State has replaced Wake
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DCDeac
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Obviously a fair concern. Codi outscored CJ in the Xavier game and Moto was the guy who got everything started against Moto. We certainly climbed on CJ's back for a quarter of the game last night and no player looks ready to play that roll next year.
But c'mon, "absolute ceiling?" I mean, Mitchell is a big time recruit. Even if you didn't know who was playing with him at all you can't justify that statement.
I agree with your overall point, but Xavier is not a good team at all. They lost their four best players last year.
Sportin' Woody
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Been Buzzout from day one but that does not mean I want our players to lose games. I am very happy for them for the wins over UVa and BC. That said... those are two awful teams and we were at home. The upcoming stretch of games will show us alot.
I remain convinced the Bz ceiling is medicrity.... that's unacceptable
I remain convinced the Bz ceiling is medicrity.... that's unacceptable
TUA01576
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Xavier is not that bad of a team. Ya they lost a lot of players and have some bizarre losses (Pacific, Wofford, Vandy, Tennessee) but have some good wins over Temple and Butler.
That's better.
#96 in the country per Kenpom.
Strickland33
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When you lose to four bad teams, they're not bizarre losses. They're just losses.
Xavier is a team that has talent, so of course they're going to beat decent teams that don't have a ton of talent (yes, I'm putting Butler in that group). Butler and Temple are volatile teams this year, to say the least.
We are a team that has talent, so of course we're going to beat decent teams that don't have a ton of talent (Xavier, Boston College, and Virginia). Like Xavier, our losses - Duke, Connecticut, Seton Hall, Richmond, etc.) - aren't bizarre; they're just losses.
Strickland33
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One more point for those who don't realize just how much we rely on CJ and Travis:
For as good as our freshmen have been, CJ and Travis night-in-and-night-out win games for us.
Looking forward to next season, when practical expectations suggest that Travis will be gone and that CJ will be graduated, who is going to step up? And, without Greg, are we really going to be that much better than we are this year?
PG: CMM and Madison
SG: Chase and Miles
SF: Arnaud and Aaron
PF: Devin and Tyler
C: Daniel and Andre
Actually, by the looks of that rotation and without unheard of improvement between years one and two out of predominately three-star players, we'll likely be worse.
Considering the fact that most of our players are of Chase and CJ's recruiting-stature: what are we reasonably expecting?
CJ Year 1 --> 2 (9.9 ppg [39% FG]--> 10.3 ppg [38% FG])
Chase Year 1 --> 2 (6.3 ppg [35% FG] --> 5.1 ppg [40% FG])
That's the kind of development that we can expect from our three star players next year:
Should Travis stay, he'll be the backbone of this team, but without a proven shot creator, I can't see how he's going to do a whole lot more than what he does now. Travis hasn't improved a whole lot in terms of skills or numbers from years 1 ---> 3 (13.0 ppg [50% FG] ---> 16.1 ppg [48% FG] ---> 15.2 ppg [45% FG]), so I feel comfortable making that claim.
Simply put, we could see a significant drop-off next year, seeing as we'll lose CJ, we'll likely lose Travis, and the only player we add is Miles Overton, who I think it is safe to say is neither going to play like junior Travis or senior CJ as a freshman. Furthermore, it doesn't look like four-stars Arnaud nor Codi will inherit that role, immediately, either. They'll be good, for sure, but not All-ACC good.
Just remember this before you put [Redacted] on an undeserved pedestal or make unrealistic projections about our team in 2013-2014. We could very well sink back into a hole, once again, of his own making.
For as good as our freshmen have been, CJ and Travis night-in-and-night-out win games for us.
Looking forward to next season, when practical expectations suggest that Travis will be gone and that CJ will be graduated, who is going to step up? And, without Greg, are we really going to be that much better than we are this year?
PG: CMM and Madison
SG: Chase and Miles
SF: Arnaud and Aaron
PF: Devin and Tyler
C: Daniel and Andre
Actually, by the looks of that rotation and without unheard of improvement between years one and two out of predominately three-star players, we'll likely be worse.
Considering the fact that most of our players are of Chase and CJ's recruiting-stature: what are we reasonably expecting?
CJ Year 1 --> 2 (9.9 ppg [39% FG]--> 10.3 ppg [38% FG])
Chase Year 1 --> 2 (6.3 ppg [35% FG] --> 5.1 ppg [40% FG])
That's the kind of development that we can expect from our three star players next year:
Should Travis stay, he'll be the backbone of this team, but without a proven shot creator, I can't see how he's going to do a whole lot more than what he does now. Travis hasn't improved a whole lot in terms of skills or numbers from years 1 ---> 3 (13.0 ppg [50% FG] ---> 16.1 ppg [48% FG] ---> 15.2 ppg [45% FG]), so I feel comfortable making that claim.
Simply put, we could see a significant drop-off next year, seeing as we'll lose CJ, we'll likely lose Travis, and the only player we add is Miles Overton, who I think it is safe to say is neither going to play like junior Travis or senior CJ as a freshman. Furthermore, it doesn't look like four-stars Arnaud nor Codi will inherit that role, immediately, either. They'll be good, for sure, but not All-ACC good.
Just remember this before you put [Redacted] on an undeserved pedestal or make unrealistic projections about our team in 2013-2014. We could very well sink back into a hole, once again, of his own making.
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Strickland33
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I can think of two: DV7 and Racer. Maybe somebody else, too. Just like there are really only three virulent BuzzInners: Schwabber, mabe, and one of the 80s.
Of all of the Wake fans that I know on this board and in my life, I can really only think of a handful of BuzzInners and LoseWakers, an absurdly marginal - though loud - group of Wake fans.
But that's it. I think in frustration you're resorting to a party line that's based on a straw man argument and reflects very little of what's actually happening in the fan base.
When we lost to Richmond and Nebraska, a certain subset of Wake fans said it was because Travis and CJ had off nights. Well, it's true that they did, but that's the point, isn't it? When we can't beat teams with such marginal talent as Richmond and Nebraska because our top two players had off nights, well, that's a problem.
ETA: don't think Travis is leaving, but I do think people who are expecting a big step forward next season will be disappointed. I expect another marginal step forward.
ETA: don't think Travis is leaving, but I do think people who are expecting a big step forward next season will be disappointed. I expect another marginal step forward.
Strickland33
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You're welcome to quote this for posterity, but I have a hunch that Travis is going to try his luck and hope to land in the bottom of a weak 2013 draft. At the very least, he'll declare and if he gets feedback as positive from scouts as he did from personnel last summer, then I think he's gone.
Remember that the 2014 draft is looking to be much stronger and deeper, especially on the wings.
It's just a hunch. I hope he returns, as he's our best scorer, but the writing is also on the wall.
It shouldn't come as a surprise at all that we are leaning heavily on the two leading returning scorers in the ACC. They are doing what they're supposed to do, score, and for Travis, rebounding as well. But they have limitations as players in other areas, playmaking, defense, etc. They both have ast:TO less than 1, they get 30% or less of the assists, etc. Other players are contributing significantly in everything besides scoring. You want to factor CJ and Travis out of the equation and just evaluate a coach on their freshman players? I don't really follow.
You can call them holdovers from Dino's time but I don't see much to indicate that Bdelik isn't recruiting players of their level- 3-4 star, top 60-125 in high school. It's not like either is an all-American. Travis to the NBA is an absolute joke. There is a zero percent chance he could be a 2nd round pick right now.
I think we have a chance to finish at or near .500 this season. Not close to where we want to be, I agree. Any hope I might have for the future hinges on the fact that I think each of our 7 freshman have ACC level talent. I have seen improvement from Devin, Moto, Madison and others as the season progresses. They are playing like a team. The effort, energy and results are significantly better than the last 2 years over the last 8 games or so. The crowd is coming to life in our games. We are winning despite having only 2 legitimate post players and both are freshman.
I'd be curious who thought that our frontcourt would be holding their own as much as they have as young, undersized and thin as it is. I think the coaching staff deserves some credit for that. Our post D has changed dramatically since Nebraska.
I'm not BuzzIn. But I am not blind to the surprising turn of trajectory over the last 6 games when I felt we were looking at a 10 win season.
Strickland33
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This is not true.
Off nights would be an understatement. When your top two scorers account for 15 (Richmond in a 2 point loss) and 10 (Nebraska), you are not winning. If they had only had an 'off' night we would have beaten Richmond and at least been in the game with Nebraska.
The biggest jump for non-centers is between their frosh and soph years, the odds are one or two guys are going to make a big leap when you have this many frosh. I would also suggest that most of our frosh have shown more maturity than most frosh show this early in their careers. I find it hard to believe that out of CMM, Madison, Tree, Moto, Devin and Cav, none of them are going to step up. Just watching Devin you can tell he absolutely hates to lose, so I'm betting he'll come back with an improved offensive game.
Oh and lets not forget Green will be back.
Fuck Your Couch
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I really hope Travis doesn't leave early for a small chance at a non-guaranteed NBA contract.
OldGoldBeard
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Over the last 10 years, how many of our players have made a big jump between their freshman and sophomore years? How many of those jumps occurred independently from a substantial increase in minutes?