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Consolidated Bracketology Thread 3/12/23 updates

wsc8521s said:
Not necessarily. Missouri State actually was good this year, KP#63, their coach seems to have them on the up.

UMass yeah they've sucked, but from what I've gathered their AD is going to be ambitious with their hire. Kinda hard to believe someone like Archie Miller would go there, but if they grab somebody like Bryant's coach they could turn things around quick
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I know URI wants Archie Miller in the worst way. I think they’d win out, but who knows. The Bryant coach is riding the wave of Peter Kiss at the moment. I have to be think their fan base would be very disappointed with that hire.
 
PhDeac said:
That would be cool but I don't see much coming out of it for football much less basketball. Developing some Big East and SEC rivalries would be more fun. Play some drivable SEC schools (Tennessee again, Vandy, Georgia, SC) and get back to playing Xavier and throw in Georgetown and Villanova.

I don't see any reason to play a low major outside of NC. NC has plenty of low-major schools with alumni who will show up and they won't demand a home and home (although I wouldn't mind giving one to J Gray at WCU or to UNC-G or A&T at the Coliseum). Helping in-state low major programs helps Wake and helps the state.
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Marquette or Providence would be great too. Really any of the private schools in the Big East (so any of them but UConn).

This year’s non-conference was tough not only because of 1 Quad 1 shot, but also zero Quad 2 attempts. It would be hard to replicate that.

That said, If we play in Jamaica and get like a Quad 2/2 3s, then add WCU, NC A&T, and UNC-G, we’re already on the path to a similar, maybe slightly better schedule as this year. We’d have 5 possible Quad 1 shots, more likely if a couple more were at home we are looking at maybe 2/2 in the top two quads. Better, but not by a ton. Then we’d hope
Our schedule gives us more than 8 such chances in conference, which is all we got this year — and we saw what counting on that got us this year.
 
Haros said:
Marquette or Providence would be great too. Really any of the private schools in the Big East (so any of them but UConn).

This year’s non-conference was tough not only because of 1 Quad 1 shot, but also zero Quad 2 attempts. It would be hard to replicate that.

That said, If we play in Jamaica and get like a Quad 2/2 3s, then add WCU, NC A&T, and UNC-G, we’re already on the path to a similar, maybe slightly better schedule as this year. We’d have 5 possible Quad 1 shots, more likely if a couple more were at home we are looking at maybe 2/2 in the top two quads. Better, but not by a ton. Then we’d hope
Our schedule gives us more than 8 such chances in conference, which is all we got this year — and we saw what counting on that got us this year.
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If we play Providence at Providence at any point, I’m happy to host some kind of Deac party! I’m excited just thinking of this imaginary home and away series!
 
If you have the COY and POY you shouldn’t even be on the bubble…we have ourselves to blame
 
The Bracket Matrix finalized its results for this year

In aggregate, the consolidated matrix, or wisdom of the crowd, got 67 teams correctly and within one seed line (the miss being Texas A&M; brackets basically split down the middle between Rutgers and ND regarding who should have been left out). The matrix got 51 teams exactly right, on the correct seed line.

5 individual brackets out of 211 performed better than the consolidated matrix. Crazy Sports Dude has been a consistently very good performer over the past few years.

Lunardi finished tied for 150th out of 211. Jerry Palm finished 194th out of 211.
 
Bump.

I'm really struggling with the fact that NC State is up to a solid 8 seed and we are seemingly not that close to the bubble line. It doesn't feel like their resume is much different than ours...except maybe our scheduling keeps getting worse through no doing of our own (For example: Duke, Wisconsin, VT, LSU on the downswing).

That being said about NC State - happy for them to keep building their resume for now until we beat the shit out of them.
 
Wisconsin and Duke are both ranked teams, and we won @ Wisconsin. That win will be huge if we can make it to the bubble. LSU was an unfortunate loss and VT doesn't look like nearly as good of a win as expected. But we'll have plenty more chances at "big" wins. State's current standing means two opportunities at very solid wins.
 
Looks like as of yesterday (January 12), we're in 10 of 64 brackets with an average seed of 11 (i.e., for the 10 brackets that have us in at all).
 
We have the same Q1 and Q2 record as State. We have 1 Q3 loss (1-1), they don't have any (2-0). Both undefeated in Q4. I have no idea how that equals 50 spots worth of distance between us.

I struggle to see us getting more than 12 ACC wins. That would give us a similar record to last season with a stronger schedule, and that is likely out? That stinks.

We have to find a way to game this system better in the coming seasons. We should be a comfortable bid at 20+ wins, and a bubble team at 18-19 wins. If that means we have to play the whole B10 in the out of conference schedule, so be it. I know the Jamaica classic burned us a bit this season, we can't have that happen next season where we should be competitive again if we can find another PG.
 
PaddyWF said:
We have the same Q1 and Q2 record as State. We have 1 Q3 loss (1-1), they don't have any (2-0). Both undefeated in Q4. I have no idea how that equals 50 spots worth of distance between us.

I struggle to see us getting more than 12 ACC wins. That would give us a similar record to last season with a stronger schedule, and that is likely out? That stinks.

We have to find a way to game this system better in the coming seasons. We should be a comfortable bid at 20+ wins, and a bubble team at 18-19 wins. If that means we have to play the whole B10 in the out of conference schedule, so be it. I know the Jamaica classic burned us a bit this season, we can't have that happen next season where we should be competitive again if we can find another PG.
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Because they have beat the living shit out of some teams and have only lost one game by double digits.

Their 13 wins are by 242 combined points (18.6 PPG margin). Our 12 wins are by 135 (11.2 PPG margin).
Their 4 losses this year are by a combined 35 points (8.8 PPG margin). Our 5 losses are by a combined 57 (11.4 PPG margin).

99% of the time when people wonder "why is team X ranked higher than team Y in the NET" it is going to be due to margin of victory in their wins and margin of defeat in their losses.
 
It would be great if WF could win every game, but failing that, almost as good to not get blown out in our losses.

Looking at roadies at Duke, Miami, NC State as games where we need to at least keep it close.
 
NC State is ahead of us by the margin that they are due to their metrics and resume overall (aka their "team sheet" which is presented to the committee and includes predictive and resume ratings). Taking a look at the teamsheets which the committee will see:

State - 30th NET, 39th KPI, 31st SOR; 39th BPI, 35th KenPom, 37th Sagarin

Wake - 81st NET, 41st KP, 52nd SOR; 76th BPI, 80th KenPom, 72nd Sagarin '

Wake has played a slightly more difficult schedule and our OOC (which we can generally control sans committed tie ins like Jamaica) was solidly better (by 80 spots or so - ranked in the top 75). State is currently 13-4 to Wake's 12-5, so just one game separates us there right now

The reason State is doing better in metrics is traceable to how they've performed against each of the quadrants looking beyond mere wins and losses:

State's Average Margin Per Quad in PPG (using Torvik's Quads for ease to not have to cross-reference NET w/ schedule):
Q4: +22
Q3: +11.5
Q2: +6.33
Q1: +.25

Wake's Average Margin Per Quad in PPG (using Torvik's Quads for ease to not have to cross-reference NET w/ schedule):
Q4: +15
Q3: +4
Q2: +1
Q1: -7.8

This difference across the board in each quadrant shows why the teamsheet numbers have State a solid margin above Wake right now. Their overall margins against each group is higher than Wake.
 
A simple look at common opponents

WF:
beat VT by 2 at home
beak Duke by 11 at home
lost to Clemson by 20 on the road
beat UL by 8 on the road
+1 over 4 games, 2H/2A

NCSU:
beat VT by 4 away - ADV NCSU
beat Duke by 24 at home - ADV NCSU
lost to Clemson by 14 away - ADV NCSU
beat UL by 12 at home - slight ADV WF
+26 over 4 games, 2H/2A - ADV NCSU
 
It's hard to beat teams by 20+ points in college basketball and when you do, it's a pretty solid indication that you REALLY took care of business and are deservedly better than that team over roughly 65-70 possessions which certainly helps predictive outlooks. I checked last week, but the ACC only had a total of 34 20+ point wins as a conference before the most recent slate of conference games and NC State has 5 of those 34, including a 24 point win over another Q1 team.
 
PaddyWF said:
We have the same Q1 and Q2 record as State. We have 1 Q3 loss (1-1), they don't have any (2-0). Both undefeated in Q4. I have no idea how that equals 50 spots worth of distance between us.

I struggle to see us getting more than 12 ACC wins. That would give us a similar record to last season with a stronger schedule, and that is likely out? That stinks.

We have to find a way to game this system better in the coming seasons. We should be a comfortable bid at 20+ wins, and a bubble team at 18-19 wins. If that means we have to play the whole B10 in the out of conference schedule, so be it. I know the Jamaica classic burned us a bit this season, we can't have that happen next season where we should be competitive again if we can find another PG.
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The issue last year and this year are totally different. Last year we played a really bad OOC schedule and did a solid job of beating them handily (which shows in the top 40-50 ratings on the teamsheet across the board). The shortcoming last year was lack of meaningful opportunities against top tier opponents and failure to capitalize when we did have them (only 1-4 against Q1 opponents). The committee seems to place more emphasis overall on OOC SOS.

This year we've played a solid OOC SOS, but we didn't take care of business to the degree we did last year against bad teams at large (metrics aren't as good because of it). On the flip side we are taking advantage of meaningful opportunities against better opponents and don't have the knock that we didn't challenge ourselves in the OOC, padding our wins with bad opponents. This should give us more leeway as far as the NET and other numbers are concerned.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
It's hard to beat teams by 20+ points in college basketball and when you do, it's a pretty solid indication that you REALLY took care of business and are deservedly better than that team over roughly 65-70 possessions which certainly helps predictive outlooks. I checked last week, but the ACC only had a total of 34 20+ point wins as a conference before the most recent slate of conference games and NC State has 5 of those 34, including a 24 point win over another Q1 team.
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And WF has one of those losses, plus another one to an OOC team (granted, a very good team in a true road game, but still an ugly loss)
 
The Clemson and Rutgers losses being so big are killing the metrics. Not even getting into the 2 games we should've won that we lost.

Plus we've won some close games. I think the path is simpler this year, we gotta get 13 games to feel decent going into the ACCT where we need to win a couple.
 
deacfan123 said:
The Clemson and Rutgers losses being so big are killing the metrics. Not even getting into the 2 games we should've won that we lost.

Plus we've won some close games. I think the path is simpler this year, we gotta get 13 games to feel decent going into the ACCT where we need to win a couple.
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Yeah 13-7 in ACC plus a semifinal appearance in the tourney would leave us at 23 wins. That's clearly in and probably like a 7 seed?
 
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