Romney Picks Paul Ryan as VP

[jhmd2000]

Go to 538 for comprehensive analysis across all polls. It eliminates cherry picking. Ryan's bump has been the smallest VP bump in the last 25 years. That's a fact, though it doesn't mean everything. It's just a fact.

If anything, that shows how locked in people are going to be. Who is seriously undecided this far into the Obama Presidency? Either you're in or out.

This thing is going to be driven by turnout. Ryan should help with turnout more than Biden (but less than Hillary would).

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

If anything, that shows how locked in people are going to be. Who is seriously undecided this far into the Obama Presidency? Either you're in or out.

This thing is going to be driven by turnout. Ryan should help with turnout more than Biden (but less than Hillary would).

If what you say is true, Romney loses. There are more Dems, and they aren't apathetic to losing the WH. But there are many more swing voters than you think. 10-20% of electorate tune in only around the debates and pick the guy they like best. They don't post on message boards, however.

 

[WFFaithful]

If anything, that shows how locked in people are going to be. Who is seriously undecided this far into the Obama Presidency? Either you're in or out.

This thing is going to be driven by turnout. Ryan should help with turnout more than Biden (but less than Hillary would).

 

[jhmd2000]

If what you say is true, Romney loses. There are more Dems, and they aren't apathetic to losing the WH. But there are many more swing voters than you think. 10-20% of electorate tune in only around the debates and pick the guy they like best. They don't post on message boards, however.

There might be more "Dems", but that doesn't mean more Obama voters. See The South.

It's a center-right country, but when the Dems run a super-celebrity like BO-2008 against a demoralized right wing, their turnout will carry the day. The tables turned 24 months later. Do we get all the way back to 360 or (even tip past 270), is the question that determines November. If gas prices inch higher, unemployment continues to stall and Romney presents a viable alternative to the malaise, he's going to be President.

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

There might be more "Dems", but that doesn't mean more Obama voters. See The South.

It's a center-right country, but when the Dems run a super-celebrity like BO-2008 against a demoralized right wing, their turnout will carry the day. The tables turned 24 months later. Do we get all the way back to 360 or (even tip past 270), is the question that determines November. If gas prices inch higher, unemployment continues to stall and Romney presents a viable alternative to the malaise, he's going to be President.

The Dems won in 2008 because they ran the clear best candidate. It wasn't close. They'll win again this election for the same reason, barring some sort of game-changing national catastrophe that has nothing to do with Romney. The GOP didn't pick a good ticket, and the electoral math is simply too much for Romney to overcome.

 

[jhmd2000]

The Dems won in 2008 because they ran the clear best candidate. It wasn't close. They'll win again this election for the same reason, barring some sort of game-changing national catastrophe that has nothing to do with Romney. The GOP didn't pick a good ticket, and the electoral math is simply too much for Romney to overcome.

Now I'm curious why you could say something like this statement, and still claim to be an independent. John McCain is a war hero with decades (cf. months) of experience in the United States Senate and had forgotten more about public service than Barack Obama had known through that point in his life.

Could you make the case that Obama was more electable? Sure. But "clear best"? No, you can't truthfully say that with THAT much confidence. What the hell had BO done prior to 2008 to put your alleged "distance" between him and John McCain to render it not even "close." Careful with the hyperbole, Arlington.

 

[WFFaithful]

Palin voided McCain's greatness

 

[Go]

All I know is this all mercifully comes to an end in November.

Either we have at least 4 more years of Obama or 4 years of R&R.

 

[WakeandBake]

Obama's electability and his connectability, and his ability to bring in votes for other Dem candidates, made him a better candidate.

You are entitled to argue that he was not the better man or better leader or better legislator or better American, but he was the better candidate as the results show.

 

[Go]

Plus he ran against the unpopular current President...

 

[jhmd2000]

Palin voided McCain's greatness

Palin was a hail mary designed to out-celebrity the celebrity. She was going to be a figurehead and listen very, very, very carefully to what Joe Lieberman was going to say.

 

[RJKarl]

There are a lot of things you can say about Romney and Ryan, but they will never be mistaken for R & R.

The ghosts of Elvis, Lennon, Jimi, Cobain and Janis will be visiting your dreams tonight.

 

[Go]

I was more thinking Rest and Relaxation than Rock and/or Roll bubba.

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

Now I'm curious why you could say something like this statement, and still claim to be an independent. John McCain is a war hero with decades (cf. months) of experience in the United States Senate and had forgotten more about public service than Barack Obama had known through that point in his life.

Could you make the case that Obama was more electable? Sure. But "clear best"? No, you can't truthfully say that with THAT much confidence. What the hell had BO done prior to 2008 to put your alleged "distance" between him and John McCain to render it not even "close." Careful with the hyperbole, Arlington.

McCain was a war hero, and longtime senator with a great record. But he was not cut out to be president. IMO, McCain was a dangerously petty and somewhat irrational man when he ran in 2008. After his "calling off my campaign fiasco" to go to Washington and almost wreck a bailout deal he knew nothing about (and had nothing to add to), picking Sarah Palin without any prep work or regard to suitability for office, and along with his general affect of being somewhat lost, tired, cranky, and past his prime by comparison to Obama, I would not have voted for McCain for president in a millions years. Note: he likely would have been my choice in 2000, had he been in the race. But a different man ran in 2008. All in all, Obama was the clear better choice for CIC, and it wasn't really close. A massive majority agreed with me, and it wasn't because Obama was a "celebrity." It was cut and dried.

No hyperbole here. I think McCain was not the caliber of temperament in 2008 that I wanted anywhere near the WH. And Obama has done nothing in office to make me rethink that determination.

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

Palin was a hail mary designed to out-celebrity the celebrity. She was going to be a figurehead and listen very, very, very carefully to what Joe Lieberman was going to say.

Every report on Palin pretty much agrees that she wasn't going to listen to anything but her own ignorant ambition.

 

[PhDeac]

Wouldn't be surprised if Ryan's ambition took over in a month or so.

 

[FuckmouthedRube]

McCain was a war hero, and longtime senator with a great record. But he was not cut out to be president. IMO, McCain was a dangerously petty and somewhat irrational man when he ran in 2008. After his "calling off my campaign fiasco" to go to Washington and almost wreck a bailout deal he knew nothing about (and had nothing to add to), picking Sarah Palin without any prep work or regard to suitability for office, and along with his general affect of being somewhat lost, tired, cranky, and past his prime by comparison to Obama, I would not have voted for McCain for president in a millions years. Note: he likely would have been my choice in 2000, had he been in the race. But a different man ran in 2008. All in all, Obama was the clear better choice for CIC, and it wasn't really close. A massive majority agreed with me, and it wasn't because Obama was a "celebrity." It was cut and dried.

No hyperbole here. I think McCain was not the caliber of temperament in 2008 that I wanted anywhere near the WH. And Obama has done nothing in office to make me rethink that determination.

All true. Bolded part aside, all you had to do was watch the debate when McCain evoked Joe the Plumber 30+ times. McCain was way too erratic and lost the last two months of the campaign. I get the criticism of Obama's presidency (much of which is deserved), but don't get the revisionist view of the 2008 campaign. McCain did not deserve to win.

 

[jhmd2000]

All true. Bolded part aside, all you had to do was watch the debate when McCain evoked Joe the Plumber 30+ times. McCain was way too erratic and lost the last two months of the campaign. I get the criticism of Obama's presidency (much of which is deserved), but don't get the revisionist view of the 2008 campaign. McCain did not deserve to win.

Can someone tell me what Obama actually DID in his life pre 2008 that made him a better candidate for President of the United States than John McCain (or, for that matter, Hillary Clinton)?

 

[ArlingtonDeac]

Most people find Obama's backstory fairly impressive, and the man himself even more so. You hate him. I get that. But stop acting like the president was a do-nothing prior to winning the office.

 

[Junebug]

Most people find Obama's backstory fairly impressive, and the man himself even more so. You hate him. I get that. But stop acting like the president was a do-nothing prior to winning the office.

By backstory you mean his personal story, right? Aside from speechmaking, his legislative accomplishments were minimal.