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Online Virtual Coach Simulation

PhDeac said:
That's great stuff. I used to take mine to meetings when I was on leave when he was 3-7 months old. I miss those days of just being able to put him into a carrier and lug him around instead of hoping he feels like holding Daddy's hand on a particular day.

I've been tinkering with my system and did a quick analysis of my system compared to the SimBA Draft picks for the Season 61 class. Among those that got drafted the correlation between pick and highest rating is .400 which is pretty good. Here is the breakdown by position:

PG - 13 of Top 20 were 1st or 2nd rounders
SG - 11 of Top 20 were 1st or 2nd rounders
SF - 14 of Top 20 were SimBA draft picks
PF - 15 of Top 20 were SimBA draft picks
C - 11 of Top 20 were SimBA draft picks
Click to expand...


Interesting.

Because I don't separate out positions, I just did a quick comparison of my top 32 players to see how many were in the SimBA.

13 were 1st round picks (40%)
5 were 2nd round picks (15%)
2 were 3rd round picks (6%)
1 was a 4th round pick (3%)
So 64% of my top 32 were drafted.

Interesting to note that looking at the 1st round class of 61:

Only 1 Kurtis Futrell was less than 7 (6.58) on my scale.
8 were less than 10 while 24 were 10+ rated (75%).

Karim Haas my #1 rated player for this class at 6'11 is actually my highest rated player in my system ever but Charlotte Weasels only allowed him to play bPG for 2 seasons, bSF and SG (as a senior).

Would have been interesting to see what Karim had done on a team that utilized him as he had games of 16-18 multiple times as a bPG and when he started at SG he averaged 16 points a game with a career high 27.
 
Since SimBA considers stats, some of my studs have gone later in the draft than they should bc they're on a good team that shares the ball. So "opportunity" has a lot to do with it - whether on a good team, or suspect coaching (Karim Haas). So your value systems are probably > SimBA for this reason.
 
SimBA Draft is a way to check it with actual results. Of course, CPU teams are a problem with this because good players may not get a shot and bad teams are a problem because lesser players may get a lot of run. But overall, the best players get the most minutes and get drafted accordingly. I'm curious how the draft system balances stats and ratings. I used to think it was primarily based on stats and team quality with a small influence of ratings. But 6-11 Harvey Evans was a 3rd round pick averaging 20 and 5 at SG/SF/PF with great percentages on solid to good teams. You'd think he'd go higher but he was +3/-1.
 
Knowing how lazy programmers are, I would bet the same formula is used for HS Stars of the Game, college All Conference, and SimBA draft. And I would bet it is solely stat based. I guess we could "tell" by whether the same biases for certain stats are in each use.
 
Paducah gave Frankfort a real scare, taking the defending champs to OT before losing 120-123. Great game by both teams statistically. Frankfort with 28 team assists, 7/11 3pters, and both teams shot FT's often and well (FU 22/26, PU 24/28). Ironically, it was a missed FT by Isaiah Stockdale (79%), which allowed PU to tie it at the buzzer. Then in OT, Frankfort's worst FT shooter, Henry Doyle (6/14 for year), made two to ice it in OT.
 
Akron is suffering from several seasons of recruiting misses, but is certainly finding drama in our conference (17).

Here are the top four in the standings:
Akron 6-2 (9-4) PR 57
Minneapolis 6-2 (9-4) PR 59
Owensboro 6-2 (9-4) PR 66
Branson 5-3 (10-3) PR 58

I play two teams PR 180+ in the last two weeks. None of the top 4 play each other anymore. It'll come down to the second tie-breaker (PR) for reg season champs. And since all of us can't win the Conf Tourney, at least one team is going to miss the NTT because of a PR tie-breaker.
 
NTT Update

The Season 66 NTT picture is starting to take shape with 8 teams punching their tickets on Monday and several bubble teams moving 'In' or 'Out' of their playoff hopes. Unfortunately more out than in for fellow Deacons. 2 Deacon coaches are currently in line for NTT 1 seeds with a 3rd in line for a 2 seed.

Tickets Punched (8)
Syracuse Lions #14 (12-1) (non-deac) - C5 RS Champion
Ft. Lauderdale Archers #39 (12-1) (non-deac) - C9 RS Champion
Charlotte Weasels #24 (13-0) (non-deac) - C11 RS Champion
Boca Raton Storm #3 (13-0) - 3rd straight C13 RS title and 4th in 5 years.
Frankfort Deacon Blues #1 (12-1) - C18 RS Title (50 straight?)
Garland Coyotes #20 (12-1) (non-deac) - C23 RS Title
Long Beach Landsharks #6 (13-0) (non-deac) - C31 RS Title
Flagstaff whippersnappers #7 (12-1) - C32 RS Title

56 spots remain.


First Teams In (4)
Nashville Domination #29 (12-1) / Dearborn Warak's Deacs #25 (11-2) - It's possible that Nashville and Dearborn both get in by virtue of one winning the conference 15 and the other the conference tournament. Both have enough PR to make the field at large. RS Title is a race!
Duluth Bullish Deacs #37 (10-3) - Duluth is currently tied with Kalamazoo and Little Rock for the conference 20 regular season title (7-1 each). Duluth has a lot of options to make it to the NTT with conference regular season, conference tournament and at large scenarios all still in play.
Cincinnati Skyline Deacs #42 (11-2) - The Skyline Deacs have a great shot of making the NTT field in coach dadeacs first season at the helm. Cincinnati is looking for an at large bid unless they can beat out Milwaukee for the conference 16 Title or the Scythians fumble down the home stretch.


First Teams Out (6)
Rochester Sandworms #114 (7-6) - Rochester is in 3rd in Conference 6 and would need to win their conference tournament to advance to the NTT.
Akron Rowdies #57 (9-4) - Akron is making things interesting as they are now in a 3 way tie for 1st in Conference 17 with Minneapolis and Owensboro. (all at 6-2) With the possiblity of winning the RS title, and an improved PR the Rowdies are not ready to eliminate any roads to the NTT.
Carbondale Violence #128 (5-8) - Carbondale will need to pull a major upset during their conference tournament to make the NTT.
Flint Firestarters #220 (1-12) - Flint will need to win the conference 18 tournament to get into the NTT. 1st year coach dieseldeac's squad needs time to mature and rebuild.
Youngstown Squires #63 (10-3) - Youngstown's loss tonight puts them into needing to win the conference 16 tournament to assure themselves an NTT ticket.
Odessa Spooks #67 (9-4) - Odessa's 4 pt loss to Casper eliminates their chances of a C25 RS Title. They still have a shot of getting into the NTT through a strong showing in their conference tournament but at large seems unlikely now.


On the Bubble (1)
Chicago Golden Deacons #48 (10-3) - Chicago's going to have some work to do to make it into the NTT. A win against Little Rock on friday would do wonder's for solidifying their at large chances but the Golden Deacons just might need to win the Conference 20 tourney to make sure their ticket is punched.
 
Very mad about the game tonight, my team played real good just couldn't pull it out in the end. They came back from a deficit and I'm proud of that. Wish we could have won, I guess I will either have to blow up during tourney, or I might do that play in tourney for the NTT, if I can figure out how to register for it
 
PilotDeac said:
Very mad about the game tonight, my team played real good just couldn't pull it out in the end. They came back from a deficit and I'm proud of that. Wish we could have won, I guess I will either have to blow up during tourney, or I might do that play in tourney for the NTT, if I can figure out how to register for it
Click to expand...

Honestly, I think you might want to just go into the PTT. This way you get more wins than losses in the post season which should help your recruiting over the next few cycles.
 
PilotDeac said:
Very mad about the game tonight, my team played real good just couldn't pull it out in the end. They came back from a deficit and I'm proud of that. Wish we could have won, I guess I will either have to blow up during tourney, or I might do that play in tourney for the NTT, if I can figure out how to register for it
Click to expand...

With the talent on your squad I really wouldn't be surprised to see you get hot and win the conference tourney. IMO you still have a good shot at an at large bid, you will just have to more than likely get to the conference tourney finals. A win against Fort Worth would be huge for you. Still don't get why Ruis isnt playing as well as I would have expected this season, guess he just needs to mature a little bit.
 
Thanks for the advice storm, I think I will do that then, thats a good point. (idk how to sign up for the other anyways:p)

Yea, idk either tau. Ft Worth will be a tough challenge. I wont feel near as bad if I get a defensive stud like Wick is in the upcoming class. With that, and some bench depth I should have no drop-off, and a year older players. Lets hope I can get that
 
tau06 said:
With the talent on your squad I really wouldn't be surprised to see you get hot and win the conference tourney. IMO you still have a good shot at an at large bid, you will just have to more than likely get to the conference tourney finals. A win against Fort Worth would be huge for you. Still don't get why Ruis isnt playing as well as I would have expected this season, guess he just needs to mature a little bit.
Click to expand...

I agree with Tau, you've still got a great shot at an at large bid. It's just going to take getting wins in most of the rest of your games. Certainly don't take my NTT projections as Gospel. I'm just trying to keep everyone aware of what our fellow deacs are doing.
 
This is the 3rd game in a row where I have faltered coming down the stretch. Was up big at halftime - 21 points - in an easy game, only to have my lead dwindle in the second hald and win by 11. Against Cambridge I was down 9 with 3 minutes to go, only to lose by 17. Against Youngstown was up 7 at the break and needed at 3 pointer at the buzzer to send the game to overtime. And in my scrimmage against Warak, I was down 6 with 2 minutes to go only to lose by 11.

Anybody got any advice on how to close better? Should I change my tempo from slow down to Normal? Or change 3 point shooting from shoot less to normal (shooting 32% as a team)?

Thanks guys.
 
DaDeacs said:
This is the 3rd game in a row where I have faltered coming down the stretch. Was up big at halftime - 21 points - in an easy game, only to have my lead dwindle in the second hald and win by 11. Against Cambridge I was down 9 with 3 minutes to go, only to lose by 17. Against Youngstown was up 7 at the break and needed at 3 pointer at the buzzer to send the game to overtime. And in my scrimmage against Warak, I was down 6 with 2 minutes to go only to lose by 11.

Anybody got any advice on how to close better? Should I change my tempo from slow down to Normal? Or change 3 point shooting from shoot less to normal (shooting 32% as a team)?

Thanks guys.
Click to expand...

Practice Stamina, and use More/More sub pattern.
 
Always practice Stamina. awaken gave me that advice years ago and it pays off.

Keep track of minutes. Some players can handle more minutes than other players. For example, my SF Adam Cox is averaging 32.5 min/game, even more in the games in which he's at Less/More. On the other hand, other players can't go more than 32 no matter how you set them. If your starters have trouble pushing 32 minutes, try or at least Norm/Norm to keep them fresh. If the backup is just that bad, move your lineup around to put the best backup behind the starter who has trouble logging minutes.
 
Ph's post reminds me that one of the things I look for in HS scrimmages is how many minutes a starter plays. I prefer > 30 min/game.

When you realize how much this game penalizes fatigue, you gotta practice stamina.
 
Yep. I keep track of that in scrimmages as well. It's just good to know what you're dealing with. My best player in Duluth history couldn't play more than 28 min/game, so I made sure he had a solid backup and I kept his settings high to max his output.

awaken, could you e-mail me your list of HS Info? I'm missing some of the more recent classes and I'm working on an idea to identify "special classes" whose teams win more games than they should given their ratings. It's similar to the work you've done.
 
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Boca got a huge 103-67 win against FT. Myers. Gonzalez lead all scorers with 23 while Hutchings added 20. 5 players were in double figures scoring wise as the leagues #1 ball control team forced 12 turnovers (7 steals) while only committing 1 turnover.

Boca is 1 game from the first undefeated regular season in team history.
 
The field narrows as 4 more teams punch tickets! 20 conferences have still yet to determine their Regular Season champion. A few more stumbles for our fellow deacon coaches while Akron's hanging on for dear life in Conference 17.


Tickets Punched (12)
Richmond Bankers (non-deac) - C2 RS Champion
Syracuse Lions (non-deac) - C5 RS Champion
Ft. Lauderdale Archers (non-deac) - C9 RS Champion
Charlotte Weasels (non-deac) - C11 RS Champion
Boca Raton Storm #5 (13-0) - C13 RS Champion
Milwaukee Scythians (non-deac) - C16 RS Champion
Frankfort Deacon Blues #1 (13-1) - C18 RS Champion
Denver Gargoyles (non-deac) - C21 RS Champion
Garland Coyotes (non-deac) - C23 RS Champion
Bakersfield Full Court Pres (non-deac) - C27 RS Champion
Long Beach Landsharks (non-deac) - C31 RS Champion
Flagstaff whippersnappers #9 (13-1) - C32 RS Champion

52 spots remain.


First Teams In (3)
Nashville Domination #25 (13-1) / Dearborn Warak's Deacs #21 (12-2) - It's possible that Nashville and Dearborn both get in by virtue of one winning the conference 15 and the other the conference tournament. Both have enough PR to make the field at large. RS Title is a race!
Duluth Bullish Deacs #30 (11-3) - Duluth is currently tied with Little Rock after an 11 point victory over Kalamazoo. Duluth has a lot of options to make it to the NTT with conference regular season, conference tournament and at large scenarios all still in play.



First Teams Out (7)
Cincinnati Skyline Deacs #59 (11-3) - A tough loss for the Skyline Deacs tonight may have just cost them a chance at the dance. The loss to 5-9 Sioux City had a huge impact on their ranking. Conference tournament is still in play while at large is doubtful.
Rochester Sandworms #105 (8-6) - Rochester is in 3rd in Conference 6 and would need to win their conference tournament to advance to the NTT.
Akron Rowdies #57 (10-4) - Akron is making things interesting as they are still in a 3 way tie for 1st in Conference 17 with Minneapolis and Owensboro. One of these three teams will likely miss out of the NTT and perhaps two if the regular season champ wins the conference tourney.
Carbondale Violence #130 (5-9) - Carbondale will need to pull a major upset during their conference tournament to make the NTT.
Flint Firestarters #220 (1-13) - Flint will need to win the conference 18 tournament to get into the NTT. 1st year coach dieseldeac's squad needs time to mature and rebuild.
Youngstown Squires #62 (11-3) - Youngstown's needs to win the conference 16 tournament to assure themselves an NTT ticket.
Odessa Spooks #76 (9-5) - A tough stretch for Odessa losing 3 straight since facing off with Boca. They still have a shot of getting into the NTT through a strong showing in their conference tournament but at large seems unlikely now.


On the Bubble (1)
Chicago Golden Deacons #42 (11-3) - Chicago's going to have some work to do to make it into the NTT. A win against Little Rock on friday would do wonder's for solidifying their at large chances but the Golden Deacons just might need to win the Conference 20 tourney to make sure their ticket is punched.
 
Frankfort rolled by Carbondale 106-74. Brett Sagers was in attendance, and was looking kind of pale.
 
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