Off nights would be an understatement. When your top two scorers account for 15 (Richmond in a 2 point loss) and 10 (Nebraska), you are not winning. If they had only had an 'off' night we would have beaten Richmond and at least been in the game with Nebraska.
The biggest jump for non-centers is between their frosh and soph years, the odds are one or two guys are going to make a big leap when you have this many frosh. I would also suggest that most of our frosh have shown more maturity than most frosh show this early in their careers. I find it hard to believe that out of CMM, Madison, Tree, Moto, Devin and Cav, none of them are going to step up. Just watching Devin you can tell he absolutely hates to lose, so I'm betting he'll come back with an improved offensive game.
Oh and lets not forget Green will be back.
Your platitudes are well-spoken, but reality suggests that only one of these guys are going to experience a significant jump and there is such a thing as a sophomore wall (just ask Chase).
I know you didn't read my post, but once again, let's look at our freshmen production:
Devin (5.8 ppg)
Tyler (5.8 ppg)
Aaron (3.5 ppg)
Madison (4.5 ppg)
Andre (0.9 ppg)
Daniel (1.4 ppg)
CJ is responsible for 18% of our possessions. Travis is responsible for 20%. Should both guys leave, that opens up 40% of our offensive possessions for the newcomers. But, college basketball tells us that really only one guys is going to get a lion's-share of those possessions.
CMM seems the most likely candidate and his stats per 40 minutes (better than pace adjusted since we're speaking in PURE hypotheticals) are as follows:
-11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists (2.8 turnovers), and 0.8 steals.
Those stats are representative, more or less, CMM with CJ's current minutes. Factor in the sophomore bump and you're maybe at 13, 4, and 4 as reasonable expectations for CMM's year two without CJ.
Looking at our recent big men, particularly those who came before Devin (and given how Devin has simultaneously qualitatively met and quantitatively failed to meet the expectations that many, myself included, expected from him this season), and you're looking at, best case scenario,
Vytas Danelius from his freshman to his sophomore year.
Here's a good place to note a Devin vs. Vytas statistical comparison:
Devin Thomas (FR)
Per Game (24.1 mpg) - 5.8 ppg (42.3% 2FG, 50% FT), 6.6 rpg, 1.4 apg (2.4 TOpg), 0.8 spg, 1.3 bpg
Per 40 minutes pace adjusted - 9.3 p, 10.7 r, 2.2 a (3.8 TO), 1.3 s, 2.1 b
Vytas Danelius (FR)
Per Game (16.8 mpg) - 6.6 ppg (57.9% 2FG and 72.4% FT), 4.2 rpg, 0.4 apg (0.7 TOpg), 0.2 spg, 0.5 bpg
Per 40 minutes pace adjusted - 14.9 p, 9.4 r, 0.8 a (1.7 TO), 0.5 spg, 1.1 bpg.
Vytas Danelius (SO)
Per Game (30.8 mpg) - 12.3 ppg (54% 2FG, 37.5% 3FG, 78.4% FT), 7.5 rpg, 1.3 apg (2.3 TOpg), 0.5 spg, 0.8 bpg
Two things:
1) I use Vytas because he matched his freshman projections, per game, as a sophomore and was statistically and characteristically similar as a freshman to a lot of what Devin does now, but on a much better team.
2) Of our big men dating back to 2002, Vytas has been, arguably, our best big man in terms of improvement between year one and two relative to Devin Thomas. I picked Vytas over E because E's freshman year was with a jacked front court and in back of Vytas. I contend that E would have probably posted his sophomore stats as a freshmen without the glut of frontcourt talent that we had in freshman year.
Let me know, then, if the following makes sense:
Vytas, let's note, was a
far better prospect (RSCI 85) coming out of HS than Devin, but even so, CMM plus Devin's best-case 12.3 and 7.5 is not enough to get us into the NCAA Tournament, which are reasonable expectations from a fourth-year coach in the ACC.
