Hollinger with a good piece on Wembanaya and tanking.
John Hollinger analyzes Wembanyama's absolutely incredible game, but explains why tanking is not a strategy NBA teams should take on.
theathletic.com
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The combined impact of the two games has been to create a truly rare event in league annals: Major buzz about the draft before the NBA has even begun its season. Usually, we need the college season to get underway before that happens, but this year the likely top three picks in the draft all play outside the NCAA system. (This could be a sign of the times as well, with insurgents G League Ignite and Overtime Elite rostering the likely second and third picks, Henderson and forward Amen Thompson.)
While we’re here: The competition level in this game was significantly higher than what Wembanyama or Henderson might have faced in, say, the Big 10 or SEC. Actually, the fourth-best and fifth-best players on Wembanyama’s team were recent All-Conference players in those two leagues. For those old-schoolers who wonder if the French prodigy could be doing this at Duke or Gonzaga, donnez moi une break.
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The decision to tank isn’t just made willy-nilly by a general manager. This is one of the big-picture moves that absolutely, positively requires buy-in from ownership to pursue. And that adds another variable: Some owners are more than willing if the moment is right. Some are dead-set against it, and some in the middle are reluctant but persuadable.
And this week, the persuadability factor just went up. Waaaaay up. A general manager’s opinion on whether to tank might not have changed, but his owner’s receptiveness to the proposal sure as hell did. Not because any owners were there watching Wemby in person, but because, like I said above, this was an event.
Put yourself in the owners’ shoes: The buzz factor is now through the roof. No longer is your team tanking for some unknown quantity playing halfway around the globe, a maybe stacked upon the maybe of winning the lottery in the first place. Forget that; now you’re tanking for the biggest whale in the ocean. Everyone is talking about him and everyone knows who he is. And all your fans badly want you to tank, including all the VIPs you hobnob with at games and around town.
For owners, tanking just became cool.
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So, getting back to the big picture, I think we’re basically OK on the tanking front. It’s not that nobody will tank, but it’s pointless for teams to outdo each other beyond a certain point. Additionally, the play-in carrot adds real costs to the decision for middling teams.
Nonetheless, here’s where I expect to see the Wembanyama Effect: Don’t be surprised if some teams go much, much earlier than they otherwise would have. Instead of waiting ’til February, somebody might pull the plug in December. One could easily imagine a team like, say, Charlotte or Portland starting the year 8-19 and figuring “to hell with this.”
Do the math: If you know landing in the bottom six or seven is the goal, and that at least three teams have basically planted their flag in the ground already, you realize there just isn’t a lot of real estate left on Tank Island. Get in early, everyone; they’re not making more.
Ultimately, that’s why the tanking incentive will never totally go away regardless of what optimizations the league makes to the lottery process. Superstars have disproportionate value in the NBA, so the potential rewards are simply too great.
In the case of Wembanyama, in fact, they’ve arguably never been higher.