Pilchard
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Our 3-3 Deacs host the Florida Gators this Wednesday. Big game for WF as only five OOC games remain. Three of those five are/should be noncompetitive (#352 NJIT, #319 Del. State and #289 Presbyterian); so, the next two games (Florida and Rutgers) present the best and only remaining chances for the Deacs to grab a quality OOC win. Right now, WF's best OOC win is over #194 Towson; that's not going to get it done. Here is the breakdown of UF:
4-2 #28 Florida: Wednesday's game will be UF's 4th outing against an ACC team; the Gators lost 73-70 to # 42 UVA, and blew out #71 FSU (89-68) and #43 Pitt (86-71); last time out, the Gators lost a tight one to #11 Baylor (95-91). As evidenced from the high scores (only UVA has held UF to less than 89), the Gators have a high octane offense, and push pace (#17 in offensive possession length). The analytics:
Offense:
Efficiency: 117 - #16
Effective FG%: 54% - #79
O Reb% - 44% - #3
FTA/FGA - 44% - #32
2 PT FG% - 56% - #48
Defense:
Efficiency: 99 - #67
Effective FG%: 49% - #144
3 PT FG%: 36% - #284
2 PT FG% 46% - #68
Florida is big (#22 in height); middle of the pack in bench minutes (#190) and experience (#117).
The roster:
Against Baylor, the Gators started:
6-2 Jr. Walter Clayton: Iona transfer; 2023 MAAC POY; leads the Gators in scoring (16 ppg) and assists (4 ppg); 36% from three; 28 points in the win over Pitt
6-4 5th yr. Zyon Pullin: UC Riverside transfer; three time all Big West Conf.; missed first three games; Florida has played like a top 20 team with Pullin the lineup; double figures in all three games;
6-4 Jr. Will Richard: Belmont transfer; 40% from deep last year; only 28% so far this year; 10 ppg;
6-5 So. Riley Kugel: All SEC frosh; three point threat (37% last year); started the season cold, but hit 4 of 6 against Baylor; 13 ppg; 4 rpg;
6-10 Sr. Tyrese Samuel: Seton Hall transfer; from Canada; WF pushed hard for Samuel in the portal; 15 ppg; 8 rpg; 18 and 6 against Baylor last time out
The bench:
6-5 So. Denzell Aberdeen: 4 ppg and 2 rpg
6-9 Fr. Thomas Haugh: top 100 recruit; 4 ppg and 4 rpg
6-10 Fr. Alex Condon: Aussie; three double figure games; 44% from three; 60% from 2; 9 ppg and 5 rpg
7-1 So. Micah Handlotgen; from NC; started every game for Marshall in 2023 10 rpg; opened the season with 14 and 16 point games; had a double/double against UVA; suffered an ankle injury against Pitt; DNP against Baylor
The projection:
KP: 81-77 UF (71 possessions)
Torvik: 80- 76 UF
If the game opens at the Gators -4, the early action will likely push it higher. Think the game will tip at around 5.5.
The skinny:
Florida (#28) is bigger, deeper, more experienced and better than WF (#81). The scary matchup is Florida's #16 offense against WF's #144 defense. With Pullin back, Florida is improving and if Handlotgen returns, this will be UF's first game with a full lineup. Yikes. looking at it another way, the Gators are better than the three teams WF has already lost to.
Even so, WF is at home. this is Florida's first true road game (Gators were 4-7 on the road last year). Also, the Deacs will have had 4 days off to recover from nagging injuries. Given the Gators up tempo style, would also look at the over, but Forbes has elected to play super-slow this year. WF's length of offensive possession last three seasons:
Also, given WF's depth concerns and young backcourt, would not make sense to try to run with a Florida team that will try to push pace. So, for WF to have a chance, the Deacs will need to limit possessions, and hope that UF continues to struggle from three. Florida is a play-on team for the season; can't recommend the Deacs. If WF pulls out a win, it will age well because Florida is good and getting better.
4-2 #28 Florida: Wednesday's game will be UF's 4th outing against an ACC team; the Gators lost 73-70 to # 42 UVA, and blew out #71 FSU (89-68) and #43 Pitt (86-71); last time out, the Gators lost a tight one to #11 Baylor (95-91). As evidenced from the high scores (only UVA has held UF to less than 89), the Gators have a high octane offense, and push pace (#17 in offensive possession length). The analytics:
Offense:
Efficiency: 117 - #16
Effective FG%: 54% - #79
O Reb% - 44% - #3
FTA/FGA - 44% - #32
2 PT FG% - 56% - #48
Defense:
Efficiency: 99 - #67
Effective FG%: 49% - #144
3 PT FG%: 36% - #284
2 PT FG% 46% - #68
Florida is big (#22 in height); middle of the pack in bench minutes (#190) and experience (#117).
The roster:
Against Baylor, the Gators started:
6-2 Jr. Walter Clayton: Iona transfer; 2023 MAAC POY; leads the Gators in scoring (16 ppg) and assists (4 ppg); 36% from three; 28 points in the win over Pitt
6-4 5th yr. Zyon Pullin: UC Riverside transfer; three time all Big West Conf.; missed first three games; Florida has played like a top 20 team with Pullin the lineup; double figures in all three games;
6-4 Jr. Will Richard: Belmont transfer; 40% from deep last year; only 28% so far this year; 10 ppg;
6-5 So. Riley Kugel: All SEC frosh; three point threat (37% last year); started the season cold, but hit 4 of 6 against Baylor; 13 ppg; 4 rpg;
6-10 Sr. Tyrese Samuel: Seton Hall transfer; from Canada; WF pushed hard for Samuel in the portal; 15 ppg; 8 rpg; 18 and 6 against Baylor last time out
The bench:
6-5 So. Denzell Aberdeen: 4 ppg and 2 rpg
6-9 Fr. Thomas Haugh: top 100 recruit; 4 ppg and 4 rpg
6-10 Fr. Alex Condon: Aussie; three double figure games; 44% from three; 60% from 2; 9 ppg and 5 rpg
7-1 So. Micah Handlotgen; from NC; started every game for Marshall in 2023 10 rpg; opened the season with 14 and 16 point games; had a double/double against UVA; suffered an ankle injury against Pitt; DNP against Baylor
The projection:
KP: 81-77 UF (71 possessions)
Torvik: 80- 76 UF
If the game opens at the Gators -4, the early action will likely push it higher. Think the game will tip at around 5.5.
The skinny:
Florida (#28) is bigger, deeper, more experienced and better than WF (#81). The scary matchup is Florida's #16 offense against WF's #144 defense. With Pullin back, Florida is improving and if Handlotgen returns, this will be UF's first game with a full lineup. Yikes. looking at it another way, the Gators are better than the three teams WF has already lost to.
Even so, WF is at home. this is Florida's first true road game (Gators were 4-7 on the road last year). Also, the Deacs will have had 4 days off to recover from nagging injuries. Given the Gators up tempo style, would also look at the over, but Forbes has elected to play super-slow this year. WF's length of offensive possession last three seasons:
- 2022: 16.5 seconds (#46)
- 2023: 17.3 (#132)
- 2024: 17.6 (#225)
Also, given WF's depth concerns and young backcourt, would not make sense to try to run with a Florida team that will try to push pace. So, for WF to have a chance, the Deacs will need to limit possessions, and hope that UF continues to struggle from three. Florida is a play-on team for the season; can't recommend the Deacs. If WF pulls out a win, it will age well because Florida is good and getting better.
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