Pilchard
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This Saturday, WF faces rested UVA in a contest between NCAAT hopefuls. Here's a look at the Hoos:
UVA 11-4 (2-2) #60. UVA's up and down season is currently in a "down" cycle. The Wahoos won their first 4 including a neutral court win over Florida raising their KP rating #19. Wisconsin then crushed the Cavs, and UVA barely beat a weak WV team to fall to #42. UVA then pounded #35 Texas A&M, and #79 Cuse to climb up to #25, but recent struggles against #43 Memphis (lost by 23), #151 ND (lost by 22) and #63 NC State (lost by 16) have dropped UVA to #60 in the country. The Cavs were a projected top 3 ACC team to start the season, but as the result of a disappointing start, KP currently projects UVA to finish 10-10 in the ACC and out of the NCAAT. UVA has had a week off since its most recent loss to the Pack, and UVA is in desperate need of wins, as the Cavs still face a series of daunting road games (@WF, @ Clemson, @ FSU, @VT, @ UNC, @ Duke - UVA will be a dog in all of those games - IIRC, UVA is the only ACC team to play at UNC, Duke, WF and Clemson this year). So, far UVA is 0-3 in true road games, and none have been close than 16 points.
The Analytics: the matchup numbers are posted below, but two elements never change for UVA under Bennett - incredibly slow pace; elite defense.
UVA Offense ------------ WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 107 #127 ------ 101 #93
Eff. FG% 51 #132 ------- 48 #106
TO% 13 #6 ------------ 18 #154
3 PT% 36 #77 --------- 34 #227
2 PT% 50 #178 -------- 47% #64
WF Offense ------------ UVA Defense
Adj. Eff. 116 #25 ------- 95 #23
Eff. FG% 55 #32 ------- 45 #15
TO% 15 #54 ----------- 22 #25
3 PT% 38 #25 --------- 30 #38
2 PT% 54 #70 --------- 45 #33
While UVA's defensive numbers are excellent, their defense has regressed in recent years as Bennett's defenses had a run through 2020 of #4, #2, #7, #2, #1, #5, #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency; UVA's D is not close to that level now. One thing that has not changed with Cavs is turtle tempo. Currently, UVA is #362 as in DFL in the nation in adjusted tempo as UVA games average 61 possessions a game (the national average is 69; WF games average 69 as well). UVA is #68 in average height ; WF is #62.
The Roster:
Against the Pack, the Wahoos started:
6-3 4th year Reece Beekman: leader in points (13), assists (6) and steals (2.5); struggled from three so far 27% (35% last year); didn't attempt a three against NC State; elite defender (#20 in the nation in steal %).
6-4 2nd year Isaac McKneely: superior three point shooter (49%); 8 for 14 from deep in the last two games; 34% from 2;
6-6 2nd year Andrew Rhode: disappointing transfer (from St. Thomas) was among the highest scoring freshman in the nation last year; rep as an elite shooter; has not been able to get out of his own way on offense this year (29% from thee; 38% from 2; 30% from the line)
6-8 2nd year Ryan Dunn: elite athlete (brother plays in the MLB), 117 O rating; 2nd in steals; first in boards; has struggled from three; NBA potential; 16 points against the Pack
6-11 1st year Blake Buchanan: got his first start since November against the Pack; 4 points and 5 boards in that game; scored 18 points in the win over FL; hasn't scored in double figures in any other game
Bench: OU transfer Jake Groves is 6-9 and averages 7 ppg 41% from three; Kiwi 6-5 Taine Murray shoots 41% from three; 6-4 frosh Elijah Gertude was a top 50 recruit and was injured to start the year; 6-8 Merrimack transfer Jordan Minor was rated as top portal win for UVA, but has busted. A big Tony Bennett fan, but Forbes been the superior portal evaluator (even though UVA received higher grades initially) by far.
Projection:
KP: WF 68-63
Torvik 66-62 WF
UVA has been atrocious on the road this year to the point where they have not played a competitive game. This includes an inexplicable 22 point loss at ND. Other than UVA's extra prep time for WF, all other factors point to a WF win on Saturday. Throwing out the L'ville result, UVA's offense has been horrendous over recent games, and their defense has underperformed UVA's high standards (UVA is next to last in the conference in two point defense in ACC games). Deacs need to keep McKneely from going off from three, and must show that the turnover fest against FSU was an aberration. Great teams play angry and bounce-back quickly after losses, want to see this team prove it can be great against a sub-par UVA team. If the line is 5 or lower, would lean WF, and if the total is 131 or less, would lean OVER. Deacs will defend their home court. FWIW, after Saturday's game, WF may be dogs in 3 of its next 4 games. Such a huge difference between 4-1 and 3-2.
UVA 11-4 (2-2) #60. UVA's up and down season is currently in a "down" cycle. The Wahoos won their first 4 including a neutral court win over Florida raising their KP rating #19. Wisconsin then crushed the Cavs, and UVA barely beat a weak WV team to fall to #42. UVA then pounded #35 Texas A&M, and #79 Cuse to climb up to #25, but recent struggles against #43 Memphis (lost by 23), #151 ND (lost by 22) and #63 NC State (lost by 16) have dropped UVA to #60 in the country. The Cavs were a projected top 3 ACC team to start the season, but as the result of a disappointing start, KP currently projects UVA to finish 10-10 in the ACC and out of the NCAAT. UVA has had a week off since its most recent loss to the Pack, and UVA is in desperate need of wins, as the Cavs still face a series of daunting road games (@WF, @ Clemson, @ FSU, @VT, @ UNC, @ Duke - UVA will be a dog in all of those games - IIRC, UVA is the only ACC team to play at UNC, Duke, WF and Clemson this year). So, far UVA is 0-3 in true road games, and none have been close than 16 points.
The Analytics: the matchup numbers are posted below, but two elements never change for UVA under Bennett - incredibly slow pace; elite defense.
UVA Offense ------------ WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 107 #127 ------ 101 #93
Eff. FG% 51 #132 ------- 48 #106
TO% 13 #6 ------------ 18 #154
3 PT% 36 #77 --------- 34 #227
2 PT% 50 #178 -------- 47% #64
WF Offense ------------ UVA Defense
Adj. Eff. 116 #25 ------- 95 #23
Eff. FG% 55 #32 ------- 45 #15
TO% 15 #54 ----------- 22 #25
3 PT% 38 #25 --------- 30 #38
2 PT% 54 #70 --------- 45 #33
While UVA's defensive numbers are excellent, their defense has regressed in recent years as Bennett's defenses had a run through 2020 of #4, #2, #7, #2, #1, #5, #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency; UVA's D is not close to that level now. One thing that has not changed with Cavs is turtle tempo. Currently, UVA is #362 as in DFL in the nation in adjusted tempo as UVA games average 61 possessions a game (the national average is 69; WF games average 69 as well). UVA is #68 in average height ; WF is #62.
The Roster:
Against the Pack, the Wahoos started:
6-3 4th year Reece Beekman: leader in points (13), assists (6) and steals (2.5); struggled from three so far 27% (35% last year); didn't attempt a three against NC State; elite defender (#20 in the nation in steal %).
6-4 2nd year Isaac McKneely: superior three point shooter (49%); 8 for 14 from deep in the last two games; 34% from 2;
6-6 2nd year Andrew Rhode: disappointing transfer (from St. Thomas) was among the highest scoring freshman in the nation last year; rep as an elite shooter; has not been able to get out of his own way on offense this year (29% from thee; 38% from 2; 30% from the line)
6-8 2nd year Ryan Dunn: elite athlete (brother plays in the MLB), 117 O rating; 2nd in steals; first in boards; has struggled from three; NBA potential; 16 points against the Pack
6-11 1st year Blake Buchanan: got his first start since November against the Pack; 4 points and 5 boards in that game; scored 18 points in the win over FL; hasn't scored in double figures in any other game
Bench: OU transfer Jake Groves is 6-9 and averages 7 ppg 41% from three; Kiwi 6-5 Taine Murray shoots 41% from three; 6-4 frosh Elijah Gertude was a top 50 recruit and was injured to start the year; 6-8 Merrimack transfer Jordan Minor was rated as top portal win for UVA, but has busted. A big Tony Bennett fan, but Forbes been the superior portal evaluator (even though UVA received higher grades initially) by far.
Projection:
KP: WF 68-63
Torvik 66-62 WF
UVA has been atrocious on the road this year to the point where they have not played a competitive game. This includes an inexplicable 22 point loss at ND. Other than UVA's extra prep time for WF, all other factors point to a WF win on Saturday. Throwing out the L'ville result, UVA's offense has been horrendous over recent games, and their defense has underperformed UVA's high standards (UVA is next to last in the conference in two point defense in ACC games). Deacs need to keep McKneely from going off from three, and must show that the turnover fest against FSU was an aberration. Great teams play angry and bounce-back quickly after losses, want to see this team prove it can be great against a sub-par UVA team. If the line is 5 or lower, would lean WF, and if the total is 131 or less, would lean OVER. Deacs will defend their home court. FWIW, after Saturday's game, WF may be dogs in 3 of its next 4 games. Such a huge difference between 4-1 and 3-2.
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