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Presbyterian Should Get...

It still blows my mind that this team beat us 3 years ago...and it wasn't even the worst loss of that season!!!
 
[Redacted] tries and he tries and he tries, but they just don't get it!
 
The line up of great competition at Joel continues. Just one after another.
 
The five teams we play before Kansas are projected to win a total of 56 games (by the great KP of course).
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
The five teams we play before Kansas are projected to win a total of 56 games (by the great KP of course).
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That's an average of just over 11 per team...the same number of wins [Redacted] has averaged in his three seasons at Wake.
 
Wow, Presby ranked #343 on KenPom. We are playing the 9th worst team in the country. Why is an ACC team playing the 9th worst team in the country? This schedule is an absolute joke. No one should show up.
 
woody9186 said:
Wow, Presby ranked #343 on KenPom. We are playing the 9th worst team in the country. Why is an ACC team playing the 9th worst team in the country? This schedule is an absolute joke. No one should show up.
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GA Tech played them as well.

Last year they started off with Clemson, GaTech, Creighton (ranked 15th), Wisconsin, and Tennessee. The year before that Duke and Cinci, both ranked. 2010 they beat us and played #3 KState and #15 Missouri.

Really don't get the outrage. ESPN has like 5 ACC teams as having weaker schedules than us.
 
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Presbyterian is the effin' Blue Hose?!? Really, that is their mascot?!? That's the worst mascot in the country. I'd rather be a Banana Slug, Anteater or whatever my other alma mater, William & Mary, changed their mascot to. (Speaking of mascots, now that Syracuse can't be the Orangemen, are they making John Boehner their official mascot?) I don't even know where Presbyterian is.
 
DCDeac said:
GA Tech played them as well.

Last year they started off with Clemson, GaTech, Creighton (ranked 15th), Wisconsin, and Tennessee. The year before that Duke and Cinci, both ranked. 2010 they beat us and played #3 KState and #15 Missouri.

Really don't get the outrage. ESPN has like 5 ACC teams as having weaker schedules than us.
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I posted a breakdown on one of the VMI threads. Clemson likely has the easiest schedule with 8 teams worse than 100th and no top 50 teams on the schedule but wake is definitely close to the easiest along with four or five other schools. About half the conference plays an embarrassingly easy schedule. Wake has something like 7 games against teams worse than 100th and two games against teams better than 50 (with a chance to play another top 50 team if we somehow beat Kansas). We also have the most games against teams 250 and worse though of any team in the conference so that probably puts us near the "top" of the teams were grouped at as far as easiest. IMO it's Clemson, Pitt, then wake as far as easiest OOC schedule. It's not really a major issue but if wins are going to be cited as the barometer for wellman and [Redacted] it's important to contextualize said win count.
 
DCDeac said:
GA Tech played them as well.

Last year they started off with Clemson, GaTech, Creighton (ranked 15th), Wisconsin, and Tennessee. The year before that Duke and Cinci, both ranked. 2010 they beat us and played #3 KState and #15 Missouri.

Really don't get the outrage. ESPN has like 5 ACC teams as having weaker schedules than us.
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Agreed. VT, Pitt, NC State, GT, and Clemson are all rated as having similar or easier non-conference schedules than Wake. If you would like to read further, here's the link http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebask...d/88014/nonconference-schedule-analysis-acc-3

Does Wake have a tough non-conference schedule? No. Is it the easiest in the ACC this year? Not even close (look at Pitt's and Clemson's schedules). I just don't understand all the drama regarding the schedule.
 
Rafi said:
Agreed. VT, Pitt, NC State, GT, and Clemson are all rated as having similar or easier non-conference schedules than Wake. If you would like to read further, here's the link http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebask...d/88014/nonconference-schedule-analysis-acc-3

Does Wake have a tough non-conference schedule? No. Is it the easiest in the ACC this year? Not even close (look at Pitt's and Clemson's schedules). I just don't understand all the drama regarding the schedule.
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Again it's pretty close to Clemson and Pitt but we do at least have two top 50 teams, well guaranteed one since Xavier is at 48 and may slide out of the top 50.
 
I'm perfectly fine with scheduling these cupcakes in a year where we're not going to make the NCAA Tournament. It won't penalize us with the committee and it'll artificially inflate our wins in the minds of recruits, which is a very good thing. All I hope is that Wellman only judges [Redacted]/the coaching staff on the ACC season and select non-conference games against quality opponents. The problem is, I fear Wellman will view this year as "progress" and talk about a "massive" spike in wins even though the difficulty of achieving those wins was much lower.
 
We're playing Kansas, Xavier, Richmond, and probably UTEP out of conference - all of whom are ranked above us in KenPom. I'm not saying we're playing a tough schedule, but it doesn't deserve the ire it's being given unless you throw out the entire Bahamas tournament which makes no sense.

GaTech plays Louisville and that's it - their schedule is definitely weaker than ours and Kenpom agrees, plus they only have to play Carolina once. Everyone schedules cupcakes, and you can argue whether you'd like to see two teams like Vandy and Purdue who we'd probably split with versus Kansas and Colgate, who we'll definitely split with.

Bottom line is it's a weak schedule, it's not some kind of affront to our schedules historically, and our conference play will determine the quality of this team just like it always has.
 
Well first of all KenPom's SOS right now is just based on who you have actually played, not based on who you are going to play. Second of all everyone is grouping together cupcakes on here (and I did too for 100+) but that really isn't fair since teams that are worse than 200 on KenPom are almost always a win. Once teams get into the top 200 it starts getting murky. For instance people would likely group Stony Brook and Colgate together in their minds, but Colgate is 293 while Stony Brook is 76. Sites like ESPN are just going to be evaluating who you're playing based on the name of the opponent rather than by any objective criteria. Finally we're just talking about OOC scheduling, we're not talking about who you get matched up with in conference play since you have no control over conference scheduling.

This is the first schedule Wake has played in the past 10 years that has 6 teams worse than 250 on it, the next closest has been 4. Furthermore we play 7 games against teams ranked worse than 200 - which is just seven wins right away, while the two teams in direct comparison with us as "easiest schedule" in Pitt and Clemson play 3 and 6 respectively. Pittsburgh schedule has a lot of teams between 100-200 which are not guaranteed wins, but are viewed by ESPN as cupcakes and easy wins. Is a team like Pitt, who is top 20 in KenPom, likely to beat all these teams between 100 and 200? Yes, but the argument isn't that a top 20 team is supposed to beat them, it's to compare the schedules objectively to see who has a tougher or easier schedule. Wake would not be anywhere close to the 90% guaranteed win against a team ranked 150th that Pitt is. For comparison purposes Pitt is an 91% favorite to beat 113th ranked Penn State at home while Wake is only a 69% favorite to beat 105th St. Bonnie at home. These games are equivalent, Wake is just more likely to lose it but I digress.

Going back to 2003 and looking at the schedule of all 15 teams currently in the ACC, there have only been 32 losses to teams ranked worse than 200th. That's just a little bit more than 2 losses per team TOTAL over an 11 year period (plus a couple of games this year) or around .15 losses per year per team (in other words very, very rare). I can do the math for teams ranked in any other bracket people so choose under 200 or over 200, but from my quick look it appears that there have only been 2 losses to a team ranked worse than 300th over that time period and it was Miami to Binghamton a few years ago as well as when Wake got Stetson'd in [Redacted]'s opener. So Wake playing six games against teams worse than 270 is a lot different than Pitt playing 2 against teams worse than 270 and then only 3 against teams worse than 190.

TLDR: Sites like ESPN group all "cupcakes" together when in reality they are grouping together teams based on name not any statistical objectivity. Not all cupcakes are the same.
 
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Rafi said:
Agreed. VT, Pitt, NC State, GT, and Clemson are all rated as having similar or easier non-conference schedules than Wake. If you would like to read further, here's the link http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebask...d/88014/nonconference-schedule-analysis-acc-3

Does Wake have a tough non-conference schedule? No. Is it the easiest in the ACC this year? Not even close (look at Pitt's and Clemson's schedules). I just don't understand all the drama regarding the schedule.
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Some of us prefer days of "old" when we scheduled difficult opponents both at home on the road. And we often won those games. Now? Boring.
 
Also as a side note Georgia Tech has a really weird schedule, five non-conference games against top 100 schools, six against teams worse than 250 and a game against Charlotte who is right around 150. Georgia Tech's schedule is almost certainly harder than ours.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Also as a side note Georgia Tech has a really weird schedule, five non-conference games against top 100 schools, six against teams worse than 250 and a game against Charlotte who is right around 150. Georgia Tech's schedule is almost certainly harder than ours.
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Not buying it. First, most of the pros seem to disagree. Kansas and @Xavier are tough non conference games. They have @Illinois and Ole Miss at a neutral site. Clearly harder for Wake. UTEP and Richmond are ranked above Dayton or Georgia. The rest is garbage except maybe Vandy. I guess you can start arguing that our garbage is worse than their garbage, but our schedule is still a bit tougher overall in my opinion. At the very least GATech is not "certainly harder" than ours.
 
"I guess you can start arguing that our garbage is worse than their garbage."

This was the entire point of my lengthy post: all cupcakes are not the same. Although admittedly in this case the cupcakes are roughly the same...both teams have around six games against teams worse than 250 which are almost guaranteed wins. Georgia Tech plays 6 top 100 teams and we play 2. Their schedule is blatantly harder. I would wager a decent amount that Georgia Tech's non-con SOS ends up better than Wake's by a good number of spots at the end of the year.
 
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If Wake somehow ends up playing Villanova, our schedule would then become comparable or even slightly harder IMO....or if a couple of teams on our schedule vastly outperform current expectations.
 
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