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Year 11 of the Lobo Era - 3 shut outs in the last 19 games (keeps getting worse)

I'm doing some research now on points per game that we've scored since 2003 (I won't be including the 2013 season). I'll show what the teams we played gave up and i'll also subtract defensive/special teams scores.
 
PhDeac said:
The next two weeks will tell us a lot about the defense, but we know enough about the offense to know major changes must be made at the top.
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Yeah, the schedule is weird this year. We have a pretty easy schedule top to bottom, minus the three or four games against top 40 opponents that most teams have a season. It will be until the 8th or 9th game of the year that the stats start to normalize out for the defense. The offense on the other hand has played a ridiculously easy slate of defenses and is in the bottom 20. Good job, good effort Lobo.
 
CumberlandDeac said:
I'm doing some research now on points per game that we've scored since 2003 (I won't be including the 2013 season). I'll show what the teams we played gave up and i'll also subtract defensive/special teams scores.
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PM me your e-mail and I can give that to you later this afternoon in an Excel spreadsheet. I've posted that stuff before, maybe since we moved to this board. Mostly fell on deaf ears though.
 
Stats aren't telling the whole story on the defense, especially with the hugely lopsided stats of the Presby game. I've maintained that our defense looks "good" in comparison to our offense, but it too will prove very weak. We've played 3 of the 4 weakest teams on our schedule and save for Presby, our defense has trouble getting itself off the field. Of course being on the field for 40 minutes a game will hurt, but we're unable to get off the field early in the game. Even with multiple third and longs. Kudos are due for finding some way to hold down the score so far, but believe me, the dam will burst and when it does it'll be downhill the rest of the way. The team is lacking in size and talent, and this will become more pronounced with the advent of our ACC schedule.
 
Lohengrin said:
Stats aren't telling the whole story on the defense, especially with the hugely lopsided stats of the Presby game. I've maintained that our defense looks "good" in comparison to our offense, but it too will prove very weak. We've played 3 of the 4 weakest teams on our schedule and save for Presby, our defense has trouble getting itself off the field. Of course being on the field for 40 minutes a game will hurt, but we're unable to get off the field early in the game. Even with multiple third and longs. Kudos are due for finding some way to hold down the score so far, but believe me, the dam will burst and when it does it'll be downhill the rest of the way. The team is lacking in size and talent, and this will become more pronounced with the advent of our ACC schedule.
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The defense is not lacking in talent, but is lacking slightly in size. Personnel-wise, this is one of the better defenses Wake Forest has ever had. I already took the stats out for the Presbyterian game and Wake is still in the top half in the country in every major statistical defensive category. As I said we will see what happens when we play better teams, but the defense has done a pretty good job with what they've been given: 1) bad defensive play calls where we run a zone with guys eight to ten yards off the line and 2) a bad offense which has the defense on the field an incredibly large amount of time.

I agree the first drive of the game for ULM was frustrating, but those long drives will occur and the guys made adjustments and made plays to get the ball back in the hands of the offense. There was a lot of pressure on Browning on a good number of plays and we were able to get in there at times with only three or four guys rushing. The problems were, and will continue to be, that we're dropped back into a conservative zone where we're not challenging any receivers.

The defense is going to end up giving up more than 22.5 points a game against FBS teams, but I fully expect the defense to finish the year in the top 50 in the country in total defense and scoring defense. We have a pretty talented defensive team which makes the fact that the offense is so terrible even more apparent. The defense doesn't just look "good in comparison to our offense," the defense looks good compared to the rest of the country at this stage of the season. Don't let your disdain for the coaching staff to get in the way of the fact that we have a pretty good defense.
 
CumberlandDeac said:
I'm doing some research now on points per game that we've scored since 2003 (I won't be including the 2013 season). I'll show what the teams we played gave up and i'll also subtract defensive/special teams scores.
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If there's anyway for this to be done for every team in the country (via a website or some kind of excel worksheet), it would be an amazing resource in general. With just Wake's stats it's a good thing to have, but with every team included for context it will be awesome. Plus it's going to be ridiculously damning of Lobo, not that anymore evidence is needed against him.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
The defense is not lacking in talent, but is lacking slightly in size. Personnel-wise, this is one of the better defenses Wake Forest has ever had. <snip>
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Not sure how you define "talent". Our guys were missing tackles right and left against BC and ULM. Plus, we just don't recruit well enough to have "talent" in the ACC sense of the word. We have veteran players who should be playing better, but I can't see a top 50 defense out of them. We'll see how it pans out. I think you're going to be retracting these posts in the near future.
 
The defense would probably be a little better than decent if the offense helped the defense out with points and time of possession. I know we won time of possession against BC, but that was misleading because we held the ball 9 out of the first 11 minutes of the game because we had 2 turnovers and BC scored quick TD's off of them and we did have our only really good drive of the game in the first quarter. The defense was on the field for almost 39 minutes against ULM. Granted part of that was on the defense for not being able to get off the field on 3rd down, but a lot of it was the offense going 3 and out so many times and not being able to flip field position.
 
Lohengrin said:
Not sure how you define "talent". Our guys were missing tackles right and left against BC and ULM. Plus, we just don't recruit well enough to have "talent" in the ACC sense of the word. We have veteran players who should be playing better, but I can't see a top 50 defense out of them. We'll see how it pans out. I think you're going to be retracting these posts in the near future.
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Yeah, I don't see near the talent on this defense as we had during a 3 straight bowl appearances. We had guys like Jyles Tucker and Bryan Andrews at the ends. Boo Robinson, John Russel, Jamil Smith, and Zach Stukes in the middle. Everybody knows about the great group of linebackers we had during that stretch. Phonz, Patterson, Ghee (both), Vaughn, etc. in the secondary. I love the kids we've got on defense now, but I just don't see that kind of talent on this defense.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
The defense is not lacking in talent, but is lacking slightly in size. Personnel-wise, this is one of the better defenses Wake Forest has ever had. I already took the stats out for the Presbyterian game and Wake is still in the top half in the country in every major statistical defensive category. As I said we will see what happens when we play better teams, but the defense has done a pretty good job with what they've been given: 1) bad defensive play calls where we run a zone with guys eight to ten yards off the line and 2) a bad offense which has the defense on the field an incredibly large amount of time.

I agree the first drive of the game for ULM was frustrating, but those long drives will occur and the guys made adjustments and made plays to get the ball back in the hands of the offense. There was a lot of pressure on Browning on a good number of plays and we were able to get in there at times with only three or four guys rushing. The problems were, and will continue to be, that we're dropped back into a conservative zone where we're not challenging any receivers.

The defense is going to end up giving up more than 22.5 points a game against FBS teams, but I fully expect the defense to finish the year in the top 50 in the country in total defense and scoring defense. We have a pretty talented defensive team which makes the fact that the offense is so terrible even more apparent. The defense doesn't just look "good in comparison to our offense," the defense looks good compared to the rest of the country at this stage of the season. Don't let your disdain for the coaching staff to get in the way of the fact that we have a pretty good defense.
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Top 50 last year was under 25.5 ppg.
 
I think 25.5 is close to where we'll finish. Florida State and Clemson have potential to be outliers, so does Vandy since that's gonna be a garbage game...I think it just depends on how far those few games swing it. I don't imagine the defense will give up more than 30 points too much this year.
 
Wellman will cite all of these statistics as evidence of Lobo's consistency. And of course, we all know consistency is te most important part of building a foundation for the future.
 
Through my initial research I've found that in every year from 2008-2012 (against FBS opponents only) we have on average scored below what each team gives up.

2007 Averaged 27.9 points per game (56th) 10 Defensive Touchdowns Opponents Allowed 26.3 points per game Differential +1.6

2008 Averaged 21 points per game (91st) 3 Defensive Touchdowns Opponents Allowed 23.3 points per game Differential -2.3

2009 Averaged 25.5 points per game (67th) 1 Defensive Touchdown Opponents Allowed 26.7 points per game Differential -1.2

2010 Averaged 20 points per game (101st) 1 Defensive Touchdown Opponents Allowed 23.8 points per game Differential -3.8

2011 Averaged 24.2 points per game (75th) 1 Defensive Touchdown Opponents Allowed 25.1 points per game Differential -.9

2012 Averaged 18.4 points per game (113th) 2 Defensive Touchdowns Opponents Allowed 26.9 points per game Differential -8.5
 
I wish there were some type of points per possession stats. Our offense would probably look even worse (especially the last two years) given how many damn 3 and outs we've had. So many punts.
 
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff2012


Also, Football Outsiders does a really good job and has some interesting advanced stats. Some years our offense performed better than you would think, but overall Lobo turns out to be below average.

I'll just include overall rank

2007 (62nd/119)

2008 (66th/120)

2009 (22nd/120)

2010 (99th/120)

2011 (36th/120)

2012 (112th/124)
 
94Deac said:
I'm asking this here since PH and I have discussed this a few times going back to late 90s. How many opposing players have set career or team records in football games against WF? That BC back last night had a career best 200+.
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Browning set career-highs for attempts and completions. Jim Grobe's phone should be ringing off the hook from teams trying to schedule games against Wake. I'd really be interested to see what Oregon or Alabama would do to this team.
 
Didn't Boyd have like 400 yards passing in the first half against us last year. Its going to be a blood bath this year.
 
Anybody close to the team and Grobe know if the staff even looks at stats like these? Seems obvious Grobe does not, but confirmation would be nice.
 
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