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Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 2022-23 hoops season

freakadeac said:
tourney or bust

is our OOC stronger this year?
Click to expand...
Sorry if this has been posted, but Kenpom just released its 2022-23 ratings, and they aren't a fan of WF's offseason changes. WF ended last season at #32 on KP ratings, and WF opens this season at #80.

The top 10 are:

1. KY
2. Texas
3. Gonzaga
4. TN
5. Virginia (! - I really really like UVA going into this year; veteran team who all have bought in to Bennett's system, but even I don't think they are top 5)
6. Baylor
7. Houston
8. Kansas
9. UNC (agree, overrated as consensus #1; UNC got hot to close last season, but they were ordinary for much of last year; reality is somewhere in between the top team in the nation and fringe top 25)
10. Arizona

WF's OOC schedule is much tougher this year with only 2 teams rated 186 or below (roughly the bottom half of D1). Last year, WF played 8 games against teams in the bottom half.
 
Pilchard said:
Sorry if this has been posted, but Kenpom just released its 2022-23 ratings, and they aren't a fan of WF's offseason changes. WF ended last season at #32 on KP ratings, and WF opens this season at #80.

The top 10 are:

1. KY
2. Texas
3. Gonzaga
4. TN
5. Virginia (! - I really really like UVA going into this year; veteran team who all have bought in to Bennett's system, but even I don't think they are top 5)
6. Baylor
7. Houston
8. Kansas
9. UNC (agree, overrated as consensus #1; UNC got hot to close last season, but they were ordinary for much of last year; reality is somewhere in between the top team in the nation and fringe top 25)
10. Arizona

WF's OOC schedule is much tougher this year with only 2 teams rated 186 or below (roughly the bottom half of D1). Last year, WF played 8 games against teams in the bottom half.
Click to expand...
Where were we last year preseason and how did they feel about those changes? Seems maybe better comparison?
 
Losing so much production kills you in KP, even when factoring in the transfers (who were all pretty efficient players, looking at last year’s ratings).
 

AP Preseason Top 25​

First-place votes in parentheses:

1. North Carolina (47)
2. Gonzaga (12)
3. Houston (1)
4. Kentucky (2)
5. Kansas
5. Baylor
7. Duke
8. UCLA
9. Creighton
10. Arkansas
11. Tennessee
12. Texas
13. Indiana
14. TCU
15. Auburn
16. Villanova
17. Arizona
18. Virginia
19. San Diego St.
20. Alabama
21. Oregon
22. Michigan
23. Illinois
24. Dayton
25. Texas Tech
 
More on the KenPom preseason take (ranking out of 363)
Record - 14-16 (8-12), 11th in ACC
Ranking - 80th (O: 61, D 101)
ACC - 10th offense, 14th on defense, 2nd in tempo

ACC tightly bunched — no one worse than 117th or 6-14 expectation, with GT the only team outside the top 100. The conference is expected to improve slightly overall — from +10.7 (up from +6 prior to the tournaments) to +14.3 points per 100.

UVA (5), UNC (9), Duke (15), VT (21) are the teams that are expected to make the tournament.

Everyone else is congregated around the bubble (# 45 or so is usually the last at-large team) to slightly worse.

Opening game: #188 Fairfield, Wake projected to win 76-64
 
The ACC has had at least one team worse than #150 every year since our boy [Redacted] was the first ACC coach to do it in 2011 (he did it with style, dropping all the way down to #259 out of then 345 D1 teams).

It happened zero times from the advent of the KP ratings in 2002 through 2010.

GT is currently projected at #117 but expect someone to get down under #150
 
I think I agree someone will get there (below 150). What makes this year a little different is that there isn’t a team that looks like the obvious candidate to be that bad.
 
Here are Bart Torvik's pre-season top 25 teams:

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. TN
4. UNC
5. Duke
6. Houston
7. Texas
8. KY
9. UCLA
10. KS
11. Indiana
12. TCU
13. AZ
14. SD State
15. Illinois
16. Arkansas
17. Nova
18. UVA
19. A&M
20. Xavier
21. Miami
22. Auburn
23. Creighton
24. VT
25. Florida

Torvik is more bullish on the ACC as he has 6 ACCT teams (UNC, Duke, UVA, Miami, VT and Notre Dame).

Torvik is not very positive about WF as he has #88 WF as the 11the best ACC team (behind those 6 NCAAT teams, and also behind Clemson, FSU, Cuse, BC (!)). WF projected with a 14-16 regular season record; 8-12 in the ACC

Torvik has WF with the #65 offense and the #115 defense (WF finished last year with the #38 offense and the #41 defense). WF has a 3% chance for an NCAAT bid according to Bart.
 
This Sunday, WF scrimmages tOSU at Concord University in WV (not sure how that site was picked).

Here is a link to all of the "Secret Scrimmages"

In addition to WF v. Ohio State, UNC hosts Rutgers, NC State hosts Davidson and Duke plays at Houston.
 
Concord University is right off I-77. It's 2:15 drive from Winston and 4 hr drive from Columbus.
 
We aren't going to look good in any pre-season rankings... computer or otherwise.

Media sees Alondes and Jake in the NBA and thinks we can't possibly recover.

And when you look at minutes we lost, it is scary:
Williams - 34.1mpg
Laravia - 34.2mpg
Mucius - 27.2mpg
Walton - 25.7mpg
Sy - 19.4mpg
Whitt - 11.9mpg

Top returners:
Williamson - 30.2mpg
Monsanto - 16.1mpg (17 games)
Hildreth - 13.3mpg

That's it for guys that played more than 10mpg last year. Would be a huge leap of faith for anyone to expect us to be in the mix for the NCAAs based on that turnover.
 
I would make the annual "How many expected wins" thread, but I don't know how to make a poll with the software update. :(
 
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