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Official 2022-23 College Basketball Thread: UCONN - One Shining Moment

Pilchard said:
Clemson is 10-3 in the ACC in first place, swept VT (and projected to finish 14-6) and the Tigers have a 17% chance for bid, while VT is 4-8 and is projected to finish 10-10 has a 43% chance...
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yeah. Torvik's model is interesting but it sure seems like he has been a bit ambitious with this particular undertaking (I think his predictive model is pretty bad).
 
DeacsATS said:
Splitting hairs, but the Pitt loss felt like a totally wasted opportunity... The game that felt like a literal foot into my ballsack was at home against NCSU.

But they both sucked.
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Especially now that those clowns slipped into the top 25 with a team that is very similar from a talent perspective.
 
I think 13 ACC wins and an ACCT win would be enough, but once again, the ACC absolutely sucking is robbing us of Q1 opps. That means finishing 6-1 in the final seven games. So win tonight, beat the shitty teams we have remaining at home, and then win 2/3 against Cuse/Miami/State. That path feels much, much easier with a win tonight, at least in my mind.
 
I hope we have finally dismissed the idea that we don’t need to bother rooting for ACC teams out of conference.

I been looking at the women’s team (14-10, 5-8, #78 NET) chances of making the tournament. I think they have a better chance than that men if they can pick up a few upsets because they only have 1 Q2 loss, no Q3 or Q4 losses and the ACC is a firmly 8 bid league. So the goal is being the 9th team. The men are fighting for fewer bids in a worse league.
 
PhDeac said:
I hope we have finally dismissed the idea that we don’t need to bother rooting for ACC teams out of conference.
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Yup... I 100% came around on this after last season. Begrudgingly, but all-in.

It didn't used to matter because the ACC was so much better than most every other conference.

That's not the case anymore.
 
Pilchard said:
Duke and UNC may have well have a 100% probability next to their names. The NCAAT isn't leaving out either one.
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Duke is 100% in. I look at their schedule and there is no way that they don't finish at least 11-9 in the ACC (12-8 is most likely) and that will be enough for them.

UNC, on the other hand, looks to me like 11-9 is most likely. But that 11-9 could also be 10-10 (or even 9-11). If UNC is 10-10 or 9-11 and poops the bed in the ACC Tourney... They are not getting in.

UNC is 1-7 in Quad 1 games, with that 1 win a OT win on a neutral court against #42 Ohio State (who is 11-12 and has lost 9 of their last 10 games).

For UNC to get in, they'd have to leapfrog another more deserving ACC team. Another reason why tonight's game is huge. If we can finish above UNC (& Duke) in the ACC standings, it makes it hard to leave us out and put them both in.
 
New ESPN article doesn't even have us as "Work to Do". Only ACC lock is Virginia, with Miami, Duke, UNC, State and Pitt as "should be in". Clemson and Va Tech both with "work to do".

If you would have told me 10 years ago the ACC would only have 1 team locked at this point, I'd think you were crazy. It's truly incredible how far we've fallen as a conference.

The Big 12 on the other hand has 5 locks. Even the Big East already has 2.
 
Pilchard said:
Clemson is 10-3 in the ACC in first place, swept VT (and projected to finish 14-6) and the Tigers have a 17% chance for bid, while VT is 4-8 and is projected to finish 10-10 has a 43% chance...

Duke and UNC may have well have a 100% probability next to their names. The NCAAT isn't leaving out either one.
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Clemson has two Quad 4 losses. They also have a significantly easier ACC schedule than Virginia Tech.

Clemson's only decent OOC win was at home against Penn State, which Virginia Tech also beat but on a neutral court. While neither had a particularly strong OOC schedule, Clemson's was nearly in the worst 10%.
 
Virginia and Miami feel like locks. They actually have some decent wins outside of the conference. There aren't many ACC teams that can say that.

Pitt, Clemson, & NCSU don't have much to point to... But if they can get to 14 conference wins, it'd be tough to eliminate them (especially if Duke/UNC has 12 and 11 ACC wins).

VT could be better than some of the teams already mentioned, but I don't think it matters when they are going to likely finish 10-10 or 11-9. If they can run the table (highly unlikely) and get to 12-8, they'd have a strong argument.

As far as Wake goes... I still think 13 wins is the magic number (probably not gonna happen). 12-8 could be interesting if we hold serve at home and also beat Miami.
 
Pitt beat Louisville by 34 points last night and moved up from #61 all the way to #60!
 
Looks like we’re 66 in Net now. UNC dropped one spot. These rankings are absolutely nuts.
 
WFUWaldo said:
Clemson has two Quad 4 losses. They also have a significantly easier ACC schedule than Virginia Tech.

Clemson's only decent OOC win was at home against Penn State, which Virginia Tech also beat but on a neutral court. While neither had a particularly strong OOC schedule, Clemson's was nearly in the worst 10%.
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Lets not leave out the fact that Clemson beat VT twice. Really hard to overcome that especially when Clemson has a far better conference record.
 
Looking at Kenpom today, our Luck ranking is 186th for a rating of 0.00, which I take to mean that we are neither lucky nor unlucky. I respectfully disagree. We are definitely unlucky.

(Yes, I know that's not what that metric really means)
 
Luck rating (Luck): This isn’t as complicated as some people think it is because luck and intangible things cannot be quantified. All this does is measure a team’s actual record with the projected record that KenPom spits out for them.
 
If the committee goes and gives 5 bids to the Mountain West, that will hurt our chances. They got 4 bids last year and quickly went 0-4.
Hard to convince me they are a deserving league. They collect Quad 1 wins by beating each other and do little in the OOC.
 
Yeah Wake moved up 4 spots in NET. In the scheme of things, from Unc perspective, a 7 point loss on the road in a toss up game isn’t that bad.

Wake needs to beat down GT, ND, and BC at home. We’re going to be double digit favorites in all three.
 
Anyone here with Big East Tournament experience? Is there money to be made by buying the whole session packs (off gametime) and then reselling when I can't attend? Any tips?
 
daaberry said:
If the committee goes and gives 5 bids to the Mountain West, that will hurt our chances. They got 4 bids last year and quickly went 0-4.
Hard to convince me they are a deserving league. They collect Quad 1 wins by beating each other and do little in the OOC.
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and then people are gonna marvel when the ACC does well again in the tourney
 
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