• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

WF MBB - Game 13 - @BC 7pm Tuesday ACCN

deacon14 said:
Seems like an aggressive expectation for a game that Wake is only favored in by 1.5 points.

Don't get me wrong, I think that in order to realize our NCAAT hopes winning games like this is important. But it's our first ACC road game and it's against a middle of the pack ACC team. The sky isn't falling if we lose a close one tonight.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with the 2nd statement. A close loss wouldn't be a crazy negative result.

My book has it at Wake -2.5 and KP shows a 54% chance of a Wake win. I still think KP is underrating the Deacs, so I think it's closer to 60% than a 50/50 split.
 
I think with efton guarding him you don't need to double unless it's for a change of pace/surprise kind of defense to use once in a while.

If Keller is guarding him maybe double more often
 
deacon14 said:
Seems like an aggressive expectation for a game that Wake is only favored in by 1.5 points.

Don't get me wrong, I think that in order to realize our NCAAT hopes winning games like this is important. But it's our first ACC road game and it's against a middle of the pack ACC team. The sky isn't falling if we lose a close one tonight.
Click to expand...

Howdy stranger - New around these here parts??
 
Maybe I'm just scarred by the abysmal ACC road record of the last decade, but it's tough for me to go into any ACC road game against a team that isn't ND/Louisville-level terrible and firmly expect to win. But I do believe that we are a better team than BC overall.

This BC team hasn't played a game in 12 days, so maybe that plays into our favor. We have the opposite problem though, as it's a quick turnaround from Saturday to Tuesday. We do that all season though, so it needs to be a non-issue for us. Monsanto having some depth to avoid tired legs would help a lot in that regard.
 
Post can shoot the three ball, so he's more in the Utah/LSU big man mold than Kidd was for VPI where Keller thrived. I think it will be a total team effort there. Might be a game where Keller struggles defensively, but hopefully we get more of the same that we had against VPI. Interested to see how Reid fares against this type of big man.
 
I expect Sallis to be able to get to the rim and create off the dribble pretty well tonight.
 
Keller needs to play early and often. Keep Reid from sniffing foul trouble. Then let Sallis and Hildreth drive into Post to pick up some fouls.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
deacon14 said:
Maybe I'm just scarred by the abysmal ACC road record of the last decade, but it's tough for me to go into any ACC road game against a team that isn't ND/Louisville-level terrible and firmly expect to win. But I do believe that we are a better team than BC overall.
Click to expand...

Completely agree - But my comment was directed at the "sky isn't falling if we lose a close one tonight" as the usual suspects will log on and the Forbes credibility thread might even get a bump
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Post can shoot the three ball, so he's more in the Utah/LSU big man mold than Kidd was for VPI where Keller thrived. I think it will be a total team effort there. Might be a game where Keller struggles defensively, but hopefully we get more of the same that we had against VPI. Interested to see how Reid fares against this type of big man.
Click to expand...

Not taking anything away from Keller, but I think if that game was at VT, Kidd would have been shooting free throws pretty much all game long. He absorbed a lot of contact.
 
Yeah the refs seem to let a lot go all game honestly across the board. I would have to go back and watch it to see his plays in particular. I thought he did a fantastic job of holding his ground and staying vertical for the most part.
 
BC is 9-3 (#90). They are 0-1 in the ACC with an OT home loss to NC State. WF is up to #43 in KP. KP gives BC 2.9 points for playing at home (#199) in NCAA.

Analytic snap shot for tonight:

BC Offense ------------- WF Defense
Adj. Eff: 110 (#69) ------------- 99 (#75)
Eff. FG% 53 (#73) -------------- 47 (#78)
TO% 14 (#21) -------------- 19 (#108)
Off. Reb.% 29 (#199) ----------- 29 (#159)
3 PT% 35 (#92) -------------- 32 (#118)
2 PT% 53 (#89) --------------- 47 (#87)

WF Offense --------------- BC Defense
Adj. Eff. 114 (#33) ------------- 101 #123
Eff. FG% 55 (#37) ------------- 49 #133
TO% 15 (#38) ---------------- 18 (#141)
Off. Reb.% 27 (#245) --------- 26 (#73)
3 PT% 37 (#47) --------------- 35 (#255)
2 PT% 55 (#59) ------------- 47 (#74)

54% of BC's offense comes from 2 point shots; so, inside defense for WF is huge; led by Quinten Post, all five of BC starters average more than 51% on their two point shots. WF has a big four scorers, but BC does as well, as the Eagles have four players with "O" ratings of 116 or better:

  • Quinten Post 116
  • Jaeden Zachery 120
  • Claudell Harris 121
  • Devin McGlockton 127
On the road or on neutral courts, WF has lost 10 straight games against top 100 teams (2 this year: @UGA and Utah). BC is #90. WF dominated #170 BC last year in Conte (85-63). BC was bad last year; they are better this year.

My dispassionate handicap of this game is that BC is the "right side". They have been off for 11 days; they already lost one home conference game, and WF is coming off a close to flawless performance and now has a quick turnaround. Would expect BC's A game; WF played their A game on Saturday.

That said, the early action is on the WF side as the line opened at pick at WF is now -2. The reason is WF is playing elite basketball right now. Since Efton Reid was declared eligible, WF is #16 in the nation. BC has played better lately too as they were #65 in December. This is a tough game for WF, but the type of game that good teams find a way to win. WF wins this one, and the Deacs are good, maybe very good.
 
awakegirl said:
Anyone else going besides numbers? Hoping we have a decent showing of the Boston Deacs.
Click to expand...
Driving up after work. Hopefully more wake fans than bc fans (there normally aren’t many)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top