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Will we defeat Dayton?

Will Wake beat Dayton?

  • Yes

    Votes: 79 59.4%

  • No

    Votes: 54 40.6%
  • Total voters
    133
  • Poll closed .
Ranked 65th in KenPom, so ahead of teams like Georgia, GT, Washington State, and right behind Oregon and NCSU. It will be a good test for us.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Ranked 65th in KenPom, so ahead of teams like Georgia, GT, Washington State, and right behind Oregon and NCSU. It will be a good test for us.
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27, I'm not very familiar with KenPom - is there any reason to believe that those numbers/rankings would be a bit inflated at the beginning of the season, given that there is less data to work with for each team?
 
There is every reason to think that, WFUtoUSC. Those numbers are next to meaningless just a couple weeks into the season. It is ruthlessly absurd to even try to pretend they mean anything right now after just a handful of games for each team, IMO.
 
deacvision7 said:
There is every reason to think that, WFUtoUSC. Those numbers are next to meaningless just a couple weeks into the season. It is ruthlessly absurd to even try to pretend they mean anything right now after just a handful of games for each team, IMO.
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Agreed. And Dayton's resume thus far isn't terribly impressive (they have played no one and still lost a game).
 
deacvision7 said:
There is every reason to think that, WFUtoUSC. Those numbers are next to meaningless just a couple weeks into the season. It is ruthlessly absurd to even try to pretend they mean anything right now after just a handful of games for each team, IMO.
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OK, thanks. Like I said, I'm not very familiar with KenPom, but I assumed that like all pieces of data, more is better
 
I'll tell you guys what, pick 5 teams that will either exceed or fall short of their projected KenPom season total by 3 games and if you can even get 3 of the 5 you pick right you win. If you don't get it right, you all stop talking about KenPom being meaningless even this early in the year.

I'll throw a team out there to start with: Clemson. Most on here appears to think they're mediocre at best and probably awful, I'll say they win 17 or 18 games.
 
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WFUtoUSC said:
OK, thanks. Like I said, I'm not very familiar with KenPom, but I assumed that like all pieces of data, more is better
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My understanding is that at the beginning of the season it's a projection and then as the season starts weight is put on the actual results. As the season progresses more and more weight is put on results until they are the only component.
 
Also I wish people would read what KenPom does to calculate his preseason projections because it's by far the best system out there. My point is if he says Dayton is 64th overall right now and you all are saying they probably aren't that good based off of three games that you've watched 0 minutes of, I'll trust KenPom's assessment over wishful thinking that his numbers are worthless.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I'll tell you guys what, pick 5 teams that will either exceed or fall short of their projected KenPom season total by 3 games and if you can even get 3 of the 5 you pick right you win. If you don't get it right, you all stop talking about KenPom being meaningless even this early in the year.

I'll throw a team out there to start with: Clemson. Most on here appears to think they're mediocre at best and probably awful, I'll say they win 17 or 18 games.
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If I had a subscription I'd be all over that.
 
Yeah and you guys would even have the advantage because the win projections are just straight up expected win probability IIRC rather than adding up individual wins and losses.

For example BC is only projected to win 2 of their remaining games but their expected probability gives them 6 at the end of the year.

As a side note BC's defense is not only bad, it's horrific, it's 90 spots worse than any other "BCS" team from what I saw after a quick glance
 
I know people want Wake to be better than Dayton and so do I, but the fact of the matter is if we win this game it's an upset and I would pretty confidently say that Dayton ends the season in the top 75 of KenPom's ranking.
 
numbers, do you work for KenPom or something? Quite the impassioned defense of the website there...
 
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/tracking-kenpom-round-2
Calculating the probable winners in this fashion gave a win/loss of 24/8. And, four of those that are wrong were predicted to be 3 point games, and ended up +/- 3. Here's the corresponding chart.
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Conclusion:
If you can draw any conclusion from all this, it is that Ken is pretty accurate, except when he's not. I didn't expect to be 100%, because I don't think any system out there will predict Georgetown, or Kansas or Villanova to lose, based on the numbers. But, by this point in the season, the system is remarkably accurate in predicting probable outcomes. It has some margin for error in predicted close games, but I don't think there's any system that would be able to predict close games, either. They just come down to the luck of the draw.
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deacvision7 said:
numbers, do you work for KenPom or something? Quite the impassioned defense of the website there...
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I was just responding to you saying the numbers are almost meaningless when I think they're actually pretty accurate. Even if there's a margin of error for 20 spots either direction, Wake would still only be around 35 or 40% to win the game.
 
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