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Offical Sports Betting Thread

To the Colorado-Nebraska chaos point, 94% of the Draftking bets so far on the spread are on Colorado. 91% of the ML bets are on Colorado. Vegas absolutely salivating. Nebraska had the highest expected post game win percentage from Week 0/1 for a team that lost (just shy of 95% to beat Minnesota) and SHOULD be 1-0. The flip side is Nebraska has made an artform out of losing close games even though we generally know that's not a "skill" and largely just shorter form variance.
 
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Wakeforest22890 said:
To the Colorado-Nebraska chaos point, 94% of the Draftking bets so far on the spread are on Colorado. 91% of the ML bets are on Colorado. Vegas absolutely salivating. Nebraska had the highest expected post game win percentage from Week 0/1 for a team that lost (just shy of 95% to beat Minnesota) and SHOULD be 0-1. The flip side is Nebraska has made an artform out of losing close games even though we generally know that's not a "skill" and largely just shorter form variance.
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How high do you reckon that line will get in Colorado's favor? Ordinarily, the Nebraska ML would be the play, but they just specialize in close, heartbreaking losses I'd probably just stick with a spread bet.

Early thoughts on other lines
Illinois +3 at Kansas
NCSU +7.5 vs ND
Purdue ML +124
LOL at the 36.5 O/U in the Iowa/Iowa St. game
ECU ML +140
Pitt -7 vs. Cincy
TT +6.5 vs. Oregon
UConn ML +136
Washington St. +6.5 vs. Wisconsin
 
I really don't know how much the line will actually move. I could see it getting to like 4.5 or so? I think the issue there is if it starts pushing too much above where it currently sits, it probably just gets hammered back down by sharps.

Yeah it's so hard to say "let's take Nebraska!"

Agreed on ECU and Purdue ML. I'll probably just take the points but those are fun ML bets. I really like UAB's chances at Georgia Southerrn as well at +6.5
 
I'm 14-9 through the first two weeks and with the promos/bonus/insurance bets am up just over 10.5 units. Those units are inflated though because roughly half of the bets got boosted from like -110 to +130 or better with profit boosts
 
JMU/UVA U 41.5 (opened at 44) - still like it. UVA may start a true freshman QB; will be an emotional game for the Hoos (they are honoring the three slain FB players). JMU did not look impressive against Bucknell; this past Saturday.

Also, lean to UVA (+7).
 
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Ole Miss @ Tulane is fascinating. Tulane opened +3.5 and that line has been bet up to 7.5. Ole Miss had one of the best performances of week 1 (yes it was Mercer but they still dominated) and Tulane outperformed expectations handily taking care of South Alabama. I don't have a good feel on that game overall and Ole Miss obviously has the talent advantage, but Tulane promises to be up for a home game against an SEC team in a ranked matchup and with the line over a touchdown it's tempting
 
the nfl is dialed in

i kinda like the texans +10 at baltimore

week 1 underdogs of 10+ points tend to cover (63% since 2000)
 
I want to take the Lions +6.5 since the chiefs are without Chris Jones, but it’s hard to pull the trigger and bet against Mahomes.
 
Nebraska at Colorado is such interesting game on how lines are set and the impact of betting markets.

The lookahead line on this game before the season started had Nebraska favored (IIRC, Nebraska -7). Before the season, Colorado's power rating was adjusted off how terrible the Buffs were in 2022, and there was so much uncertainty about Deion's impact in Boulder and whether 80 new players on a roster could be integrated so quickly. After Colorado not only covers, but wins as a 21 point dog in week 1, Colorado received a big power rating bump, but there still is lingering impact on Colorado's power rating based upon Colorado's recent history.

Also, Nebraska covered and should have won as a 7 point dog against Minnesota last week. Two new coaches; completely revamped rosters, and a betting public that just wants to bet the house on Buffs. If you like Colorado, get down on the game ASAP as the line is only going to move up (Colorado is currently a 3 point favorite). There could be an opportunity for a middle if the line goes over 6. Normally, I would wait as long as possible and take Nebraska + as many points as I can get, but think there is chance that Colorado is just so mispriced, that they may go on a covering run. Reality is coming though, as the Buff play at #15 Oregon on September 23, and then host USC on September 30. The Pac-12 looks like they are headed for a compelling final season, which makes the realignment impact even sadder.
 
buckets said:
the nfl is dialed in

i kinda like the texans +10 at baltimore

week 1 underdogs of 10+ points tend to cover (63% since 2000)
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I have a strategy of playing survivor, picking the biggest favorite of the week, and then betting the underdog ML.

I'm usually out of survivor in the first few weeks, but the ML win helps to offset it (depending on the week it hits / the size of the dog that won).

So basically, I suck at survivor AND also lose a lot of ML NFL bets!
 
Are we doing a boards NFL survivor game?
 
Kind of funny how Nebraska @ Colorado is now "must-see TV" when it looked like a shit matchup a few months ago.
 
Liberty -10 against NMSU is also interesting to me. I had that two touchdowns. I hate betting on Liberty because I want them to fail but hit them week one against BGSU and I may go back to the well here
 
PhDeac said:
Fixed.
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Nah. I'm just interested in this one because it the home opener coming off that big win, and Rhule's team blew the game last week against Minny.

I don't plan on watching many Colorado games this year. Just happens that I watched the first one and it was good (and every other game in that time slot sucked). And I'll watch the second one (as long as it stays interesting).
 
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