Wrangor
Go Deacs
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You said 50 was a given.
There are no givens in the NBA. I am not a #spursdonk, but I have a difficult time with any opinion that undersells Pop's value as a coach. The guy is a genius...But let's compare the rosters from last year:
17-18:
PG: DeJounte Murray
SG: Danny Green
SF: Kyle Anderson
PF: Pau Gasol
FC: Lamarcus Aldridge
RV: Rudy Gay
RV: Patty Mills
RV: Manu Ginobli
RV: Bryn Forbes
RV: Davis Pertans
RV: Tony Parker
18-19:
PG: DeJounte Murray
SG: Demar Derozan
SF: Marco Bellinelli
PF: Pau Gasol
FC: LaMarcus Aldridge
RV: Patty Mills
RV: Rudy Gay
RV: Manu Ginobli
RV: Jacob Poeltl
RV: Lonnie Walker
17-18 won 47 games. They are younger, more athletic, and a better shooting team than last year.
They essentially traded:
Tony Parker (Charlotte) - awful last year
Danny Green (Toronto) - excellent defender, but literally can do nothing but shoot spot up threes on offense (37.6, 39.2, 38.7 FG for the past 3 years)
Kyle Anderson (Memphis) - decent role player, who can fill a lot of gaps
and in return received:
Demar Derozan (Trade) - legitimate allstar, offensively focused, but not a complete zero on defense
Jacob Poeltl (Trade) - excellent reserve big man who can really defend and has a versatile offensive game
Lonnie Walker (Draft) - Lottery type talent, big time athlete and potential defender
Marco Belinelli (FA) - replaces Green's shooting, and more diverse offensive game.
Its hard for me to believe that anyone wouldn't see this years squad as SIGNIFICANTLY better than last years. Particularly when you consider that your star player was causing all sorts of unrest behind the scenes. Obviously a healthy and happy Kawhi is better than Demar, Poehtl, and a pick but this trade helped them become a playoff team once again. It is pointless to chase the Warriors in 4 years. This isn't a 45 win Eastern Team squad. This is an experienced, talented team with the best coach in the game (and one of the best of all time). If they stay reasonably healthy, I will be absolutely floored if they don't win 50 games. My guess is that they win 56. I don't want to bet anything, but that is my prediction. Pop is the real deal, and they have a deep and versatile lineup that has a nice identity. If you add a Jimmy Butler next year, this team becomes extremely dangerous.
They aren't going to beat a healthy Warriors team or Rockets team, but no is anyone else. Doesn't mean you can't put a team out there that could win a championship in the case of an unusual circumstance with 2 other teams. Other than those two teams, the Spurs could absolutely beat anyone else in a 7 game series.
Edited to add: Poeltl is a perfect Spurs type player, and he is going to be really good for them for a long time. They get him team controlled for 3 years, and will absolutely resign him for his prime years. As Gasol ages out (he will be gone for sure in 2, and I could foresee a scenario that moves him next summer to clear space for Butler) Poeltl will join LMA in the frontcourt. Murray, Derozan, Butler, Poeltl, LMA with a deep bench is a really good team in a year....
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