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WF MBB: Post-Duke Win - KP/Torvik Update

Pilchard

Pilchard

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With an eleven day hoop hiatus, it's a good time to assess where WF is and where WF is projected to go.

After last night's 81-70 beatdown of Dook, WF sits at 9-4 (1-1) #81 in KP and #72 in Torvik. WF has 18 games left (all in conference).

The ACC Race

Of those 18 games, WF plays all 14 ACC teams at least once (including Clemson and Duke again). WF also plays the following teams twice:

  • UNC (#19)
  • Boston College (#174)
  • NC State (#51)
  • Notre Dame (#101)
KP projects WF to finish 9-11 (tied for 8th) in the ACC.

Torvik projects WF to finish 10-10 (9th in the ACC)

FWIW, Pitt already has two road ACC wins (@ NC State and @ Cuse) and both KP and Torvik now project Pitt to finish 12-8 in the ACC. Torvik picks VT to finish first in the ACC regular season at 15-5. KP picks VT and UVA to tie for first at 14-6.

WF Roster Performance

"O" Ratings for WF players (100 is roughly average):

  • Marsh: 138 (he hasn't played enough minutes to qualify to be nationally rated - 40% of his team's minutes; the national O Rating leader is Purdue's Zach Edey at 128)
  • Appleby: 119
  • Monsanto: 105
  • Klintman: 105
  • Carr: 103
  • Hildreth: 103
  • Williamson: 98
  • Bradford: 96
  • Keller: 85
  • Taylor: 77
  • Ituka: 75
Appleby is among the top 100 in the nation in:

  • True Shooting %
  • Assist Rate
  • Fouls Drawn per 40 minutes
  • FT%
Monsanto is #36 in percentage of shots taken when on the floor (he takes 32% of the shots when he is in the game)

Team Analytics

On offense, WF is

#64 (in the nation) on offense (108 adjusted offensive efficiency)
#50 in 2 PT% (54%)
#50 in FT% (75%)
#60 in effective FG% (54%)
#102 in 3 PT% (35%)
#207 in TO% (19% of offensive possessions result in a TO)
#262 in offensive rebound rate

On defense, WF is

#100 on defense (99 adjusted defensive efficiency)
#47 in preventing defensive boards
#148 in forcing TOs (19%)
#153 in 3 PT% D (33%)
#189 in defensive effective FG% (50%)
#223 in 2 PT% D (51%)
 
How many of those 18 do we have to win in order to dance, 11-12? Last night was encouraging.
 
With the LSU and LMU losses, 12 wins (11-7) the rest of the way would be the minimum, but WF would probably need to have at least 13 ACC wins (which didn't get WF in last year). Also, it will depend on who WF beats. Would be great for WF to rack up several quad 1 wins, like WF next two opponents: VT and @UNC.
 
cville deac said:
How many of those 18 do we have to win in order to dance, 11-12? Last night was encouraging.
Click to expand...
Will be interesting to see which team shows for the next game. We seem to be either a contender or absolutely get throttled. Hopefully Forbes has identified some things.
 
The Biffermeister said:
Sounds like we're screwed.
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What? We saw last year that the committee cares more about who you beat than how many wins you have or who you lost to. As crazy as it sounds, we're arguably in a better place this year than we were this time last year to make the tournament, because we already have two Quad 1 wins, which we had just one of last year. If we win one of our next two games (vs VT, @UNC), we will already have 3 Quad 1 wins. If we finish at 20-11 (12-8) with 4 Q1 wins that would likely have us right on the bubble if not in the tourney. That is doable.

Remaining likely Q1 opportunities:

vs VT
@ UNC
vs UVA
@ Pitt
@ Duke
vs UNC
@ Miami
@ State

I absolutely think we can get 2 wins out of that bunch. I think 3 or 4 is realistic.
 
Harpua said:
Lot of negative talk being 1-1 in ACC having just beaten Duke.
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Yes. We are 1-1. However the team on the losing side of the ledger is NOT the same team that played last night and is on the winning side. I think that criticism is justified until we have further data. Again, maybe the team is coming together and will start a memorable run. I'm not saying it can't. But, we are very much a Jekyll and Hyde at the moment. Maybe Forbes has figured some things out. I hope so!
 
Team played like a young team that had key upper class leaders injured and not 100% in losses. If those guys get healthier during this break, this Wake team can get at least 3 and possibly as many as 6 Quad 1 wins by season end.
 
Marsh has 182 minutes in 13 games. 40% of minutes at this point would be 13 x 40 x .40 = 208. He’s averaging 24 min over the last four games. At that pace, he should be at 40% of minutes in four games. If he plays 25 mins, he’ll be there in three.
 
Based off of watching the bubble and the selection show last year, here is an unscientific breakdown of what it seems like / they say they use in evaluating bubble resumes:

1. Quad system / quality wins. An 18-14 team with 7 Q1 wins will get in over a 22-10 team with 2 Q1 wins.
2. How are you trending at the end of the year
3. NET ranking
4. Q3/Q4 losses

I have little doubt that last year's team was better than this year's team, but I also have little doubt that given the order of these 4 factors, this year's team has a better chance to make the tournament.
 
NJDeac’22 said:
Based off of watching the bubble and the selection show last year, here is an unscientific breakdown of what it seems like / they say they use in evaluating bubble resumes:

1. Quad system / quality wins. An 18-14 team with 7 Q1 wins will get in over a 22-10 team with 2 Q1 wins.
2. How are you trending at the end of the year
3. NET ranking
4. Q3/Q4 losses

I have little doubt that last year's team was better than this year's team, but I also have little doubt that given the order of these 4 factors, this year's team has a better chance to make the tournament.
Click to expand...
I do not agree that last year’s team was better than this year. This year’s team is much more balanced which creates a better overall team. Last year was basically Alondes, Jake, and everyone else.
 
deacdixieboy said:
I do not agree that last year’s team was better than this year. This year’s team is much more balanced which creates a better overall team. Last year was basically Alondes, Jake, and everyone else.
Click to expand...
We'll see. After Wisconsin I said the same thing, and theoretically going into the year expected us to be a ton more balanced. However, so far we've had so little from Monsanto who was the X factor for me, and Carr had been disappointing for a long stretch of games leaving us with nothing from the 3/4. If Damari keeps playing like he did the last two games, Carr plays like he did last night and against App, and Marsh keeping improving, you might be 100% right.

Also, for argument's sake I think Dallas was great last year and Zay was better last year than Monsanto this year in similar roles. It wasn't always just Alondes and Jake.
 
Torvik has WF at 2.7% to win the ACC and 11.4% to get an NCAA tournament bid. Those odds are about double what they were before the Duke win (and about where they were before we lost to Clemson and Rutgers). His current view of the ACC:

National RankTeamWin ACCNCAA Bid
12​
Duke22.1%99.7%
13​
Virginia Tech22.3%99.6%
23​
Virginia17.2%99.5%
31​
North Carolina11.4%92.0%
32​
North Carolina St.10.6%75.7%
59​
Miami FL6.0%79.0%
68​
Pittsburgh3.5%20.3%
72​
Wake Forest2.7%11.4%
75​
Clemson2.6%7.1%
94​
Georgia Tech1.0%1.0%
114​
Notre Dame0.3%0.3%
128​
Syracuse0.3%0.3%
187​
Florida St.0.1%0.1%
221​
Boston College0.0%0.0%
305​
Louisville0.0%0.0%
 
NJDeac’22 said:
We'll see. After Wisconsin I said the same thing, and theoretically going into the year expected us to be a ton more balanced. However, so far we've had so little from Monsanto who was the X factor for me, and Carr had been disappointing for a long stretch of games leaving us with nothing from the 3/4. If Damari keeps playing like he did the last two games, Carr plays like he did last night and against App, and Marsh keeping improving, you might be 100% right.

Also, for argument's sake I think Dallas was great last year and Zay was better last year than Monsanto this year in similar roles. It wasn't always just Alondes and Jake.
Click to expand...

We have seen outstanding games from Appleby, Hildreth and Carr. Williamson has been not 100% most of the season and is playing like it. He is capable of lighting up a scoreboard when healthy.

Monsanto also has yet to have a great game. If the last two games are indications that he is dedicated to playing team basketball, I expect some 30 point games from him.

At some point, Wake will play a team that has limited capability to guard Marsh and he will get 10+ dunks.

When Wake is healthy and the guys are playing well and in team concept, Wake is a tough out. There are lots of different ways for Wake to win.
 
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