State has replaced Wake

[ProbationDeac]

I can think of two: DV7 and Racer. Maybe somebody else, too. Just like there are really only three virulent BuzzInners: Schwabber, mabe, and one of the 80s.

Of all of the Wake fans that I know on this board and in my life, I can really only think of a handful of BuzzInners and LoseWakers, an absurdly marginal - though loud - group of Wake fans.

But that's it. I think in frustration you're resorting to a party line that's based on a straw man argument and reflects very little of what's actually happening in the fan base.

My point was in response to someone who said No Wake fans root for us to lose. There are fans who root for us to lose. Not a lot but some. I certainly don't. I agree with you actually.

 

[TBR]

Yeah as I said I didn't look up the numbers but was just going on feel but all that sounds about right.

Listen, I'm BuzzOut and I still think 90% of the fan base is... the other 10% has just gotten more vocal so the ardent BuzzOuters are feeling threatened. But the concerted effort to discredit everything positive that comes along with this team is ridiculous. Don't worry, we will still lose a game by 20+ to someone like Maryland at home and then everyone can celebrate.

The hand wringing over CJ and Travis production (and acting as if Travis is gone as a foregone conclusion) is silly. They by far have the highest usage on the team, and for good reason. If they weren't getting all the shots there would be something wrong. The freshman are entirely deferential to them on offense, and if you've been watching have been doing really good things elsewhere and offensively in flashes.

I don't know how good we'll be next year, I don't want Bz as the coach, and I'm hoping that as soon as we have a half-decent season Bz and Wellman can feign victory and pass the torch to someone else. But can we really not wait for Bz's inevitable turd game to act all outraged?

The problem is replacing CJ's usage with CJ level efficiency. CJ gets 1.75 PPS. Next closest is Rountree's 1.58, and there's an obvious sample size/extrapolation issue there (he currently only take 4% of our shots). CMM is at 1.05 right now. That will certainly get a lot better, but he's a long way from CJ level efficiency so it isn't as simple as CMM playing more minutes or taking more shots.

Our other true SG on the roster is at 1.18 btw.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

The problem is replacing CJ's usage with CJ level efficiency. CJ gets 1.75 PPS. Next closest is Rountree's 1.58, and there's an obvious sample size/extrapolation issue there (he currently only take 4% of our shots). CMM is at 1.05 right now. That will certainly get a lot better, but he's a long way from CJ level efficiency so it isn't as simple as CMM playing more minutes or taking more shots.

Our other true SG on the roster is at 1.18 btw.

Obviously... but also obvious from that data is that any coach with half a brain will be actually trying to get CJ's usage up even more. He needs to be taking as many shots as possible on this team. Next year is a problem, but we shouldn't be looking for the freshmen to get more aggressive offensively this year.

His usage will probably be shared by a few players next year, but we're a long way off.

 

[Strickland33]

Obviously... but also obvious from that data is that any coach with half a brain will be actually trying to get CJ's usage up even more. He needs to be taking as many shots as possible on this team. Next year is a problem, but we shouldn't be looking for the freshmen to get more aggressive offensively this year.

Jeff [Redacted] has not been doing this, at all. Travis has been the top possessions guy throughout the entirety of the season. Yesterday was an extreme outlier, and CJ was quiet for half of the first half anyway! I don't know why he doesn't, but...

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

CJ can be passive at times... which is why he needs to be prodded to be more aggressive. Anyone who has watched this season has probably lamented as such at multiple points.

 

[PaddyWF]

For me, it's like Wake basketball doesn't exist. You couldn't root for or against the team if you wanted. Never on TV, never mentioned on radio, never mentioned during broadcasts of other games, never talked about in the context of ACC basketball, never on sportscenter, never in major articles (except for espn bloggers talking about how much the fanbase despises the coach, and I only saw that through this board)

Ugh. Can't wait till we are better.

 

[TBR]

Jeff [Redacted] has not been doing this, at all. Travis has been the top possessions guy throughout the entirety of the season. Yesterday was an extreme outlier, and CJ was quiet for half of the first half anyway! I don't know why he doesn't, but...

Shots per minute:
1. Travis McKie (0.319)
2. Tyler Cavanaugh (0.298)
3. Arnaud Moto (0.274)
4. Codi Miller-McIntyre (0.272)
5. CJ Harris (0.271)
6. Chase Fischer (0.260)

(Note: this metric isn't ideal since it doesn't include trips to the free throw line)

 

[Strickland33]

CJ can be passive at times... which is why he needs to be prodded to be more aggressive. Anyone who has watched this season has probably lamented as such at multiple points.

It's important, though, to not conflate passivity and coaching.

1) On one hand, when CJ goes nuts, [Redacted] gets credit for drawing up plays. I'd contend that CJ simply took over, especially when he's pulling up in the lane in transition and taking it to the hole as the clock expires. There were some plays, but it's not as if it's that hard to feature a guy as versatile and good as CJ. That said, it's somewhat harder to feature a dude like Travis, who can't create much (i.e. he's not going to be scoring out of pick-and-rolls, he can't really do much from mid-range, and his handles still need tons of work), yet Travis sees 20% of our possessions (down from 25% earlier in the season).

2) When CJ, far more often, fails to go nuts, it's CJ's fault for being passive. Once again, it's worth noting that Travis gets a ton of possessions and can't really create; so unless you think everything Travis does is out of rhythm, he's being featured in the offense, presumably as a result of plays drawn up for him.

I think CJ will play like he did last night when given the opportunity. Passivity was less of a problem when he played for Dino as a freshman than it was during his first year with [Redacted] and this season. Exhaustion and being the focus of opposing defenses, more than passivity is the culprit for his play down the stretch last year.

The question, then, is two-fold:

Why isn't CJ featured more often?
Why doesn't CJ "get his" more often?

The more damning answer, I believe, is in the former, rather than the latter question. If anything, then CJ is a good teammate to a fault.

As is the case with conversations that get caught between the most pro-Buzz, anti-Buzz ideologues, I think the truth is somewhere in the middle...

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

Strick man you sure do write a lot. I'm not and never will be concerned with who gets credit for what. That is a pointless exercise.

I seent it with my own eyes when CJ wasn't shot hunting early in the year.

I also hate the shots per minute metric. Only adds the potential for noise.

 

[Strickland33]

Strick man you sure do write a lot. I'm not and never will be concerned with who gets credit for what. That is a pointless exercise.

I seent it with my own eyes when CJ wasn't shot hunting early in the year.

I agree with the bold, but my problem with "passivity" is that, in my interpretation, it implies that it's on the player as the reason why he's not scoring. Juxtapose "passivity" against "being featured" and what you get is an unending loop. That's the point I was trying to make. Taking one side or the other (coaching or passivity) just proves how intertwined those two concepts are.

The question that people should be asking is: why isn't CJ shot hunting every game? He certainly was last season and he certainly did yesterday. So, what gives?

That's where coaching comes in, an important element that we can't have an honest conversation about because the conversation has been hijacked by ideologues.

 

[Fuck Your Couch]

As others have noted he has been much better since our "good streak". That is a good development IMO. I don't know what was wrong, but I hope to God it wasn't [Redacted] telling CJ not to shot hunt (seems unlikely IMO). I don't really see featured plays in the offense much, and when there is it is usually CJ at the top for a high PnR or an iso.

 

[Doggus]

Yeah as I said I didn't look up the numbers but was just going on feel but all that sounds about right.

Listen, I'm BuzzOut and I still think 90% of the fan base is... the other 10% has just gotten more vocal so the ardent BuzzOuters are feeling threatened. But the concerted effort to discredit everything positive that comes along with this team is ridiculous. Don't worry, we will still lose a game by 20+ to someone like Maryland at home and then everyone can celebrate.

The hand wringing over CJ and Travis production (and acting as if Travis is gone as a foregone conclusion) is silly. They by far have the highest usage on the team, and for good reason. If they weren't getting all the shots there would be something wrong. The freshman are entirely deferential to them on offense, and if you've been watching have been doing really good things elsewhere and offensively in flashes.

I don't know how good we'll be next year, I don't want Bz as the coach, and I'm hoping that as soon as we have a half-decent season Bz and Wellman can feign victory and pass the torch to someone else. But can we really not wait for Bz's inevitable turd game to act all outraged?

I think this is an awesome post.


Travis was honorable mention all-ACC team last year. This year he is at his career averages with the exception of a decrease in FG and 3 pt % and a nice increase in steals. I don't think scouts will ooze over his potential and he has no particular NBA-level skills. Plus he's a tweener. I don't see him being more than a possible late 2nd round pick. I base this on following the NBA closely not on any contact with NBA scouts so you might know better, Strickland. None of that means he wont test the wonders as I think all talented underclassmen should consider.

For the record, CJ moved from SG to PG between his freshman and soph years. His assists tripled but he couldn't focus on scoring. He's a natural 2. It's not fair to look at his progression as a model for CMM's next year.

 

[Deac83]

But again, this is where excitement about these guys sounds hypocritical from the rabidly BuzzIn crowd. The knock on Skip was always predicated on some critique of the fact that he loved to press with long athletes. Old-timers didn't want that, but now they do? Something isn't registering. (I'm actually really excited about this prospect, however.)

I don't remember people not wanting to press. I think the problem is we always heard about Skip's desire to press, but never had the right players, and our defense was a sieve. I think people were tired of hearing about a press than never materialized.

 

[Deacon93]

Ridiculous thread. Please post again!

 

[Deac83]

For better or worse, our A/TO ratio improves with CMM and Madison handling the ball, so some minor help there (just saying there is a little offset to CJ's scoring loss).

There is no way Bzz told CJ to only take 6 shots against Neb. IMO there was a period of the season where CJ just wasn't driving into the lane. I have no idea why he wasn't doing it, but it's is not like he needs someone to pass him the ball to do that, that's 100% on the player unless for some bizarre reason the coach tells him not to do it. Bzz may be bad but he's not that stupid. Given CJ's FT shooting, not driving the lane is a double loss for the team. Fortunately he's back on track now.

Certainly we can't point to the guy that we expect to step up. Part of that is we've got a bunch of good but not great players and secondly, with Travis and CJ, the offense is expected to come from them with the freshmen providing the supporting cast. That being said, I still think we've got more than a freshman class that was rated in the 'top 20' just on total numbers. Most times the 'numbers' aspect of the rating is true, but I think most of the frosh have shown flashes that would lead me to believe we have a better chance for more of them improving next year than not.

Just quickly looking at them:
CMM - nearly 2-1 A/TO ratio, UConn game shows what he capable of (after that game some people were worried he off to the NBA after his soph yr)
Devin - Rebounding machine, great passer, preseason we were told he was a foul machine and couldn't be counted on because of that
Cav - Showed 3pt shooting flashes in the pre-season, not afraid to mix it up inside, good FT shooting big
Moto - Actually has low post moves, I forget which game it was but he showed some moves we haven't seen in a while
Tree - Mr. everything, defensive energizer, could be a great 6th man
Jones - energy, defense, positive A/TO, seems to be best at running the offense. I don't think anyone expected this much from him.
Washington - I think it's going to take two years for him to make the jump. When centers come in and are not physically ready for primetime it seems it's their Jr before they come around, IMO.

 

[dalbertthekid]

Good source tells me that Travis realizes that, as of right now, he wouldn't get drafted and will be back for his senior year.

 

[WFDeacon]

I agree. I don't care for Buzz but today was the first time in quite a while that I really got into a Wake basketball game. Watching Devin and CJ play today was an absolute treat and I don't really care if it was against BC. BC is a better team that what most people think. They have improved alot. I really hope we can get more fans and students to come to the games because these guys deserve it.

I'm not going to use their youth and inexperience as an excuse, but Boston College is younger than Wake. I think it was Mike Gminski on the telecast that brought up the point that BC does not have any juniors or seniors on scholarship. BC is worse than us. We should have beaten them even with the coaching situation as bad as it is. The only thing BC has as an advantage over us is the coaching matchup..

 

[RJKarl]

Under Mark Gottfried, State has played thirteen ranked teams. They are 3-10.

That's a lot more like road kill than "giant killer". Remember they picked ahead of Duke in the ACC preseason.

 

[tau06]

Under Mark Gottfried, State has played thirteen ranked teams. They are 3-10.

That's a lot more like road kill than "giant killer". Remember they picked ahead of Duke in the ACC preseason.

And we beat Duke, as we should have without Kelly playing and being at home. The 3-10 against ranked is what it is, but there have only been a few of those games where NCSU was even close to the favorite. The 10 losses were to:

Vandy in 2011/12
Cuse in 2011/12
UNC x3 in 2011/12
Duke in 2011/12
FSU in 2011/12
UVA in 2011/12
Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen last season
@Michigan in 2012/12

So NCSU had clearly an inferior team to Kansas, Duke, Cuse and UNC talent wise last season (when at full strength when we played them) so that's 6 of the ten, then @Michigan this season is going to be a tough game for anyone, no matter where you are ranked pre-season. So in reality Gott is 3-4 against teams that we have the talent on the roster to play against. No team wants to have a .300 winning percentage against ranked opponents but I don't think that percentage is going to go anywhere but up from here on out. He's bringing in a ton of players and has the current team improving every game, as a competent coach should. I'm just glad to be excited about NCSU basketball again after so many years in the crapper.

 

[RJKarl]

A giant killer is a team who is not supposed to win but does. State was Top 10 preseason in some ratings. They have the talent to go very far this year,