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WF Game 16: UVA @ LJVM -- Saturday 2 pm - ESPN2

Pilchard

Pilchard

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This Saturday, WF faces rested UVA in a contest between NCAAT hopefuls. Here's a look at the Hoos:

UVA 11-4 (2-2) #60. UVA's up and down season is currently in a "down" cycle. The Wahoos won their first 4 including a neutral court win over Florida raising their KP rating #19. Wisconsin then crushed the Cavs, and UVA barely beat a weak WV team to fall to #42. UVA then pounded #35 Texas A&M, and #79 Cuse to climb up to #25, but recent struggles against #43 Memphis (lost by 23), #151 ND (lost by 22) and #63 NC State (lost by 16) have dropped UVA to #60 in the country. The Cavs were a projected top 3 ACC team to start the season, but as the result of a disappointing start, KP currently projects UVA to finish 10-10 in the ACC and out of the NCAAT. UVA has had a week off since its most recent loss to the Pack, and UVA is in desperate need of wins, as the Cavs still face a series of daunting road games (@WF, @ Clemson, @ FSU, @VT, @ UNC, @ Duke - UVA will be a dog in all of those games - IIRC, UVA is the only ACC team to play at UNC, Duke, WF and Clemson this year). So, far UVA is 0-3 in true road games, and none have been close than 16 points.

The Analytics: the matchup numbers are posted below, but two elements never change for UVA under Bennett - incredibly slow pace; elite defense.

UVA Offense ------------ WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 107 #127 ------ 101 #93
Eff. FG% 51 #132 ------- 48 #106
TO% 13 #6 ------------ 18 #154
3 PT% 36 #77 --------- 34 #227
2 PT% 50 #178 -------- 47% #64

WF Offense ------------ UVA Defense
Adj. Eff. 116 #25 ------- 95 #23
Eff. FG% 55 #32 ------- 45 #15
TO% 15 #54 ----------- 22 #25
3 PT% 38 #25 --------- 30 #38
2 PT% 54 #70 --------- 45 #33

While UVA's defensive numbers are excellent, their defense has regressed in recent years as Bennett's defenses had a run through 2020 of #4, #2, #7, #2, #1, #5, #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency; UVA's D is not close to that level now. One thing that has not changed with Cavs is turtle tempo. Currently, UVA is #362 as in DFL in the nation in adjusted tempo as UVA games average 61 possessions a game (the national average is 69; WF games average 69 as well). UVA is #68 in average height ; WF is #62.

The Roster:

Against the Pack, the Wahoos started:

6-3 4th year Reece Beekman: leader in points (13), assists (6) and steals (2.5); struggled from three so far 27% (35% last year); didn't attempt a three against NC State; elite defender (#20 in the nation in steal %).
6-4 2nd year Isaac McKneely: superior three point shooter (49%); 8 for 14 from deep in the last two games; 34% from 2;
6-6 2nd year Andrew Rhode: disappointing transfer (from St. Thomas) was among the highest scoring freshman in the nation last year; rep as an elite shooter; has not been able to get out of his own way on offense this year (29% from thee; 38% from 2; 30% from the line)
6-8 2nd year Ryan Dunn: elite athlete (brother plays in the MLB), 117 O rating; 2nd in steals; first in boards; has struggled from three; NBA potential; 16 points against the Pack
6-11 1st year Blake Buchanan: got his first start since November against the Pack; 4 points and 5 boards in that game; scored 18 points in the win over FL; hasn't scored in double figures in any other game

Bench: OU transfer Jake Groves is 6-9 and averages 7 ppg 41% from three; Kiwi 6-5 Taine Murray shoots 41% from three; 6-4 frosh Elijah Gertude was a top 50 recruit and was injured to start the year; 6-8 Merrimack transfer Jordan Minor was rated as top portal win for UVA, but has busted. A big Tony Bennett fan, but Forbes been the superior portal evaluator (even though UVA received higher grades initially) by far.

Projection:
KP: WF 68-63
Torvik 66-62 WF

UVA has been atrocious on the road this year to the point where they have not played a competitive game. This includes an inexplicable 22 point loss at ND. Other than UVA's extra prep time for WF, all other factors point to a WF win on Saturday. Throwing out the L'ville result, UVA's offense has been horrendous over recent games, and their defense has underperformed UVA's high standards (UVA is next to last in the conference in two point defense in ACC games). Deacs need to keep McKneely from going off from three, and must show that the turnover fest against FSU was an aberration. Great teams play angry and bounce-back quickly after losses, want to see this team prove it can be great against a sub-par UVA team. If the line is 5 or lower, would lean WF, and if the total is 131 or less, would lean OVER. Deacs will defend their home court. FWIW, after Saturday's game, WF may be dogs in 3 of its next 4 games. Such a huge difference between 4-1 and 3-2.
 
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UVA PG Dante Harris (G'town transfer) injured his ankle before Thanksgiving. It was a severe injury. There are murmurs he may return to action Saturday. Harris only played 6 games before getting injured, and so far, he's another disappointing transfer for the Hoos.
 
I hope Bennett thinks long and hard about that. Boopie may break both Harris' ankles Saturday.
 
Can't lose at home. We play at UVA later in the year and we absolutely, 100%, cannot get swept by UVA. Let's win this one big and get back on track before we play the Pack.
 
thatguy2016 said:
Can't lose at home. We play at UVA later in the year and we absolutely, 100%, cannot get swept by UVA. Let's win this one big and get back on track before we play the Pack.
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I don't want to jinx us, but the Pack cannot shoot. They missed many open shots vs UNC last night, and they set a record for lowest FG% (28%) by a winning team against BC earlier this year. I really like DJ Burns though. He's a load who can post up, and pass to open man if doubled. State tries to run their offense through him (as they should).
 
Excellent preview as usual Pilch. UVA started out playing crappy in November, recovered to play some excellent games before xmas and has been crap since, including a poorly played game against Louvul, who is truly awful. I love Beekman's, McKneely's and Dunn's games, though Dunn needs to be more assertive on offense. In the words of Pat Riley, you absolutely must take away McKneely's air space, which Syracuse did not do. Beekman would rather distribute but has been forced to become more of a scorer. Rohde should have remained a volume shooter for a school like St. Thomas - he's not an ACC caliber athlete. Buchanan will eventually be a good big once he bulks up and gets stronger, but he's soft at this point. Speaking of soft, Groves is 1 of the softer 6'9" players I have seen, and he's an upper classman. But he can shoot, so take away his air space. I was not impressed with Dante Harris before his injury. The guy who intrigues me is Gertrude, a raw freshman who can jump out of the gym but can't hit a pig's ass with a banjo at this point. He's been playing recently, and I'd rather struggle with his growing pains than watch Rohde get abused defensively and contribute little offensively. I've heard reports no one can guard him in practice and that he just needs to take that play to actual games. I also like Bond, a red shirt freshman SF who played with his back to the basket in HS and is learning to transition to more of a wing. And yeah, Minor has been a bust, and Murray is a jag. We should out rebound them by double digits and win by double digits unless they can find their early December form. The big problem they've been having recently is getting any offensive production out of anyone not named Beekman, Dunn and McKneely.

NFD, Boopie will have Beekman on him most all of the game. Beekman is an elite defender who should stick on as a #2 PG in the Association. Sallis needs to break out of his 2 game slump and abuse Rohde when Rohde is on him. But my guess is they'll have Dunn. Bond or Gertrude on him most of the game. Dunn is also an elite defender who will be a pro who can guard the 1-4 at the next level. UVA is vulnerable inside. We need Reid and Carr to have more than 3-5 shots apiece and get the ball inside.

Pilch, I hope you accept my friendly amendments to your motion. (And for the record, there are many purple schools not named St. Thomas who could handle UVA right about now.)

Awaken, completely agree about DJ Burns and State. He has that Jokic passing ability, though is fatter than Jokic these days.
 
awaken said:
I don't want to jinx us, but the Pack cannot shoot. They missed many open shots vs UNC last night, and they set a record for lowest FG% (28%) by a winning team against BC earlier this year. I really like DJ Burns though. He's a load who can post up, and pass to open man if doubled. State tries to run their offense through him (as they should).
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Can someone explain how the refs allow Burns to continually catch the ball ten feet from the basket and bang and bang against his defender until he gets close enough to shoot a layup or a short hook shot. The back and forth banging between Burns and Bacot last night was unbelievable.
There is no way two guards in the middle of the floor would be allowed to do this!
 
JOJESMA said:
Can someone explain how the refs allow Burns to continually catch the ball ten feet from the basket and bang and bang against his defender until he gets close enough to shoot a layup or a short hook shot. The back and forth banging between Burns and Bacot last night was unbelievable.
There is no way two guards in the middle of the floor would be allowed to do this!
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Bacot should've pulled the chair out from under Burns
 
I haven't been to a game since the Charleston tournament so this out to be good.
 
Agreed with chair pull defense of Burns. F-ton is tall enough that even if Burns did not fall on his fat arse, he could still block his shot from behind.
 
Did she graduate from Wake yet or will we be subjected to more repeated pans of Tony Bennett's daughter while she vigorously pulls against the Deacs?
 
inspectah_ said:
Did she graduate from Wake yet or will we be subjected to more repeated pans of Tony Bennett's daughter while she vigorously pulls against the Deacs?
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She graduated.

And I just talked to his son today. Said he was impressed with our recent hot streak and mentioned the OT win vs Miami. Agreed with me that it’s an absolute must win for both teams. #CrazyHugeScoop

I’ll be in the house Saturday, ready to see the Joel rocking. We still owe UVA a ridiculous last-minute comeback win. Another nice alternative would just be to overwhelm them from the opening tip.
 
DeacDaddy said:
She graduated.

And I just talked to his son today. Said he was impressed with our recent hot streak and mentioned the OT win vs Miami. Agreed with me that it’s an absolute must win for both teams. #CrazyHugeScoop

I’ll be in the house Saturday, ready to see the Joel rocking. We still owe UVA a ridiculous last-minute comeback win. Another nice alternative would just be to overwhelm them from the opening tip.
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Does the son go to Wake too?
 
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