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Official CFP Rankings Thread - #16 Deacs (#15 Pitt, #18 State, #20 Clemson)

I don't see a way that Ohio State slips below us in the CFP rankings this week with a loss to #7 MSU or next week with a loss to #6 Michigan. Seems like they'll not drop enough for us to jump them. So in my mind, them beating MSU will allow us to jump MSU (if we beat Clemp), and then OSU beating UM will allow us to jump UM (if we beat BC).

Then we will be close enough with hopeful Cincy and Oregon losses, to jump OSU during CCG week if they lose to Wiscy and we can pull off the ACCCG.

Thoughts?

Still would leave Alabama, ND, OkSt in the mix potentially in front of us, but hopefully OkSt drops one and ND gets slighted.
 
It’s not about jumping from week to week. It’s about Wake being one of four 0 or 1 loss teams at the end.
 
PhDeac said:
It’s not about jumping from week to week. It’s about Wake being one of four 0 or 1 loss teams at the end.
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Generally agree, but certain brand names become tough to jump especially when playing each other ahead of us.

What I'm saying is if #4 OSU loses to #7 MSU, then MSU replaces them around #5 (Cincy now #4), but OSU probably won't drop below us at #10 or whatever. Meaning there will now be a 2-loss OSU ahead of us that a 1-loss Wake can't get ahead of.

It seems more beneficial for OSU to knock off UM and MSU who will drop below us as a result.
 
The toughest of those brand names to jump will be OSU. So to your point, a 2-loss OSU will be tougher to jump than a 2-loss MSU, so we should root for OSU to go ahead and get that 2nd loss.
 
If OSU loses a second game and doesn't make it to the Big 10 Championship and Wake wins all remaining games, Wake is jumping OSU however you want to envision it. OSU will be sitting at home while Wake is playing an additional game.
 
I think that's probably correct. Also, Michigan State is way more likely to lose to Wisconsin than Ohio State is.

I doubt Sparty will win in Columbus on Saturday, but we should definitely be rooting for that
 
buckets said:
the more losses the better for OSU
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I don't think this is correct if it means less losses for UM and MSU. To me it feels most ideal for:

MSU to lose OSU and drop behind us
UM to lose to OSU and drop behind us
OSU to lose to Wiscy and drop behind us
 
According to the 538 predictor, OSU-MSU doesn’t matter to a 12-1 Wake unless Oregon also loses. The odds are 66-67% regardless who wins. But if Oregon loses, an OSU win shifts our odds from 71% to 69%. But a MSU win takes us to 79%.

That’s with UGA and ND winning out. ND is likely to win out. We need UGA to beat Bama.
 
This rooting matrix is complicated. The big ten logjam means there’s not a firm rooting interest in this weeks games, but next 2 weeks will come into focus soon.

Go Utah and SMU
 
PhDeac said:
According to the 538 predictor, OSU-MSU doesn’t matter to a 12-1 Wake unless Oregon also loses. The odds are 66-67% regardless who wins. But if Oregon loses, an OSU win shifts our odds from 71% to 69%. But a MSU win takes us to 79%.

That’s with UGA and ND winning out. ND is likely to win out. We need UGA to beat Bama.
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my biggest question mark with the 538 odds is how confident they are that 12-1 WFU will rank above 11-1 ND.

i think we *should* pass them (along with OK St and OU) since they have two relative cupcakes to finish out their season while we’d play two tough road games and a championship game, but hard to say. would be good for wisconsin (and obviously cincy) to drop one just to make sure.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
my biggest question mark with the 538 odds is how confident they are that 12-1 WFU will rank above 11-1 ND.

i think we *should* pass them (along with OK St and OU) since they have two relative cupcakes to finish out their season while we’d play two tough road games and a championship game, but hard to say. would be good for wisconsin (and obviously cincy) to drop one just to make sure.
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not a great look that ND will go undefeated against the ACC, albeit not against the best teams - for that reason we need Pitt to beat UVA so that ND can't say they beat the Coastal champ (who we would then have to beat twice)

also if Pitt can roll into Charlotte on a win streak, a WF win there will look pretty solid
 
ND is the only 1 loss team I feel good that we could pass. I don’t think we would stay above 1-loss OU.
 
I think a victory over Clemson will resonate with the committee. Ending a 33 home game winning streak, the longest in the nation, makes a statement. Add clinching an Atlantic division championship (#4 in the nation per Sagarin) and that victory on the road is a major accomplishment.

Better reference. Ask Georgia or any other CFP top ten team how they would feel about that task to make the playoffs. I doubt you would get any volunteers.
 
I hope so. I feel like the college football world wrote off Clemson awhile ago. Another close win may just get a ho hum response.
 
They have. It serves their purpose. It is the missing piece to denigrate the ACC. That's more difficult to do when the ACC champion is kicking ass when counts in the CFP. That's been the ACC's trump card for respectability the past six years. Might as well kick Clemson while their down and keep them down and out as long as possible.

But nobody volunteers for the task facing the Deacons this Saturday.
 
BlackjackMc said:
They have. It serves their purpose. It is the missing piece to denigrate the ACC. That's more difficult to do when the ACC champion is kicking ass when counts in the CFP. That's been the ACC's trump card for respectability the past six years. Might as well kick Clemson while their down and keep them down and out as long as possible.

But nobody volunteers for the task facing the Deacons this Saturday.
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It will also help if Clemson follows up taking the L with skull fucking an SEC team the next week.
 
I think the big needs are a Cincinnati loss, Wisconsin wins the Big 10, Oregon loses one of these games to Utah, and another Alabama loss, preferably to Auburn unless Georgia destroys them. 3 of those with WFU winning out in impressive fashion would be a close call for Wake sneaking in. All 4 of those and WFU wins next 3 impressively, and I think Wake is in.

Cincy loss takes them out and hurts ND. Bama second loss likely kicks them out. Wisconsin winning takes out the entire Big 10 because whomever is playing Wisconsin in the Championship Game will have taken out the other Big 10 teams ahead of us. Utah beating Oregon obviously ends that charade. ND could argue that Wisconsin surging helps them, but everyone already knows ND beat Wisconsin before they had their shit together.

The world is down on OU and down on Clemson for the same reasons - they are not anywhere near as good as prior/recent versions of OU and Clemson, and the pollsters are punishing them for that. For that reason I am not sure OU jumps us even if they win out. It is too bad that Clemson is not ranked this week. By any real metric, they deserve to be ranked ahead of 6-4 Miss State.

Obviously other scenarios that have Wake getting in, but those 4 above are the big ones to pull for.
 
ABCDeac said:
I think the big needs are a Cincinnati loss, Wisconsin wins the Big 10, Oregon loses one of these games to Utah, and another Alabama loss, preferably to Auburn unless Georgia destroys them. 3 of those with WFU winning out in impressive fashion would be a close call for Wake sneaking in. All 4 of those and WFU wins next 3 impressively, and I think Wake is in.

Cincy loss takes them out and hurts ND. Bama second loss likely kicks them out. Wisconsin winning takes out the entire Big 10 because whomever is playing Wisconsin in the Championship Game will have taken out the other Big 10 teams ahead of us. Utah beating Oregon obviously ends that charade. ND could argue that Wisconsin surging helps them, but everyone already knows ND beat Wisconsin before they had their shit together.

The world is down on OU and down on Clemson for the same reasons - they are not anywhere near as good as prior/recent versions of OU and Clemson, and the pollsters are punishing them for that. For that reason I am not sure OU jumps us even if they win out. It is too bad that Clemson is not ranked this week. By any real metric, they deserve to be ranked ahead of 6-4 Miss State.

Obviously other scenarios that have Wake getting in, but those 4 above are the big ones to pull for.
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You've left out Oklahoma State.
 
Yeah, it would be Georgia, OK State and _______ and _________ in that scenario if OK State wins out. Probably Notre Dame sneaks in to one of those.

If OK State could lose to Texas Tech tomorrow and beat OU, that would be fantastic.

I think Wisconsin winning B10 Championship is the critical one.
 
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