Obvious Improvement is Obvious: Our Team's In-Conference Stats

[bcobbdeacs]

The sad thing is most of us knew that the schedule we had with so many home games to start the year was a fools hope. If we had split those games home and away we probably wound have gotten to January 5-7 instead of 10-2. I am not sure we are any better at all than last year.

 

[WFU Lurker]

Wake isn't any better than it was last year. Folks like DC and JB are left with egg on their face once again. Positive momentum? Not as far as I can see.

 

[Strickland33]

Wake isn't any better than it was last year. Folks like DC and JB are left with egg on their face once again. Positive momentum? Not as far as I can see.

And the numbers prove it.

Through 12-games last year, we were 4-8 with an average margin of defeat at 14.3. This year, we're 4-8 with an average margin of 13.4. If you've been following at home, then you'll notice the regression, like in all statistics, back to Buzz's pitiful mean.

Individually - after last night:
-Travis is, once again, our leading scorer in ACC-play as Codi regresses back toward the mean (10.9 ppg on 40.9% FG)
-Devin's numbers have fallen below his freshman averages (10.7 ppg and 8.5 rpg vs. 10.5 ppg and 6.1 rpg)
-Madison overcomes both Codi and Devin as a free throw shooter (Travis, Coron, and Cav are still tops in this category, though)

 

[PhDeac]

Strickland lights another truth bomb using conference stats.

 

[DCDeac]

Wake isn't any better than it was last year. Folks like DC and JB are left with egg on their face once again. Positive momentum? Not as far as I can see.

Yeah, I'll take that one. With wins over UNC, NC State, Notre Dame, and winning an actual ACC road game I don't think it was at all unreasonable to say we were better at that point than we were last year. Of course, the entire point of the post was that while we were obviously better (more ACC wins at that point in the year, better kenpom, better win total, better stats) we still weren't significantly better enough to even entertain the possibility of retaining [Redacted].

GaTech derailed everything. Before Codi got hurt in that game we were headed for a solidly mediocre year and a bubble NIT team. There's no excusing the 2nd half of GaTech or falling apart against FSU. Easily the worst basketball Wake's played all year. Showed exactly how fragile and flawed this team is.

I'll always be a players first, coach 2nd fan. I think Codi is the leader and coach of this team at this point, and for the players' sakes I wish we could fire [Redacted] today so they could play some ball in a positive environment that isn't under the microscope as a referendum on their shitty coach. But that wouldn't be good for the program so it won't happen. I played for [Redacted]-like coach in high school, and I know that there's nothing worse than the feeling that any success you show on the court will be lapped up by folks as a success for your garbage coach when the truth is it's in spite of him, not because of him. I think you can see that in Devin's "me against the world" attitude on the court. Very common attitude to adopt in such a situation.

If FSU is an indication of what's to come for the remainder of the year, this team has clearly regressed this season and is currently in free fall. I didn't think that would happen and I was certainly wrong on that account. There's been an underlying theme this year that the assistant coaches were responsible for some of our improvement - and I bought into that since when a head coach is headed out the door a lot of times assistants take a bigger role. Whether [Redacted] just squashes that or they're simply not getting it done, that's clearly not happening either. The lack of the team's focus in the 2nd halves of the FSU and GATech games was abhorrent. Lazy passes, defensive breakdowns, etc... We looked like we did 3 years ago. None of our coaches are leading this team.

I will say in this case I'm glad I was wrong. Makes firing [Redacted] a no-brainer and this should be a decent year to hire a coach. Coming off the Clawson hire and having endured this shit for 4 years, Wellman knows he needs a home run hire and it sounds like the process has already started. Fingers crossed. Codi/Devin/Moto/Shelton/Cav is a decent group to build on. I still think we're a potential Sweet 16 team when Codi's a senior if we make a good hire.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

Yeah, I'll take that one. With wins over UNC, NC State, Notre Dame, and winning an actual ACC road game I don't think it was at all unreasonable to say we were better at that point than we were last year. Of course, the entire point of the post was that while we were obviously better (more ACC wins at that point in the year, better kenpom, better win total, better stats) we still weren't significantly better enough to even entertain the possibility of retaining [Redacted].

GaTech derailed everything. Before Codi got hurt in that game we were headed for a solidly mediocre year and a bubble NIT team. There's no excusing the 2nd half of GaTech or falling apart against FSU. Easily the worst basketball Wake's played all year. Showed exactly how fragile and flawed this team is.

The win total and stats were deceiving as we played bad teams who played badly early in the season. NCSU, UNC, and ND looked terrible, and our road win was against an awful team missing their leading scorers. I think you are missing the point about how wrong you were. We weren't better but not good enough. We just weren't better.

 

[DCDeac]

Disagree, but whatever, can't really argue with you about anything that would shed even the slightest bit of positive light on this team, however brief it may be. Notre Dame beat Duke, UNC is not terrible and had just beaten Kentucky and Michigan State. NC State almost beat Syracuse, and we looked decent against Syracuse. We made it onto the bubble in one columnist's NCAA bracket. No argument that VaTech was terrible but we had zero ACC road wins last year and the ACC was even worse then. Hardly anyone on the board thought we weren't better at that point - shit even DV7 admitted it and he's almost as negative as you. How much better was the question, and most (including me) agreed it wasn't much.

I don't really get how some of you guys run Kenpom out there relentlessly to prove we're bad, but when we beat teams with decent Kenpom ratings suddenly those wins don't count for anything because, you know, weak schedule or the sucked the day they played us. It's nonsense.

It's ok to admit we had a couple decent wins and things were looking slightly brighter before the slightest bit of adversity hit us and we folded like a cheap lawn chair. Now we're free-falling and in full-on disaster mode. Back when almost everyone thought we'd beat GA Tech to get to 15-7 (5-4), Jaybone was even sitting pretty for 18 wins. To argue we weren't better is ridiculous, but typical.

 

[Strickland33]

Disagree, but whatever, can't really argue with you about anything that would shed even the slightest bit of positive light on this team, however brief it may be.

One could actually say the same thing about you.

Notre Dame beat Duke, UNC is not terrible and had just beaten Kentucky and Michigan State. NC State almost beat Syracuse, and we looked decent against Syracuse. We made it onto the bubble in one columnist's NCAA bracket. No argument that VaTech was terrible but we had zero ACC road wins last year and the ACC was even worse then. Hardly anyone on the board thought we weren't better at that point - shit even DV7 admitted it and he's almost as negative as you. How much better was the question, and most (including me) agreed it wasn't much.

We didn't have an ACC road win last year because we didn't get to play BC or VT on the road. The rest of this is valid, though. Credit where credit is due. KP #21 UNC, #59 St Bonnie, and #69 NC State are among the best wins in the Buzz-era (think over that for a second...jeezuz). But, yanno what - be consistent. We (barely) beat a Notre Dame team without its star and decimated by injuries. We (barely) beat a Richmond team that lost it's best player. Our lone true-road win came against #188 Virginia Tech. Our OOC was a joke beyond all belief (see below) and we dropped almost every game worth a crap.

I don't really get how some of you guys run Kenpom out there relentlessly to prove we're bad, but when we beat teams with decent Kenpom ratings suddenly those wins don't count for anything because, you know, weak schedule or the sucked the day they played us. It's nonsense.

Yeah, this is where your argument descends back into stupidity. Kenpom gets more accurate as the year progresses. Let's see where our 14 wins stand:

#21 North Carolina
#59 St. Bonaventure
#63 Richmond
#69 NC State
#87 Notre Dame
#148 Southern Cal
#188 Virginia Tech
#212 Colgate
#237 VMI
#270 Tulane
#307 UNC Greensboro
#320 Jacksonville
#348 Presbyterian (4th worst team in D1)
#350 Citadel (2nd worst team in D1)

The Richmond win is objectively questionable to the case for improvement because we all watched what happened in that win (and I don't know who is knocking the validity of our wins over UNC - most were thrilled, iirc - NC State, and St Bonnies). Yet, what people actually discount - and a point you're having trouble comprehending - is the fact that we played four bottom 300 teams, three bottom 200 teams, and our only wins away from home came against 148 and 188. When you're banking on the literal number of wins as a proxy for improvement, color me (and most, seemingly) unimpressed. Last year, we beat Miami and NC State. One would expect obvious improvement to be obvious. The takeaway is that it just isn't...

It's ok to admit we had a couple decent wins and things were looking slightly brighter before the slightest bit of adversity hit us and we folded like a cheap lawn chair. Now we're free-falling and in full-on disaster mode. Back when almost everyone thought we'd beat GA Tech to get to 15-7 (5-4), Jaybone was even sitting pretty for 18 wins. To argue we weren't better is ridiculous, but typical.

This is also wrong. Most posters assumed that we'd be here; there's a full thread that throws this out. That you didn't is fine, but don't project on to other people. The funny part is that the sunshine brigade called out the "lunatic fringe" after people weren't impressed following the Richmond, VT, and ND victories and the KU, Syracuse, etc. moral victories when those games are exemplary of the the precise reasons why we haven't actually improved at all!

We weren't better and we're not better. It's time that we all move on from that fact.

 

[Ayo]

^We didn't play UNC-Wilmington, Strick, but I agree with everything in that post. It's truly amazing how many cupcakes there were on the schedule and all of the good fortune we've had with opponents and injuries, yet Buzz is still fighting for that elusive winning season.

 

[pinochadeac]

^We didn't play UNC-Wilmington, Strick, but I agree with everything in that post. It's truly amazing how many cupcakes there were on the schedule and all of the good fortune we've had with opponents and injuries, yet Buzz is still fighting for that elusive winning season.

Ron did his best to prop up his ole friend with that bullshit schedule. However, Buzz will be Buzz. Rock bottom is just something that Jeff just powers through.

 

[ChrisL68]

Last year we beat

#14 Miami
#34 NC State
#40 Virginia
#77 Xavier

The game we won at the buzzer over Richmond at home, we lost at the end against Richmond on the road.

Last year's team was actually closer to having a better ACC record than this team. We lost games at the buzzer @ BC, @ VT and GT.

We were never really better than last year, which was pretty apparent if you watched us sneak out wins at the buzzer at home after getting outrebounded by 20. In those 3 home wins (UNC, State and ND), our opponents went like 5-50 from 3. We were lucky to win all 3 of those games.

We played UNC when they were playing about their worst basketball of the season. They have turned it around and will spank us next week.

Same pretty much with State.

Also, there was a time last year too where DCDeac was giddy about team improvement and talking possible NIT bid before the bottom fell out.

It was during the stretch where we beat Xavier, Virginia, BC and State all at home early in the season. Deja Vu.

The last two years have actually pretty closely mirrored each other. Wake better get most of its victories early in the ACC season at home.

 

[GoDeacsGo]

Reading a few recent threads 2 things really disappoint me about how far Wake has slipped.
1. Bz getting excited about the chance to get to a .500 record this season.
2. We have a stat called "average margin of defeat".

 

[Strickland33]

Yeah, so today is the reason why an asterisk is necessary on the first Wake-Carolina game if you're interested in gauging obvious improvement.

Carolina shoots 58% FG, 73% 3FG, and 83% FT and we lose by 33 points.
Carolina shoots 38% FG, 13% 3FG, and 63% FT and we win by 7 points.

This team unequivocally sucks at a historically competitive level for Jeff [Redacted]-coached basketball teams. No more and no less.

May karma come back around for the players that have had to deal with this bullshit and don't know anything else.

 

[BobStackFan4Life]

I feel sorry for Travis. I could not imagine having to spend 4 years with Bz. This is your fault Ron Wellman.

 

[Dino Gaudino]

Objectively, it was the worst defensive performance yet under Bzzz.

 

[Ayo]

Codi now shooting under 40% in ACC play (39.7%).

 

[Strickland33]

Codi now shooting under 40% in ACC play (39.7%).

The splits are pretty damning in regards to the effect of a miserable OOC on Codi's overall numbers.

November --> 17.6 ppg (49% 3FG, 32% 3FG, 67.3% FT), 2.8 rpg, and 4.5 apg/1.3 TO
December --> 16.0 ppg (46% FG, 27.3% 3FG, 79.2% FT), 3.6 rpg, 3.2 apg/3.6 TO
January --> 10.8 ppg (39% FG, 5.9% 3FG, 56.8% FT), 2.4 rpg, 3.8 apg/1.6 TO
February --> 9.2 ppg (40.8% FG, 11.1% 3FG, 45.5% FT), 2.6 rpg, 4.2 apg/2.6 TO

Buzzing around in November and December helped absolutely nobody outside of people like Jeff [Redacted], Ron Wellman, DCDeac, jaybone, braces, etc. who needed pretty desperately to statistically pad their LOWF-worldviews. It's pretty pitiful, tbh.

 

[marquee moon]

Yeah, I'll take that one. With wins over UNC, NC State, Notre Dame, and winning an actual ACC road game I don't think it was at all unreasonable to say we were better at that point than we were last year. Of course, the entire point of the post was that while we were obviously better (more ACC wins at that point in the year, better kenpom, better win total, better stats) we still weren't significantly better enough to even entertain the possibility of retaining [Redacted].

GaTech derailed everything. Before Codi got hurt in that game we were headed for a solidly mediocre year and a bubble NIT team. There's no excusing the 2nd half of GaTech or falling apart against FSU. Easily the worst basketball Wake's played all year. Showed exactly how fragile and flawed this team is.

I'll always be a players first, coach 2nd fan. I think Codi is the leader and coach of this team at this point, and for the players' sakes I wish we could fire [Redacted] today so they could play some ball in a positive environment that isn't under the microscope as a referendum on their shitty coach. But that wouldn't be good for the program so it won't happen. I played for [Redacted]-like coach in high school, and I know that there's nothing worse than the feeling that any success you show on the court will be lapped up by folks as a success for your garbage coach when the truth is it's in spite of him, not because of him. I think you can see that in Devin's "me against the world" attitude on the court. Very common attitude to adopt in such a situation.

If FSU is an indication of what's to come for the remainder of the year, this team has clearly regressed this season and is currently in free fall. I didn't think that would happen and I was certainly wrong on that account. There's been an underlying theme this year that the assistant coaches were responsible for some of our improvement - and I bought into that since when a head coach is headed out the door a lot of times assistants take a bigger role. Whether [Redacted] just squashes that or they're simply not getting it done, that's clearly not happening either. The lack of the team's focus in the 2nd halves of the FSU and GATech games was abhorrent. Lazy passes, defensive breakdowns, etc... We looked like we did 3 years ago. None of our coaches are leading this team.

I will say in this case I'm glad I was wrong. Makes firing [Redacted] a no-brainer and this should be a decent year to hire a coach. Coming off the Clawson hire and having endured this shit for 4 years, Wellman knows he needs a home run hire and it sounds like the process has already started. Fingers crossed. Codi/Devin/Moto/Shelton/Cav is a decent group to build on. I still think we're a potential Sweet 16 team when Codi's a senior if we make a good hire.

Portly and delusional (your last sentences)

Our players suck, tubby

 

[Strickland33]

How obvious was our team's improvement? Here are some very basic comparisons between everybody's numbers between this and last year:

Wake's ACC Conference Record:

2012-2013 --> 6-12 (kp #??)

2013-2014 --> 6-12 (kp #118)

Wake Players in 2013-2014 ACC Play:

Travis McKie:
2012-2013 --> 12.9 ppg (46.2% FG, 36.2% 3FG, and 74.6% FT), 6.4 rpg, 1.3 apg/2.3 T, 1.3 spg, and 1.2 bpg in 32.6 mpg
2013-2014 --> 11.8 ppg (43.6% FG, 31.6% 3FG, and 79.5% FT), 3.6 rpg, 1.1 apg/1.3 TO, 0.9 spg, and 0.4 bpg in 30.6 mpg

Devin Thomas:
2012-2013 --> 10.7 ppg (52.4% FG and 57.6% FT), 8.5 rpg, 1.3 apg/2.9 TO, 1.1 spg, and 1.5 bpg in 29.4 mpg
2013-2014 --> 10.6 ppg (55.0% FG and 50.1% FT), 6.2 rpg, 1.6 apg/2.7 TO, 0.8 spg, and 0.9 bpg in 29.1 mpg

Codi Miller-McIntyre:
2012-2013 --> 7.9 ppg (38.2% FG, 25.0% 3FG, and 50% FT), 2.9 rpg, 2.3 apg/1.8 TO, and 0.7 spg in 29.2 mpg
2013-2014 --> 9.8 ppg (39.9% FG, 9.4% 3FG, and 54% FT), 2.4 rpg, 4.3 apg/1.9 TO, and 0.7 spg in 31.3 mpg

Tyler Cavanaugh:
2012-2013 --> 3.9 ppg (30.4% FG, 22.9% 3FG, and 68.8% FT), 2.1 rpg, 0.6 apg/1.2 TO and 0.1 bpg in 16.2 mpg
2013-2014 --> 9.4 ppg (43.8% FG, 36.4% 3FG, and 84.5% FT), 3.0 rpg, 0.8 apg/1.3 TO and 0.4 bpg in 22.1 mpg

Bill Moto:
2012-2013 --> 6.1 ppg (37% FG, 6.7% 3FG, and 64.8% FT), 4.2 rpg, 0.6 apg/1.1 TO, and 0.6 spg in 17.4 mpg
2013-2014 --> 8.2 ppg (50% FG, 100% 3FG, and 70.8% FT), 5.1 rpg, 0.7 apg/1.8 TO, and 0.6 spg in 22.1 mpg

Madison Jones:
2012-2013 --> 2.9 ppg (48.1% FG, 0% 3FG, and 54.5% FT), 1.1 rpg, 2.3 apg/1.9 TO, and 1.2 spg in 18.9 mpg
2013-2014 --> 2.8 ppg (37.5% FG, 0% 3FG, and 55.6% FT), 1.8 rpg, 2.4 apg/2.1 TO, and 1.2 spg in 20.3 mpg

Aaron Rountree:
2012-2013 --> 1.0 ppg (35.5% FG, 0% 3FG, and 60% FT), 1.4 rpg, 0.4 apg/0.5 TO, 0.7 spg, and 0.7 bpg in 9.3 mpg.
2013-2014 --> 1.2 ppg (36.0% FG, 16.7% 3FG and 40% FT), 1.4 rpg, 0.4 apg/0.3 TO, 0.5 spg, and 0.6 bpg in 9.5 mpg.

Andre Washington:
2012-2013 --> 1.0 ppg (37.5% FG and 62.5% FT), 0.6 rpg, 0.0 apg/0.3 TO and 0.3 bpg in 5.1 mpg
2013-2014 --> 0.9 ppg (55.6% FG and 50% FT), 1.1 rpg, 0.0 apg/0.1 TO and 0.7 bpg in 5.9 mpg

...and our new players:

Coron Williams
2013-2014 --> 8.9 ppg (45% FG, 35.5% 3FG, and 84.6% FT), 1.9 rpg, 1.1 apg/0.3 TO, and 0.6 spg in 25.2 mpg

Miles Overton
2013-2014 --> 2.8 ppg (38.2% FG, 40.9% 3FG, and 53.8% FT), 0.7 rpg, 0.7 apg/0.5 TO, and 0.3 spg in 8.7 mpg

 

[Ayo]

Yeesh, Codi finished below 40% FG% and didn't even hit double digits in PPG? Devin's RPG down 2.3. Some respectable improvement from Cav and Moto. Everyone else, yuck.