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2020 Presidential Election: Biden v. Trump

cville deac said:
There hasn't been much, if any, MT polling yet that I recall, so I'm not ready to go in the bag just yet. Cook has it as a toss-up, and Sabato has it a lean Pub. I tend to agree that Bullock's relative popularity should rate that at least a toss-up, but we need to see some polling.

Wakelaw13, I don't agree. Both the NC presidential and senate races were polling very closely 2-4 months ago. But Trump's numbers nationwide have eroded a bit over the last 2 months because of his handling of the rona and the protests. It's getting commonplace to see Biden up by 5-9 points in swing state polls. While I doubt there will be much ticket splitting, however, Cunningham's recent leads have lagged Biden's leads by 2-3 points. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cunningham's actual November numbers lag a bit behind Biden's because a number of folks voting for president and not for senate.

Edited to add that I agree NC is just running a bit behind NC in becoming bluish purple. The other thing I'd say about VA is that it really isn't as blue as it's seeming. The problem with the Pub party in VA is it's still dominated by the religious right. We have Jerry Jr and Pat Robertson here, and at the grass roots level, that faction of the party usually gets its way. Over the last decade, they've continued to nominate religious right types and Trumpites for statewide office, and white suburbanites are increasingly rejecting those types. Fortunately for us, the state Pub party hasn't realized they're fighting losing culture battles.
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isn't there a weird thing about Pubs in VA select their candidate by a small committee, rather than having a primary open to all registered Pub voters?
 
I think Biden and Cunningham can definitely win NC, and that Cooper will win easily. But there is no way I believe Biden +9 in NC. I'm betting the winner of this state only carries it by 3 or less points.

NC will move the way VA and Arizona have - the urban areas are going to drown out the rural areas. We're a good bit behind VA, but it's just a matter of time.
 
BeachBumDeac said:
isn't there a weird thing about Pubs in VA select their candidate by a small committee, rather than having a primary open to all registered Pub voters?
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Yeah, because the religious right controls party goings on. That's how we ended up with Kookinelli over Bolling, Corey Stewart and now this Liberty U person Good. You don't end up with nominees like this if you have a primary. You do if you do it by caucus or committee. But sssshhh, don't tell them.

I'm also glad to see the national Dem party and states mostly doing away with state caucuses to determine the presidential nominee in favor of primaries. Caucuses favor activists, single folks without kids, seniors and folks who work 9-5 jobs and disenfranchise working class folks, families who would have trouble paying a baby sitter for a few hours and folks who would otherwise vote but don't want to spend multiple hours at an event where you have to engage with others on end.
 
cville deac said:
Yeah, because the religious right controls party goings on. That's how we ended up with Kookinelli over Bolling, Corey Stewart and now this Liberty U person Good. You don't end up with nominees like this if you have a primary. You do if you do it by caucus or committee. But sssshhh, don't tell them.

I'm also glad to see the national Dem party and states mostly doing away with state caucuses to determine the presidential nominee in favor of primaries. Caucuses favor activists, single folks without kids, seniors and folks who work 9-5 jobs and disenfranchise working class folks, families who would have trouble paying a baby sitter for a few hours and folks who would otherwise vote but don't want to spend multiple hours at an event where you have to engage with others on end.
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Yep... running to the extremes when you don't have the majority in a state or it's close to 50/50 is generally not a good idea.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Yep... running to the extremes when you don't have the majority in a state or it's close to 50/50 is generally not a good idea.
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You’re presupposing here that each 50% here prefers centrists or moderates though, no?
 
TownieDeac said:
You’re presupposing here that each 50% here prefers centrists or moderates though, no?
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No. VA is close to a 50/50 but is a little bluer now, so probably 52% now Dem. And that 52% includes everyone from moderates to left wing types. And in the 2 Richmond area districts and the 2 NoVa districts our Dem representatives are more to the left. And in VA-2 and VA-7 (2 reddish purple districts which we just won for the 1st time) 2 more moderate Dems won those districts. My point that Chris was commenting on was that VA Pubs haven't noticed that the state, er commonwealth, demographics have changed and continue to run right wing religious zealots who will invariably lose instead of running moderate Pubs like Bill Bolling who would have legit shots at winning.
 
cville deac said:
No. VA is close to a 50/50 but is a little bluer now, so probably 52% now Dem. And that 52% includes everyone from moderates to left wing types. And in the 2 Richmond area districts and the 2 NoVa districts our Dem representatives are more to the left. And in VA-2 and VA-7 (2 reddish purple districts which we just won for the 1st time) 2 more moderate Dems won those districts. My point that Chris was commenting on was that VA Pubs haven't noticed that the state, er commonwealth, demographics have changed and continue to run right wing religious zealots who will invariably lose instead of running moderate Pubs like Bill Bolling who would have legit shots at winning.
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ChrisL68 said:
Not at all.
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First, thanks for engaging.

Next, then does the point presuppose that in a 50% or less scenario a centrist or moderate garners, by very definition a higher percentage of said 50% of the vote than would “an extremist”?
 
BarcaDeac said:
people who would be turned off by, say, Warren for some reason. care to elaborate, Pop?
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Sure I’ll try but these are only my opinions.

Anyone who believes that Biden’s choice of VP isn’t critical is wrong. A positive choice such as Tammy Duckworth would lend itself to a possible landslide barring a debate meltdown. The left loves Warren but in my mind she is way too controversial, too outspoken and would hurt Biden’s ability to attract more “middle of the road” voter. Those are voters who have come around to hate Trump but know in this election the VP Candidate on both tickets may be President sooner than 2024. Not sure about Harris; she likely would neither hurt him or help him but not sure of her “likability” factor.
I’ll end with the obvious; this election is not about liking Biden, it’s about disliking Trump.
Biden needs to make it easy on voters to feel that way.
 
Duckworth isn't going to help Biden anymore than Warren would hurt him. The VP pick will not matter.
 
cville deac said:
Yeah, because the religious right controls party goings on. That's how we ended up with Kookinelli over Bolling, Corey Stewart and now this Liberty U person Good. You don't end up with nominees like this if you have a primary. You do if you do it by caucus or committee. But sssshhh, don't tell them.

I'm also glad to see the national Dem party and states mostly doing away with state caucuses to determine the presidential nominee in favor of primaries. Caucuses favor activists, single folks without kids, seniors and folks who work 9-5 jobs and disenfranchise working class folks, families who would have trouble paying a baby sitter for a few hours and folks who would otherwise vote but don't want to spend multiple hours at an event where you have to engage with others on end.
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Yea also

 
DeacsPop said:
No; Pop just laughing at all the "mortal lock" Biden supporters who forgot what happened in 2016.
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You need to spend some time in the Midwest and then talk. Trump is finished politically. And come August you are going to see the Republican party actively begin the process of redefining itself and many of its members distancing themselves from Trump. This has wave election written all over it. The only question is the size of the Tsunami.

Headline today from Wall Street Journal column re: Trump's horrible political standing: "He hasn’t been equal to the crises. He never makes anything better. And everyone kind of knows."
 
DeacWatcher said:
ConnorEl said:
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Biden Has An Edge Over Trump, With 5 Months To Go

Sadly, it’s not by a landslide.

Looking at that its not a landslide but it could become one. You have to figure PA, NV & NH are already in the bag for the blue team. AZ is starting to look that way but anything can happen. If Mark Kelly wins that senate race out there his coattails could pull Biden over the line and its over. If the others break for Biden (FL, NC, WI) then you get your landslide.
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Trump right now has the lowest standing of any President in decades running for re-election. And do you actually think the economy is going to improve in the next 3-4 mos in any significant way?
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While Trump seemed obviously out of his depth in '16, I wouldn't underestimate the "maybe it won't be as bad as it looks" vote from average joes. Quite a few people I respected as intelligent human beings voted Trump and that was their reasoning. People hated Hillary that much. Kinda hard to feel this way in 2020.
 
ChrisL68 said:
North Carolina should be moving the same way Virginia is moving. Increasing population centered in the urban areas that are democratic and population drain in rural areas. At some point North Carolina will turn to bluish purple from reddish purple.
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Yep. Both NC and GA (and probably TX) are on the same trajectory as VA, they're just a number of years behind. They're all steadily moving from historically rural-dominant to urban-dominant, all of their population and economic growth is in urban areas, while the rural areas are hollowing out economically and steadily declining as a percentage of their state's population. Given that the urban (and even some suburban) areas are increasingly Democratic, while the rural areas are the source of Republican strength, that's not a good trajectory for Republicans long-term. The Democrats keep creeping closer in all three states to finally gaining a majority, the question is how much longer it will take to reach a tipping point, as finally happened in VA a little over a decade ago.
 
A leading Senate Republican, John Thune of SD, has publicly announced the alarm to fellow Republicans about Trump's slumping poll numbers. Asked whether the poll numbers meant that Trump's campaign needed to change its strategy, Thune said "It's a message that there needs to be a — certainly a change in probably strategy as far as the White House's messaging is concerned" and added "I think he can win those back, but it'll probably require not only a message that deals with substance and policy but, I think, a message that conveys, perhaps, a different tone."

Good luck with getting Trump to change anything. Thune also expressed concern that Trump may drag down the GOP's Senate candidates this year. After listening to Republicans ridicule Joe Biden for "hiding in his basement", I found it amusing that Thune basically admitted that it's been an effective strategy, as it's been "Trump versus Trump" over the past couple of months, and that voters don't like what they're seeing. LOL.

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/top-gop-senator-fears-trump-soft-independents-urges-shift-strategy-n1232024
 
Highland Deac said:
A leading Senate Republican, John Thune of SD, has publicly announced the alarm to fellow Republicans about Trump's slumping poll numbers. Asked whether the poll numbers meant that Trump's campaign needed to change its strategy, Thune said "It's a message that there needs to be a — certainly a change in probably strategy as far as the White House's messaging is concerned" and added "I think he can win those back, but it'll probably require not only a message that deals with substance and policy but, I think, a message that conveys, perhaps, a different tone."

Good luck with getting Trump to change anything. Thune also expressed concern that Trump may drag down the GOP's Senate candidates this year. After listening to Republicans ridicule Joe Biden for "hiding in his basement", I found it amusing that Thune basically admitted that it's been an effective strategy, as it's been "Trump versus Trump" over the past couple of months, and that voters don't like what they're seeing. LOL.

Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/top-gop-senator-fears-trump-soft-independents-urges-shift-strategy-n1232024
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Ha; that's hysterical. They'll likely be more and more Pubs running for cover as we near November if something dramatic doesn't happen.
And the chance of that leopard changing his spots, forget about it.
Biden imploding is his only shot.
 
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