Why the deck is stacked against a second term for Obama:
(1) Florida and Ohio are the first keys to an electoral landslide for a Republican candidate. If the Republican candidate wins either state, it is highly unlikely that Obama can overcome that loss. Those states are two of the worst hit and if the election were held today Obama could not win either. It's worth noting that both states have Republican governors and strong organizations. Ohio had popular Democrat governor in 2008.
In FL the GOP Gov has a 29% approval rating. In OH, the GOP gov has a 38% and dropping approval rating.
Even if Obama loses -OH, FL, IN and MC hewil lstill have 290+ EV, Thus your premise has no basis in reality.
(20 It's the economy stupid. Even if the unemployment dips to, let's say, 8 or 8.5, that doesn't relieve Obama of the cinderblock of the poor economy. He now has to defend actions he took as President. The stimulus is going to be front and center because he pushed it and said the stimulus will do X, Y, and Z, yet, HIS program did not deliver. 1.9 million jobs have been lost since he spent $850 billion to save them. That is just the tip of the iceberg. The mortage loan modification program has been a disaster. Efforts to jumpstart the economy have come home to roost such as the first time home buyers rebate, "cash for clunkers", etc. If you tie them all together, it will give a Republican candidate an opportunity to state that Obama has "gimmicks" and "programs" that usually fail, but does not have a coherent economic policy that can give certainty of a solid growing U.S. economy to business leaders, markets, IMF, allies, etc. I really think if this was Obama's only issue, it's the most powerful by far and he has very little chance of re-election.
OH and IN will remember the hundreds of thousands of jobs the GM/Chrysler bailout saved.
(3) There has been some shift of Congressional seats, and as a result, Electoral College votes, away from some blue states to red ones. New York and Illinois both are losing seats I believe, but haven't looked at it in a while. These seats are being picked up by Southern and Western states that are growing. In a close election this may tip the balance.
The Ryan plan to kill Medicare is 50/50 to give the House back to the Dems. As I state above Obama can lose IN, NC, FL, OH and twenty more EV and still win.
(4) It will be hard for Obama to keep some of the "one-time" electoral wins. North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado to name a few. Pennsylvania has shifted since 2008, and could present the other major state issue along with Ohio and Florida.
The ONE-Time election is of a Republican in PA where there are over 1M more Dems. CO elected a Dem for the Seante in 2010 and has more Hispanic voters for 2012. it will stay blue.
