WFU @ Louisville – Sat 10/29 – 3:30 ACCN

[Turd Ferguson]

Yeah I mean Wake is more likely overall to end the season 9-3 than 11-1. We have the BC game and then five games where the spread will be single digits (Wake probably favored in all five at this point).

This. Before the season I was thinking 8-4 or 9-3. Where we are now I think 10-2 is a strong possibility and that's playing really well. 11-1 would mean we were way more clutch than I'm willing to imagine at this point.

I think we are a good team, top-tier ACC (for whatever that's worth) but I'm not sure we are quite to the point that we win out. Playing at state is always tough, Louisville will challenge our defense, not to mention all-everything Maye. Just hard to think we don't play a less-than-perfect game out of the last 6.

 

[Turd Ferguson]

I went back and watched the two failed offensive drives in the second half of FSU, and it's kind of interesting to consider whether or not that was normal or conservative playcalling.

Drive 1 (score 28-13, 7:03 in 3rd Quarter):
1st down: RPO run. 4 DL and 2 LBs in the box, play goes for 4 yards.
2nd down: No RPO, drop back to pass out of shotgun. Sam gets sacked with only 5 guys pass rushing.
3rd down: No RPO, drop back to pass out of shotgun. Sam gets sacked with only 5 guys pass rushing.

There's not really a legit argument that we went conservative with playcalling on this drive, this is FSU defense just winning a possession.

Drive 2 (score 28-13, 0:37 left in 3rd Quarter)
1st down: RPO run for no gain.
2nd down: No RPO, pass over the middle to AT for 6 yards
3rd down: No RPO, pass over the middle to Bull for first down
1st down: RPO in which the pass option is a screen to Morin. Sam keeps it for a one yard loss.
2nd down: RPO in which Sam gives the ball to Ellison in a 7 man box. Run goes for no gain.
3rd down: No RPO, drop back to pass out of shotgun. Sam gets sacked by the LB that was probably covering the blocking RB, only a 5 man pass rush.

You could argue that the 1st and 2nd down play calls/RPO decision making by Sam was pretty conservative, and it certainly didn't work. Considering we never did anything to stop the clock, and it was now early 4th quarter, you could make an assumption that was on Clawson's mind. But we also didn't really slow down the tempo that we normally operate at, although as I recall Clawson doesn't do that even when it's clear that playcalling is more conservative than normal.

The last drive (that I didn't review here) certainly affects our yards/play and explosive play rate numbers, as it was a grind it out/ run the clock type of drive, but it also won us the game and I'd imagine other teams would do something similar with a 7 point lead in mid 4th quarter.

It always feels conservative because a defense is almost always going to try and stop the run first rather than let us run the clock out, so they stack the box or cheat in. Either Sam misses the reads or we are playing conservative running against a run defense. At least that's what it always feels like. I haven't studied the film, but I always feel like the defense is ready to stop the run (which you pretty much have to) and we run right into first and second downs.

 

[Haros]

Yeah I mean that's just basic win expectancy. Converting a rough estimate of projected lines into implied odds:

Boston College: 98% (rounded down from Boyd's bets which has >20 point spread at 100%)
Louisville: 62%
State: 51% (this is probably a little low - I'd have it 55%-60% with Leary out)
UNC: 73%
Cuse: 66%
Duke: 75%

So expected record based on these would be 9.25-2.75 (4.25 expected wins of 6 games)

Not only are we more likely to finish 9-3 than 11-1, but we are more likely to finish 8-4 than 11-1 as well. With the above win odds:

11-1: 9.5%
10-2: 29.5%
9-3: 34.4%
8-4: 16.2%
7-5: 5.9%
6-6: 4.4%
5-7: 0.0%

 

[PhDeac]

But I don’t think this team needs to be “perfect” to win the next 6. They weren’t perfect against Clemson and it took some superhuman plays by DJU and Shipley to win that game.

The big question is if this team can take UNC and Cuse’s best shots. If Maye/Downs, Schaeder/Tucker/Gadsen are on a roll, can the defense get stops? Can the offense score every possession? Thankfully we’ve been through those games on the road recently so we know what hasn’t worked.

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

well it feels like we go conservative so there

 

[deacon14]

It always feels conservative because a defense is almost always going to try and stop the run first rather than let us run the clock out, so they stack the box or cheat in. Either Sam misses the reads or we are playing conservative running against a run defense. At least that's what it always feels like. I haven't studied the film, but I always feel like the defense is ready to stop the run (which you pretty much have to) and we run right into first and second downs.

I obviously don't know exactly what Sam is reading when he makes the decision to hand the ball off in the RPO, although I'm sure it's more complex than counting defenders that are in the box.

Regardless, there were multiple RPO run plays in that film I just watched in which Sam handed the ball off and the RB just had no chance to go anywhere. So a big part of me wonders if Sam/our QBs are taught different reads that skew the decision towards handing the ball off on certain drives in which we have a lead/want to play a bit more conservatively.

 

[BeachBumDeac]

I think Clawson teams play better than percentages indicate. He has a great record in one possession games, right? Feel like the maturity and chemistry on the team means we don't make as many stupid mistakes as other teams and execute better when it's close.

the #numbers might contradict me though.

 

[BarcaDeac]

I think Clawson teams play better than percentages indicate. He has a great record in one possession games, right? Feel like the maturity and chemistry on the team means we don't make as many stupid mistakes as other teams and execute better when it's close.

the #numbers might contradict me though.

I could be wrong, but think our last turnover was in the Liberty game

 

[LilburnDeac]

For context, Wake has only won more than 8 games 3 times ever. 2006, 2007, 2021. And we have won exactly 8 games 6 times 1944, 1979, 1992, 2008, 2017, 2019.

This season 8 wins would be a disappointment. Like it was in 2019.

 

[liveanddiedeac]

For context, Wake has only won more than 8 games 3 times ever. 2006, 2007, 2021. And we have won exactly 8 games 6 times 1944, 1979, 1992, 2008, 2017, 2019.

This season 8 wins would be a disappointment. Like it was in 2019.

Yes it would and I that say as someone that well remembers when winning 8 games in one season seemed like a pipe dream. It wouldn't be sky is falling bad, but it would definitely be disappointing.

 

[deacon14]

For context, Wake has only won more than 8 games 3 times ever. 2006, 2007, 2021. And we have won exactly 8 games 6 times 1944, 1979, 1992, 2008, 2017, 2019.

This season 8 wins would be a disappointment. Like it was in 2019.

As a relatively recent Wake grad, stats like these blow my mind. I'm aware of the futility of Wake football history, but don't really spend much time thinking about it.

This made me look at Wake wins by season, and what the hell was happening from 2009-2013? 5 straight losing seasons and only one bowl game? I know Clawson has a very long leash right now (deservedly), but I can't imagine he's still around if we rattle off 5, 3, 6, 5, and 4 win seasons from 2023-2028. And after this season Clawson will have (likely) made 7 straight bowl games, while Grobe only went to 5 bowls over 13 years so you'd think Clawson's leash would be the longer one. I guess the ACC Championship is a large difference, but still.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

It seemed to me like there was a recruiting drop off where we weren't getting out there as a staff as hard as we could/should have following up the success from 2006-2008. That's just an outsider perspective though (albeit a time period where I was on campus, covering the team, and writing for BSD) so I'm open to other interpretations of that period.

 

[IAppreciateIt]

I obviously don't know exactly what Sam is reading when he makes the decision to hand the ball off in the RPO, although I'm sure it's more complex than counting defenders that are in the box.

Regardless, there were multiple RPO run plays in that film I just watched in which Sam handed the ball off and the RB just had no chance to go anywhere. So a big part of me wonders if Sam/our QBs are taught different reads that skew the decision towards handing the ball off on certain drives in which we have a lead/want to play a bit more conservatively.

It's possible, but it doesn't make sense to me that we would call plays conservatively yet play at the same fast tempo as always.

 

[liveanddiedeac]

As a relatively recent Wake grad, stats like these blow my mind. I'm aware of the futility of Wake football history, but don't really spend much time thinking about it.

This made me look at Wake wins by season, and what the hell was happening from 2009-2013? 5 straight losing seasons and only one bowl game? I know Clawson has a very long leash right now (deservedly), but I can't imagine he's still around if we rattle off 5, 3, 6, 5, and 4 win seasons from 2023-2028. And after this season Clawson will have (likely) made 7 straight bowl games, while Grobe only went to 5 bowls over 13 years so you'd think Clawson's leash would be the longer one. I guess the ACC Championship is a large difference, but still.

Grobe who an ACC title in 2006 and then won 9 games and 8 games in 07 and 08. That was a truly incredible run at Wake Forest at the time and honestly that was before many of the facility upgrades and a lot of our facilities were crap. Grobe got burned out, lazy, whatever you want to call it and I understand you're not old enough to appreciate it, but Jim Grobe deserves tons of credit for what he did here. Clawson has mentioned more than once that Grobe showed you could win conference titles here and that changed the perception and made it a much more attractive job for Clawson. Also remember prior to Grobe, we had only been to 2 bowls since the 1940's, chew on that.

 

[liveanddiedeac]

It seemed to me like there was a recruiting drop off where we weren't getting out there as a staff as hard as we could/should have following up the success from 2006-2008. That's just an outsider perspective though (albeit a time period where I was on campus, covering the team, and writing for BSD) so I'm open to other interpretations of that period.

I think that is definitely part of it. I've also heard that Grobe didn't think the school was committed to taking advantage of the 06-08 run as it should've been. We got some good upgrades at the stadium, but we didn't get the on-campus facility upgrades we needed until Clawson. An argument can be made that the on-campus upgrades were more important than the stadium upgrades as the players are really only using the stadium at most 10 times a year, whereas on-campus facilities are used practically on a daily basis.

 

[deacon14]

It's possible, but it doesn't make sense to me that we would call plays conservatively yet play at the same fast tempo as always.

I mostly agree with this, but at the same time playing conservatively doesn't just mean running clock. Limiting turnovers is also a huge factor, and Sam throwing the ball deep is going to lead to way more turnovers than running it up the middle (particularly considering our RBs relatively low fumble rates).

 

[SCDeac]

Grobe who an ACC title in 2006 and then won 9 games and 8 games in 07 and 08. That was a truly incredible run at Wake Forest at the time and honestly that was before many of the facility upgrades and a lot of our facilities were crap. Grobe got burned out, lazy, whatever you want to call it and I understand you're not old enough to appreciate it, but Jim Grobe deserves tons of credit for what he did here. Clawson has mentioned more than once that Grobe showed you could win conference titles here and that changed the perception and made it a much more attractive job for Clawson. Also remember prior to Grobe, we had only been to 2 bowls since the 1940's, chew on that.

Three bowls (1979, 1992, 1999), but point well made.

 

[liveanddiedeac]

Three bowls (1979, 1992, 1999), but point well made.

Yep, my bad. How could I forget that????? Making any bowl those days was a huge freaking deal for us. I remember running around my driveway I was so excited when we upset Ga. Tech to get bowl eligible in 1999.

 

[deacon14]

Grobe who an ACC title in 2006 and then won 9 games and 8 games in 07 and 08. That was a truly incredible run at Wake Forest at the time and honestly that was before many of the facility upgrades and a lot of our facilities were crap. Grobe got burned out, lazy, whatever you want to call it and I understand you're not old enough to appreciate it, but Jim Grobe deserves tons of credit for what he did here. Clawson has mentioned more than once that Grobe showed you could win conference titles here and that changed the perception and made it a much more attractive job for Clawson. Also remember prior to Grobe, we had only been to 2 bowls since the 1940's, chew on that.

Yeah, the facilities argument is a fair one, I didn't intend to place the blame solely on Grobe for those years.

But as a fan, I'd be hugely disappointed for Wake to return to its historical levels in the next 5 years, and I would be fine with moving on from Clawson were that to occur. So I'd imagine fans felt the same way in the early 2010s, particularly fans that didn't have memories of Wake football from the 80s and 90s.

 

[tigerswood]

Grobe's nepotism/devotion to proven shitty coaches was also obviously a major issue, as well as recruiting. The '07-'08 teams were legitimate top 10-15 teams in the country, but got Lobo'd.

We would have beaten BC in '07 if Riley doesn't get injured (up 14 at the time, I believe), and had no business losing to Nebraska (Lobo, 2 brutal Hodges INTs, missed PI calls final drive) or UVA (Lobo, absurdly conservative play calling, settling for long last second Swank missed FG).

'08 might have been even worse with the Lobo/Skinner 4 (or 5?) INT game vs. Navy, the inexplicable 8 pass attempt close loss @ Miami, Lobo + Marshall Williams brutal dropped TD to lose by 4 @State, and Lobo + brutal 3 point loss at home to 2nd string BC QB in the last minute.

And then in '09 the only teams that handled us were Clemson/FSU. The other 4 losses were in OT @ BC, ridiculous rain game @Navy, and blown 4th quarter leads vs. Miami and GT.