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Official: Wake vs. Nostradamus Thread

wsc8521s said:
Isn't part of the definition of "being on the bubble" having a "realistic shot of getting in"?
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To me it means you're in the conversation in the final 48 hours of the NCAAT selection committee. Wake would be now and will be if we end up with 20 wins. I don't think we will get to 20 wins, but if we do, we're definitely on the bubble.
 
Tell me about the KenPom luck rating.
I never ever thought Wake would be a Top 20 luck team. We're the team luck forgot.
 
VaDeac said:
Tell me about the KenPom luck rating.
I never ever thought Wake would be a Top 20 luck team. We're the team luck forgot.
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Wake has won just about every close game we have been in.
 
VaDeac said:
Tell me about the KenPom luck rating.
I never ever thought Wake would be a Top 20 luck team. We're the team luck forgot.
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Luck is really a bad name for it. It's just that you've outperformed what was expected.

"Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest."

So Wake has done better record-wise than the numbers indicate. It typically happens if you win a lot of close games.

ETA: You would expect almost every team to go .500 in games under five points, so to speak. Since it's a relatively small sample size over the course of a season, if a team goes 7-2 in games five points or closer, that team will likely be higher in RPI and in people's point of view than KenPom indicates since the rankings are generally supposed to be if simulations went on for infinity times.
 
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Wakeforest22890 said:
To me it means you're in the conversation in the final 48 hours of the NCAAT selection committee. Wake would be now and will be if we end up with 20 wins. I don't think we will get to 20 wins, but if we do, we're definitely on the bubble.
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I don't really understand why it's even worth discussing until there is actually a scenario whereby you might get in (i.e. winning some top 50 RPI and road games). Maybe they'll mention our name in passing and quickly dismiss us in the committee room, woohoo!!!
 
They'll mention Wake whenever they want Wellman to leave the room.
 
VaDeac said:
Tell me about the KenPom luck rating.
I never ever thought Wake would be a Top 20 luck team. We're the team luck forgot.
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If CMM takes a shot with 0:01 left with Wake down one, Kenpom doesn't care if that shot goes in (at least any more than any other possession). So naturally, some teams will record more/less wins over the course of the season than they deserve statistically.

Wake's Kenpom will be higher if we lose our next 3 games by 5 points each rather than if we lose by 20, then win by 1 and win by 1. That is why using Kenpom ranks to judge the candidacy of NCAA tournament teams is flawed. The NCAA tournament rewards bids on team wins/losses.

According to Kenpom, the 41st best team in the country would have a 14-6 record against our schedule this year with neutral luck. We are 75th best team in the country, per Kenpom, with a 14-6 record against our schedule. That is very lucky.
 
wsc8521s said:
I don't really understand why it's even worth discussing until there is actually a scenario whereby you might get in (i.e. winning some top 50 RPI and road games). Maybe they'll mention our name in passing and quickly dismiss us in the committee room, woohoo!!!
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If Wake wins 20 games and doesn't have any really good wins or really bad losses, along with a close game in the quarters against Pitt/UVA/Syracuse after winning the first round game, Wake will be one of the last teams out. Typically the committee judges good wins and bad losses equivalent so we wash out there.
 
FckVwls said:
If CMM takes a shot with 0:01 left with Wake down one, Kenpom doesn't care if that shot goes in (at least any more than any other possession). So naturally, some teams will record more/less wins over the course of the season than they deserve statistically.

Wake's Kenpom will be higher if we lose our next 3 games by 5 points each rather than if we lose by 20, then win by 1 and win by 1. That is why using Kenpom ranks to judge the candidacy of NCAA tournament teams is flawed. The NCAA tournament rewards bids on team wins/losses.

According to Kenpom, the 41st best team in the country would have a 14-6 record against our schedule this year with neutral luck. We are 75th best team in the country, per Kenpom, with a 14-6 record against our schedule. That is very lucky.
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Yep. We are 14-6, but won the State game at the Buzzer and tied the Richmond game at the buzzer which we won. We could easily be 12-8, but we aren't.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Typically the committee judges good wins and bad losses equivalent so we wash out there.
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Completely disagree. Maybe if you have a ton of road wins or a strong non-conference SOS you can get in with no marquee wins, like a Middle Tennessee last year. We have neither
 
MTSU is a GREAT comparison statistically to Wake. They won one game against a top 50 team (Ole Miss) and lost two bad games (FIU and Arkansas State). They got in. Their RPI was 32 or 33 though, which is the difference.

I don't see how MTSU makes a point for you since we're going to end up with a drastically better overall SOS than MTSU. MTSU was objectively better than Wake is overall though. What will end up hurting us though is, as you point out and I've pointed out throughout the year, is the subjective value that the committee places on challenging your team in the OOC. It doesn't really make your team any better or any worse, it's just a metric that the committee has used recently.
 
The three things that stand out for the committee: marquee wins, non-conference SOS (what you can control as opposed to your conference slate), road wins. MTSU had 2 of 3 going in their favor. We've got a goose-egg
 
Right now, only 5 of the 20 teams between 30-50 have more than one RPI top 50 win. We have one right now in Richmond.

We are also 5-2 against 51-100 which is a very solid record.

If the season ended today, we would be squarely on the bubble.
 
A "questionable" team whose AD chairs the committee is not getting in. The committee has taken too much crap in the early years over committee member teams getting in. I think it hurts more than it helps. We will not be in the conversation this year. Next year could be a different matter.
 
ACCOffice said:
A "questionable" team whose AD chairs the committee is not getting in. The committee has taken too much crap in the early years over committee member teams getting in. I think it hurts more than it helps. We will not be in the conversation this year. Next year could be a different matter.
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Really? It seems like those teams invariably get in and everybody complains about it and it is forgotten two weeks later.
 
ACCOffice said:
A "questionable" team whose AD chairs the committee is not getting in. The committee has taken too much crap in the early years over committee member teams getting in. I think it hurts more than it helps. We will not be in the conversation this year. Next year could be a different matter.
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Really? It sure seemed to help us a few years ago when Greenberg and company were bitching about Wake getting in with Wellman on the committee. Or maybe it was Hatch, or something. I don't remember but people blasted Wake's selection a few years back.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Really? It sure seemed to help us a few years ago when Greenberg and company were bitching about Wake getting in with Wellman on the committee. Or maybe it was Hatch, or something. I don't remember but people blasted Wake's selection a few years back.
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Which was ridiculous because we weren't even really on the bubble. We had wins at Gonzaga and home vs Xavier and Richmond. That was a strong OOC resume.
 
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