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WF MBB: Post-Duke Win - KP/Torvik Update

Deaconblue said:
We have seen outstanding games from Appleby, Hildreth and Carr. Williamson has been not 100% most of the season and is playing like it. He is capable of lighting up a scoreboard when healthy.

Monsanto also has yet to have a great game. If the last two games are indications that he is dedicated to playing team basketball, I expect some 30 point games from him.

At some point, Wake will play a team that has limited capability to guard Marsh and he will get 10+ dunks.

When Wake is healthy and the guys are playing well and in team concept, Wake is a tough out. There are lots of different ways for Wake to win.
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There are also ways for us to lose with Marsh missing free throws and getting beat by quicker bigs, Monsanto throwing up bad shots, and Daivien being unable to handle the press. This team seems to have both a high ceiling and the capacity to lay eggs. Lost in this age of pay for play and transfers and one and dones people forget that you typically improve over the course of the year and play your best ball in February, and I think/hope we will see that with this team and succeed in the ways you laid out.
 
Maybe I'm a Negative Nancy but I kinda think we see what this team is at this point. There will be games where the defensive effort is there for most of the game and we hit shots, which will snag us some wins against quality opponents. We will also have games where we can't even get shots off or just get torched from outside because we sag on off-ball defense. Let's hope this improves and the team continues to become more cohesive (Wisconsin and Duke are excellent signs) but I'm about where I stood at the beginning of the year: worse than last year, not an NCAA tournament team, NIT bound. We have opportunities to make the tournament as we're just getting into ACC play but I think that will require 21 wins (so 12 more). Let's get it done.
 
The one thing we can say for sure, at least we can enjoy the next 10+ days and not be beating ourselves up over the team.

It seems we've has two great wins (Wisc, dook) and 4 head scratching losses, LMU, Clemson, LSU and Rutgers (App was a win but certainly a WTH game). There is a lot of work to be done.

My view is cautious optimism.

Also, on the ACCT - win a few games there and you likely can get 1-2 Q1 wins.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Maybe I'm a Negative Nancy but I kinda think we see what this team is at this point. There will be games where the defensive effort is there for most of the game and we hit shots, which will snag us some wins against quality opponents. We will also have games where we can't even get shots off or just get torched from outside because we sag on off-ball defense. Let's hope this improves and the team continues to become more cohesive (Wisconsin and Duke are excellent signs) but I'm about where I stood at the beginning of the year: worse than last year, not an NCAA tournament team, NIT bound. We have opportunities to make the tournament as we're just getting into ACC play but I think that will require 21 wins (so 12 more). Let's get it done.
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I agree with this take. Feels like we've seen the range in the last 3 weeks. We've seen a gritty road win, two horrible road losses, giving up a big lead on a neutral court, an underwhelming home win against a mid-major, and now a home win over a ranked team in which we held a 3 possession lead most of the game. If we beat VT and @UNC and take care of business against two of the worst teams in the league in Louisville and FSU, then we can talk about NCAA Tournament prospects at 13-4 with four Q1 wins.
 
Deac83 said:
The one thing we can say for sure, at least we can enjoy the next 10+ days and not be beating ourselves up over the team.

It seems we've has two great wins (Wisc, dook) and 4 head scratching losses, LMU, Clemson, LSU and Rutgers (App was a win but certainly a WTH game). There is a lot of work to be done.

My view is cautious optimism.

Also, on the ACCT - win a few games there and you likely can get 1-2 Q1 wins.
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I’m not sure Rutgers is a head-scratching loss. That’s a pretty good team on the road. A loss is a loss whether it’s by 1 or by 101. Same with a win.
 
The good news on the individual front: of eligible players, Tyree is the top rated Torvik player in the ACC (just above Wong).

The bad news on the individual front: Cam is the second best player and he's just 37th. Nobody else is in the top 50.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
The good news on the individual front: of eligible players, Tyree is the top rated Torvik player in the ACC (just above Wong).

The bad news on the individual front: Cam is the second best player and he's just 37th. Nobody else is in the top 50.
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Marsh would be #35 if he was eligible. Four players are between #51-75. That's not too bad. The entire rotation is top 80 or so in a 15 team conference.

Interestingly, State has three players in the Top 10.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
The good news on the individual front: of eligible players, Tyree is the top rated Torvik player in the ACC (just above Wong).

The bad news on the individual front: Cam is the second best player and he's just 37th. Nobody else is in the top 50.
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Obviously different rating systems, but there are two players in both Torvik's ACC top 5 and KP's ACC top 5:

Isaiah Wong and Sean Pedulla

Filipowski is KP's #1 all-KP ACC player, and Torvik rates him #26 in the ACC
 
Last year's team would beat this year 4-0 or 4-1 in a 7 game series. If we had mucius, sy and Walton on this edition instead of bradford klintman, and keller, we'd be better. But we don't, and those three were massive for us last year.

Doesn't really mean anything though, I hope this team goes out and wins 13 acc games, bc with a few more quad 1 wins we'd be in. But thats a tough road to hoe.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Last year’s team would be like -6 or -7 at this point
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I don't think we would have a defensive answer for Jake. Appleby might contain Alondes or at least give him problems due to similar speed. But I see Jake being the 6-7 point difference you reference.
 
You can certainly argue that last year’s team was more talented and likely Jake and Alondes would be the best two players on the court (depending on the day for Ty and Alondes). But it’s hard for me to say that team was better when we are headed for basically the same season: some really strong wins, some truly baffling losses and an NIT berth. Last year’s team had the opportunity to be much better but didn’t capitalize.
 
its a tough "row to hoe" because you hoe the row, don't you know, ho, ho, ho

MichDeac25 said:
How would Marsh guard himself?!
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think Forbes kinda covered that when he muttered under his breath that Cam and Marsh were wankers in the postgame
 
My biggest worry is the lack of current playable options. One injury and we are currently in trouble.

We really have a 6 man rotation that we can trust at this level:
Appleby
Hildreth
Carr
Monsanto
Marsh
Williamson

One of the 6, Marsh, played a career high 27 minutes last night. He’s hit 20 minutes 6 times. I expect he will hit that number a lot, but I suspect he can’t play close to 40.

Williamson still doesn’t look right. He’s limited in what he does but also good enough to play a lot when healthy. He doesn’t look healthy now.

Klintman is the one that could change our trajectory if he can get ‘above the line’. I keep hoping sees things click, but he doesn’t look super close yet.

The case for him to be in the rotation at all is that a) he’s playing better than Ituka/Keller/Bradford/Taylor; b) he’s 4th in O-rating behind Marsh, Appleby, and Monsanto( really low usage); really only takes good shots, makes his FT — that’s about it.
c) besides Monsanto he’s the only guy with length and the quickness to guard wings;
D) among players that have played 25% or more of our minutes, he’s 1st in O-Reb rate and block rate, 3rd in steals.

That’s about it. For now, we should be hoping to steal 10 minutes with him rather than the 19 he’s averaged to date, and we saw a little of that tightening rotation last night.
 
I understand the skepticism about winning 12-13 games in the ACC, but when you look at the schedule, it isn't crazy.

The only games where we are sub-20% are: @UNC and @Duke.

@Miami also a tall order (25%).

Unlikely: @NCSU (26%), vs UVA (31%),

Reasonable: @Pitt (33%), vs. UNC (35%), vs VT (38%), @Cuse (39%)

Toss-Up: @ND (45%), vs NCSU (48%), vs. Clemson (55%)

Let's assume we win the others: @Louisville (76%), vs FSU (79%), @BC (63%), vs GT (70%), vs ND (68%), vs BC (82%) - That's 6 wins + Duke = 7 wins.

If you say we win 4 of 7 of the reasonable/toss-ups, that's 11 ACC wins.

I think that is reasonable because I think we're a little better than our current KP (and will improve)... I also don't know if I think UNC, Pitt, & NCSU are as good as their current KPs.

Basically saying there are a lot of games left to be played... Winning 1 of the next 2 to finish this brutal 8 game stretch at 4-4 would be pretty good (you just have to forget about the LSU collapse, the ugly App St game, and how bad Rutgers whupped us).
 
Injuries hurt every team. There’s not enough talent in the college game for a lot of teams to have depth.

I’m not too worried about the main rotation. Here are the main issues.

1. We just need to steal 2-4 minutes without Appleby. That should be up to Cam and Daivien.

2. We need Marsh to play 30 minutes. Those other 10 minutes need to be Bradford/Kelller or Klintman with Carr in the post.

The rest of the minutes work themselves out.
 
Hopefully the time off comes at a great time for Daivien to get back to full strength.
 
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