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Romney campaign admits it - They're in big trouble

Fuck Your Couch said:
I also find it funny that the poll doubters keep touting Romney's independent leads (amazing how the polls consistently get that right) and bitching about the party identification splits when Romney's independent leads helps explain the party identification splits.
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Well enjoy your couch and the next four weeks. We'll revisit this when the exit polls come out. And for what it's worth, I'm not sure CNN has the independent number right. But my guess is there aren't many Republicans masquerading as independents, so I don't see it as good news for Obama. I still believe Romney is going to have a 3-4% margin in the popular vote. Whether that translates to an electoral college victory is beyond me. I have no idea and nobody else really does.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
Well enjoy your couch and the next four weeks. We'll revisit this when the exit polls come out. And for what it's worth, I'm not sure CNN has the independent number right. But my guess is there aren't many Republicans masquerading as independents, so I don't see it as good news for Obama. I still believe Romney is going to have a 3-4% margin in the popular vote. Whether that translates to an electoral college victory is beyond me. I have no idea and nobody else really does.
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There is nothing to get right. They are not making any assumptions. They are recording data. That goes for all the pollsters. How people don't understand this is beyond me.
 
And why you think sampling is purely random is beyond me. The sample is useless if it doesn't reflect the makeup of the population. Most pollsters are basing the makeup of the likely voter population on 2008 exit polls. I think that is a mistake for a number of reasons. We both look at it from separate directions. We'll know soon enough who is correct.
 
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DirkTheDeac said:
And why you think sampling is purely random is beyond me. The sample is useless if it doesn't reflect the makeup of the population. Most pollsters are basing the makeup of the likely voter population on 2008 exit polls. I think that is a mistake for a number of reasons. We both look at it from separate directions. We'll know soon enough who is correct.
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Except I am using facts and you are making stuff up. Zero respected pollsters are using anything having to do with the 2008 election. Zero. It is against polling protocol. They try to get an accurate representation of the population by going after a random sample. Gallup itself says it doesn't do anything but ask the question and write down the answer.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Except I am using facts and you are making stuff up. Zero respected pollsters are using anything having to do with the 2008 election. Zero. It is against polling protocol. They try to get an accurate representation of the population by going after a random sample. Gallup itself says it doesn't do anything but ask the question and write down the answer.
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Super. If you want to believe Democrat turnout will be 7-11% greater than Republican in this election because of supposed random digital dialing then knock yourself out. Educate me in four weeks. I'm out.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
Super. If you want to believe Democrat turnout will be 7-11% greater than Republican in this election because of supposed random digital dialing then knock yourself out. Educate me in four weeks. I'm out.
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That's not even what the polls say or what the party identification question measures.
 
Dirk wants to believe.
Dirk needs to believe.
 
Dirk man... you need to get Netflix or something. Your ways of entertaining yourself in the evening are pretty sad.
 
deacvision7 said:
DirkTheDeac is so fucking ignorant when it comes to statistics that it infuriates me.
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dude no way, he took a statistics class once

one thing that is entertaining as hell each morning is reading all the nonsense posted the night before
 
In line with last night's Pew poll and what we're hearing will be a positive Gallup poll today, the left-wing Daily Kos has just released a poll with more bad news for Barack Obama. Not only is Mitt Romney in the lead 49-47%, he's also consolidating his base and making huge gains with women and Independents:

So where did Romney gain? Among women, Obama went from a 15-point lead to a slimmer 51-45 edge. Meanwhile, Romney went from winning independents 44-41 to winning them 48-42. And just like the Ipsos poll showed last week, Romney further consolidated his base. They went from supporting him 85-13 last week, to 87-11 this week while Obama lost some Democrats, going from 88-9 last week, to 87-11 this week.
 
All because of one debate. This country has the attention span of a goldfish.
 
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