• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Offical Sports Betting Thread

Newcastle +315 ML. Didn't expect to win it, but I thought there was great value with the Manchester United cluster going on. Soccer is saving my butt this year.
 
Strong call by me on the Packers/Cowboys game. I'm going to try to not bet on sports anymore.
 
Shooshmoo said:
Strong call by me on the Packers/Cowboys game. I'm going to try to not bet on sports anymore.
Click to expand...

Haha... I almost posted about that line yesterday. Was thinking that I had to be missing something... Adams officially out for the Packers and the line didn't budge. In fact, it seemed to move closer to 3 from 3.5.

Was too weird for me, so I stayed away. Glad I did.
 
61raddeac said:
Dallas is 1-17-1 ATS after losing as favorite in a non-divisional game.

I hate reading these trends that involved multiple different players, coaches, over a period of years.
Click to expand...

Guys it’s because Dallas can’t win games after losing as a favorite in a non-divisional game lol
 
Well, still alive after taking New England in our suicide pool. Started with 46 in it and we had 1/2 go out last week Rams and Ravens. Yesterday another 10 went out because Indy beat KC. Leaves 12 of us who had either NE or Philly. Only real choice I see for the coming week is the Ravens at home against Cincy. [Redskins & Dolphins play each other and have already taken Dallas who plays the Jets]
 
I love the EPL:
Brighton
Villa
Watford-ShefU draw
Palace
Wolves
Newcastle x3

Won't last but that was a hella nice weekend
 
MTSU @ Florida Atlantic (-10.5)
Florida (+12.5) @ LSU
Nebraska @ Minnesota Over 49.5
Toledo @ Bowling Green (+26.5)
Northern Illinois @ Ohio Over 50

Anyone feel great about any bets this weekend?
 
So you either think that Florida's defense can slow down LSU or their offense can score enough to keep that game close ? I'm not so sure. That one has backdoor disappointment for one side written all over it.
 
Can someone explain why UVA is +2.5 @ Miami? I get that UVA probably isn't some great team, but it isn't like we have any reason to be impressed by what Miami has shown.
 
Cuse +4.5
GT/Duke Under 48.5
Kent State -14
Army/WKU Under 43
Fresno State +3.5
Iowa +4
LSU -13


Surprised by the line move in UVA/Miami. The game opened at Miami -1. With the public on UVA (68%), the line has moved to Miami -2.5 which means the pros are on Miami. Miami is a total mess right now. Their two wins are Bethune Cookman and C. Michigan, and the Canes struggled with C. Michigan. UVA has had an extra week to prepare after a deceiving final score at ND, UVA's defense is stout. Don't see Miami scoring many points (unless the Canes get strip sack scores like ND did). If this line goes to 3, will have to take the UVA side as either UVA wins outright or the game is decided late.
 
Last edited:
Miami’s post-game win expectancy against UNC and VPI was over 85 percent in each. They’ve only lost close games and also have more talent overall than most teams they’re playing. Losing close games when you outgain the opponent (and hell generally win the eye test) may make your resume look bad but it doesn’t really impact predictions moving forward (since stats/Vegas don’t generally credit that teams are “good” or “bad” at winning close games).

Also the close game Virginia played against ODU is dragging them. That’s the equivalent of Wake struggling with Elon (or Rice if the game had been in Winston).

SP+ likes Miami 27-20. Sagarin likes UVA by 6-7 though. Interesting spot overall. I’m staying away but like Miami to win - maybe something like 24-21?
 
Sometimes you have to look why a team out-gains its opponent. Miami was down 28-0 in the first half against VT. At that point, VT went into conservative play calling mode and Miami has to be ultra-aggressive and essentially threw on every down (469 yards passing). I don't give Miami much credit for out-gaining VT last week, because the yardage was dictated by Miami's early collapse. FWIW, UVA is much more likely to force TOs than VT was against Miami.

The game that exposed Miami was Central Michigan. They are a bottom-tier MAC team. Wisconsin beat C. Mich 61-0. Miami had 51 yards rushing and averaged 1.5 ypc against C. Michigan, while scoring a total of 17 points. Miami won't be able to run on UVA, and if Miami is in throw a lot mode, that will lead to picks (Miami threw 4 INTs against VT).
 
Miami also lost the turnover battle 5-0 and only lost by a touchdown. It’s not like they barely outgained VPI either. They outgained them by 230 yards. I understand the “going conservative” argument but when in the first quarter VPI barely had a higher success rate offensively (just benefitted from the turnovers) and then Miami slaughtered them the rest of the game on offense.

Definitely a bad loss for Miami but losing the turnover battle by 5 while out gaining a team by 230 yards doesn’t provide too much predictive value from a one game sample IMO.
 
Def shaping up as a nerds vs. fogies showdown. And the nerds usually prevail
 
There is some predictive value in factoring in that Miami has been in the habit of losing games against every competitive opponent that it plays. Fully expect the UVA/Miami game to be close and competitive (if it's not competitive, Miami would be the more likely team to lose big IMO), and in such games, UVA, Mendenhall and Perkins have a big edge over Miami, Diaz and Miami's back up QB Perry. All that said, if you like the Miami side, the people that bet on college football for a living agree with you.

I'm not giving Miami any credit for it's desperate comeback against a bad VT team that Duke beat by 35 the week before.

If the line gets to 3, I will take my chances with UVA.
 
feel like there's a market here for someone to step in and broker cases when Pilch/numbers/ATS are on opposite sides of a game, taking half the vig
 
Love bantering about sides and totals because it forces you to look deeper into the matchup.

FWIW, neither numbers nor I are picking the Miami/UVA game we are just leaning to opposite sides. We are head to head on FL/LSU and I like my action on that one.
 
Yeah I’m not touching that game. I think we probably agree that the value there is UVA ML.

Seeing that SP is at like 59 percent this year ATS. I’ve actually tracked that his model has over projected totals this year so I’ve hammered the under in games where he has a 5+ point under difference. I’m up 8 units on those bets so far. Not many ones I like this week though.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top