically in 2012. Regarding gas prices, that's like setting up the Dems for a pet issue- blame the oil companies. It won't hurt him too badly when he points the finger at oil company profits over the last three years.

LOL you don't think the GOP will then roll out the quotes and ads re: Obama thinking high oil prices are desirable? It's already started...if you google Obama wants higher gas prices, you get links from this week.

There's no way to spin high oil prices as a good thing if you're the incumbent that's been in office while they've been going up

The Silver stuff seems to be rather selectively chosen. There are very few times in post WWII history that the unemployment rate has even been above 8% 1975, 1981-83, and then 2009 to the present. This would appear to encompass exactly zero presidential elections.

So far every full month since his inauguration, the unemployment rate under Obama has been above 8%. The first month after his inauguration was the first month over 8% since Dec. 1983 -- or more than 25 years.

 

[TownieDeac]

LOL you don't think the GOP will then roll out the quotes and ads re: Obama thinking high oil prices are desirable? It's already started...if you google Obama wants higher gas prices, you get links from this week.

There's no way to spin high oil prices as a good thing if you're the incumbent that's been in office while they've been going up

The Silver stuff seems to be rather selectively chosen. There are very few times in post WWII history that the unemployment rate has even been above 8% 1975, 1981-83, and then 2009 to the present. This would appear to encompass exactly zero presidential elections.

So far every full month since his inauguration, the unemployment rate under Obama has been above 8%. The first month after his inauguration was the first month over 8% since Dec. 1983 -- or more than 25 years.

Let's be real, Obama was SLACKING in the month before his inauguration.

 

[Go]

dot com, do you think '08 McCain was significantly different than '04 or '00 McCain?

As long as we're talking VP, something to consider. Obama may not go with Biden as his 2012 running mate. Complete speculation, but it seems like he could consider shaking it up.

Where are the best places to bet on the election since Dirk is wussing out?

I'll bet someone that Obama loses. It might be fun.

Do we play up in South Bend in 2012? 2013? We could meet up there and drinks on me.

 

[jhmd2000]

This is an interesting quandry: Unemployment in the black and Gen Z'ers communities is frighteningly low.

He will get large percentages of these groups; but will they turn out?

 

[ONW]

dot com, do you think '08 McCain was significantly different than '04 or '00 McCain?

As long as we're talking VP, something to consider. Obama may not go with Biden as his 2012 running mate. Complete speculation, but it seems like he could consider shaking it up.

Where are the best places to bet on the election since Dirk is wussing out?

Yes, he was older, i.e. closer to death, and it put the moron into the equation.

 

[ONW]

It's just killing you that the GOP won't be nominating some social issues flake cut from the Robertson/Falwell mold. Thank God the tea party steered the consrvative movement squarely toward fiscal issues and away from those fringe issues that most mainstream people don't give a shit about.

9%+ unemployment and the price of gas....the 2 most important numbers that will decide this election.

Has any Republican candidate offered a plan to lower unemployment and reduce gas prices? Not a dog and pony show, legitimate actions. Drill baby drill and reduce taxes are too vague btw.

 

[PhDeac]

I'll bet someone that Obama loses. It might be fun.

Do we play up in South Bend in 2012? 2013? We could meet up there and drinks on me.

No fun. You'd get a beer from me regardless. Thanks for the reminder to start working on my wife to get a free pass for this year's game and the return game up there.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Barring a good candidate coming forth for the GOP, Obama is going to win moderates and win the election.

Social conservatism is killing the GOP and the primary circus which is going on right now is only going to get worse.

Perry has no chance of winning the nomination.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Also I'm VERY interested in seeing the percent change in black voters and voters under 30 for the next election.

It's almost certainly going to be lower than 2008, and in states like North Carolina could be the determining factor.

NC is going to be a hotbed of activity leading up to the election.

 

[ncsportsnut1]

Why the deck is stacked against a second term for Obama:

(1) Florida and Ohio are the first keys to an electoral landslide for a Republican candidate. If the Republican candidate wins either state, it is highly unlikely that Obama can overcome that loss. Those states are two of the worst hit and if the election were held today Obama could not win either. It's worth noting that both states have Republican governors and strong organizations. Ohio had popular Democrat governor in 2008.

(20 It's the economy stupid. Even if the unemployment dips to, let's say, 8 or 8.5, that doesn't relieve Obama of the cinderblock of the poor economy. He now has to defend actions he took as President. The stimulus is going to be front and center because he pushed it and said the stimulus will do X, Y, and Z, yet, HIS program did not deliver. 1.9 million jobs have been lost since he spent $850 billion to save them. That is just the tip of the iceberg. The mortage loan modification program has been a disaster. Efforts to jumpstart the economy have come home to roost such as the first time home buyers rebate, "cash for clunkers", etc. If you tie them all together, it will give a Republican candidate an opportunity to state that Obama has "gimmicks" and "programs" that usually fail, but does not have a coherent economic policy that can give certainty of a solid growing U.S. economy to business leaders, markets, IMF, allies, etc. I really think if this was Obama's only issue, it's the most powerful by far and he has very little chance of re-election.

(3) There has been some shift of Congressional seats, and as a result, Electoral College votes, away from some blue states to red ones. New York and Illinois both are losing seats I believe, but haven't looked at it in a while. These seats are being picked up by Southern and Western states that are growing. In a close election this may tip the balance.

(4) It will be hard for Obama to keep some of the "one-time" electoral wins. North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado to name a few. Pennsylvania has shifted since 2008, and could present the other major state issue along with Ohio and Florida.

Other miscellaneous: the Obama "mystique" is gone and he is more than human; do not expect to see the same level of excitement and turnout among black voters as they have now had a black president and have seen history made and are ready to move on to a successful president, not one who has left them with approximately 16-17 % unemployment and their other issues have not been addressed; youth vote will swing away as well as they are disenchanted with the high aspirations of "yes we can" and then very little success in Obama administration i.e. Guantanomo still open, still using drones in Pakistan, not out of Afghanistan, etc.; too many others to name.

 

[PhDeac]

I think social conservatives are going to take a backseat in this election. I think the tea party movement has consumed it and Republicans know they're not going to gain any ground using issues like abortion, gay marriage, or DADT. Democrats don't necessarily want to turn off conservative Dems by harping on these issues either.

 

[RJKarl]

Why the deck is stacked against a second term for Obama:

(1) Florida and Ohio are the first keys to an electoral landslide for a Republican candidate. If the Republican candidate wins either state, it is highly unlikely that Obama can overcome that loss. Those states are two of the worst hit and if the election were held today Obama could not win either. It's worth noting that both states have Republican governors and strong organizations. Ohio had popular Democrat governor in 2008.

In FL the GOP Gov has a 29% approval rating. In OH, the GOP gov has a 38% and dropping approval rating.

Even if Obama loses -OH, FL, IN and MC hewil lstill have 290+ EV, Thus your premise has no basis in reality.

(20 It's the economy stupid. Even if the unemployment dips to, let's say, 8 or 8.5, that doesn't relieve Obama of the cinderblock of the poor economy. He now has to defend actions he took as President. The stimulus is going to be front and center because he pushed it and said the stimulus will do X, Y, and Z, yet, HIS program did not deliver. 1.9 million jobs have been lost since he spent $850 billion to save them. That is just the tip of the iceberg. The mortage loan modification program has been a disaster. Efforts to jumpstart the economy have come home to roost such as the first time home buyers rebate, "cash for clunkers", etc. If you tie them all together, it will give a Republican candidate an opportunity to state that Obama has "gimmicks" and "programs" that usually fail, but does not have a coherent economic policy that can give certainty of a solid growing U.S. economy to business leaders, markets, IMF, allies, etc. I really think if this was Obama's only issue, it's the most powerful by far and he has very little chance of re-election.

OH and IN will remember the hundreds of thousands of jobs the GM/Chrysler bailout saved.

(3) There has been some shift of Congressional seats, and as a result, Electoral College votes, away from some blue states to red ones. New York and Illinois both are losing seats I believe, but haven't looked at it in a while. These seats are being picked up by Southern and Western states that are growing. In a close election this may tip the balance.

The Ryan plan to kill Medicare is 50/50 to give the House back to the Dems. As I state above Obama can lose IN, NC, FL, OH and twenty more EV and still win.

(4) It will be hard for Obama to keep some of the "one-time" electoral wins. North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado to name a few. Pennsylvania has shifted since 2008, and could present the other major state issue along with Ohio and Florida.

The ONE-Time election is of a Republican in PA where there are over 1M more Dems. CO elected a Dem for the Seante in 2010 and has more Hispanic voters for 2012. it will stay blue.

 

[TheShot]

obama camp believes Indiana is too far gone, and won't spend money there unless something changes.

they will vigorously defend some of the other traditionally red gains, such as VA and NC. they think it's important symbolically, as well as electorally.

by the math, obama can lose FL and OH and still win easily. realistically, however, those are such huge and bellwether states, that it is unlikely any candidate would lose both and not lose a bunch elsewhere, too. (not saying he will lose them, so no freakout please.)

 

[ncsportsnut1]

Why the deck is stacked against a second term for Obama:

(1) Florida and Ohio are the first keys to an electoral landslide for a Republican candidate. If the Republican candidate wins either state, it is highly unlikely that Obama can overcome that loss. Those states are two of the worst hit and if the election were held today Obama could not win either. It's worth noting that both states have Republican governors and strong organizations. Ohio had popular Democrat governor in 2008.

In FL the GOP Gov has a 29% approval rating. In OH, the GOP gov has a 38% and dropping approval rating.

Even if Obama loses -OH, FL, IN and MC hewil lstill have 290+ EV, Thus your premise has no basis in reality.

RJ: Obama will lose Florida and Ohio because of the overall economic situation in those two states. I noted that both governors elected since 2008 are Republican simply because of the fact that there will be strong ground organizations ready-made for the Republican candidate. The popularity of the governor is not a factor-it's the economy and the organization.

(20 It's the economy stupid. Even if the unemployment dips to, let's say, 8 or 8.5, that doesn't relieve Obama of the cinderblock of the poor economy. He now has to defend actions he took as President. The stimulus is going to be front and center because he pushed it and said the stimulus will do X, Y, and Z, yet, HIS program did not deliver. 1.9 million jobs have been lost since he spent $850 billion to save them. That is just the tip of the iceberg. The mortage loan modification program has been a disaster. Efforts to jumpstart the economy have come home to roost such as the first time home buyers rebate, "cash for clunkers", etc. If you tie them all together, it will give a Republican candidate an opportunity to state that Obama has "gimmicks" and "programs" that usually fail, but does not have a coherent economic policy that can give certainty of a solid growing U.S. economy to business leaders, markets, IMF, allies, etc. I really think if this was Obama's only issue, it's the most powerful by far and he has very little chance of re-election.

OH and IN will remember the hundreds of thousands of jobs the GM/Chrysler bailout saved.

You conveniently missed the overall impact of all of the various economic issues: foreclosures are no where near completed; construction industry in the tank; home values continue to plummet; 25% of homeowners upside down; High unemployment and even higher underemployment; ending of Fed Reserve's "robbing Peter to pay Paul" program on 6/30 will continue to give rise to inflationary pressures along with fuel, and now with looming corn shortage, food prices will escalate even more; highest unemployment is in the black population causing disenchantment with key voter group; deficit, debt, no budget produced by Democratic Senate in over two years proof of no leadership on budgetary issues. There is no economic plan put forward by Obama Period.

(3) There has been some shift of Congressional seats, and as a result, Electoral College votes, away from some blue states to red ones. New York and Illinois both are losing seats I believe, but haven't looked at it in a while. These seats are being picked up by Southern and Western states that are growing. In a close election this may tip the balance.

The Ryan plan to kill Medicare is 50/50 to give the House back to the Dems. As I state above Obama can lose IN, NC, FL, OH and twenty more EV and still win.

Again you miss the point. If Obama begins losing some of the normally red states where he won in 2008, most, not a few, MOST will turn back to their normal voting patterns. No policy difference can make up for a poor candidate, and make no mistake, Obama's shine is gone and he seems incapable of staying on script, i.e., "economy hit by a truck", " shovel ready wasn't shovel ready hahaha" and other misspeaking that will hurt him this go-round

(4) It will be hard for Obama to keep some of the "one-time" electoral wins. North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado to name a few. Pennsylvania has shifted since 2008, and could present the other major state issue along with Ohio and Florida.

The ONE-Time election is of a Republican in PA where there are over 1M more Dems. CO elected a Dem for the Seante in 2010 and has more Hispanic voters for 2012. it will stay blue.

Pennsylvania is less likely to go Republican than Ohio and Florida, but it is too early by far to write them into the blue state column for sure. talk to me about Pennsylvania in January 2012.

RJ, as you are normally analytical and factual, it is really surprising that you have somewhat put on your blinders and not looking at Obama's predicament more realistically. If the unemployment stays stuck, you are looking at a landslide just like this thread's author predicted where Obama may only win 8-10 states. What happens between now and 12/31/11 is crucial economically for Obama, and there is very little good news predicted. The electorate will start to solidify against him in spring 2012 and he will not be able to change many minds after 4 years in office.

 

[ncsportsnut1]

sorry, I tried putting some of my responses to RJ's comments in the text, so some are there and others at end of response.

 

[RJKarl]

The demographics in FL, OH, PA are trending against the GOP. It's going to take a meltdown for Obama to lose.