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It's all but official now: Jeb is running!

I'd put the chances about 50/50, but let's not say bad stuff about the Dems before the election starts, ok?
 
Both Hillary and Jeb have to like the way the field is shaping up. Hillary has a temper like Christie and she can't afford to lose it in a contested primary field. Obama and Biden fell all over themselves trying not to antagonize women by going after Palin directly themselves and any reasonable/rational GOP nominee will have the same problem with Hillary in a general election.

Jeb in the field eliminates Romney and turns the big money spigots off for Christie. Iowa will be a social conservative demolition derby and Cruz, Perry, Huckabee, Santorum, Pence, and Carson will cannibalize each other with only one left standing. Rand, Kasich or Walker, Christie, and the Iowa survivor can be eliminated systematically in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Jeb wipes out the remaining survivors in Florida.

Hillary vs Jeb neutralizes the dynasty/left over complaints on both sides. Tea Party will be pissed they couldn't get a "true conservative" on the top of the ticket, but they hate Benghazi Hil more than they hate Jeb. Dem base loves Warren more than Hillary, but they really hate the Bush family.
 
Ugh. He would've been a good candidate several years ago, but I'm getting tired of how we seem to be gravitating toward families. Whether it's the Kennedys, the Clintons, or the Bushes, it's as if we want a bit of faux royalty.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
Both Hillary and Jeb have to like the way the field is shaping up. Hillary has a temper like Christie and she can't afford to lose it in a contested primary field. Obama and Biden fell all over themselves trying not to antagonize women by going after Palin directly themselves and any reasonable/rational GOP nominee will have the same problem with Hillary in a general election.

Jeb in the field eliminates Romney and turns the big money spigots off for Christie. Iowa will be a social conservative demolition derby and Cruz, Perry, Huckabee, Santorum, Pence, and Carson will cannibalize each other with only one left standing. Rand, Kasich or Walker, Christie, and the Iowa survivor can be eliminated systematically in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Jeb wipes out the remaining survivors in Florida.

Hillary vs Jeb neutralizes the dynasty/left over complaints on both sides. Tea Party will be pissed they couldn't get a "true conservative" on the top of the ticket, but they hate Benghazi Hil more than they hate Jeb. Dem base loves Warren more than Hillary, but they really hate the Bush family.
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Good assessment. You reminded me of how Team Hillary played up that Lazio debate as some kind of assault on women when he dared stand too close to her.

I think you underestimate the anger of the so-called Tea Party conservatives, though. The GOP is on the verge of a big fracture. It's not just the religious right they need to worry about, but the fiscal conservatives. Jeb isn't going to endear himself to them either.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
I think you underestimate the anger of the so-called Tea Party conservatives, though. The GOP is on the verge of a big fracture. It's not just the religious right they need to worry about, but the fiscal conservatives. Jeb isn't going to endear himself to them either.
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If Jeb, Christie, or Mitt gets the nomination, a chunk of the current GOP base may leave the party. Walker, Rand, or Kasich might appease them, but they would rather have Cruz, Palin, or Carson.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
Ugh. He would've been a good candidate several years ago, but I'm getting tired of how we seem to be gravitating toward families. Whether it's the Kennedys, the Clintons, or the Bushes, it's as if we want a bit of faux royalty.
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US politics has had faux royalty since 1776, broseph
 
Shorty said:
Where would they go?
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Exactly. Leaving is for losers. If they wanna win, they stay and go out and vote for the Republican candidate. One would think that adults would understand that. Did Ronald Reagan leave the Republican Party, when Ford won the nomination? What are these people? Some sort of Librul fifth column?
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
If Jeb, Christie, or Mitt gets the nomination, a chunk of the current GOP base may leave the party. Walker, Rand, or Kasich might appease them, but they would rather have Cruz, Palin, or Carson.
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Just reading that possibility is traumatizing.
 
bobknightfan said:
When you get to the bottom line, that's the real ongoing problem for the Republican Party. When an already minority party splits into two minority parties, how can either one of them hope to win a national election?

The only "new" party that I could see gaining any real traction at all would be some kind of combination that is moderate to conservative on financial issues and moderate to liberal on social issues. In other words, something at least kind of like the Republican Party was before Goldwater & Reagan. The old northeast "Rockefeller Republicans", if you will.

Right now, though, the GOP is so fucked up with all of its religious nuts, gun nuts & Tea Party nuts that I don't see how they could pull something like that off. But that's the price they are paying for thinking they could suck up to those people and then control them after all the elections were over. If you sleep with dogs, you're going to wake up with fleas. Or, as President Kennedy said in his inaugural address 54 years ago: "Remember that, in the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside."

The Republican Party, in its zeal to regain political power, has created its own Frankenstein with these Tea Party fanatics....and now that monster they created is on the verge of turning on its master.
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I believe this is a fair assessment especially with the term Rockefeller Repubs, I just think its too late in the game to revert back to this. As stated there are simply to many nuts and fruitcakes in the current GOP to allow this to happen and I think they really won't show up at polls if Jeb is the candidate to fully prove their point to the establishment once and for all. This would fully snap the GOP from what they used to be. Also the math simply sucks for the GOP these days as far the electoral map is concerned.
 
Another clue that Jeb is going to blow off Iowa: he's declined an invitation to appear at Steve King's annual Iowa pow wow. Jeb knows he can't win a general election if he's hard core anti-immigration reform, so he's willing to let others fight it out in Iowa. The Iowa Caucus screws the GOP every four years. Presidential wannabes are forced to take ridiculous stances to win in Iowa that are toxic in the the general election. See: Presidents Huckabee and Santorum. Frothy and Bachmann were the only two 'Pubs to sign a loopy 2011 social conservative manifesto that praised the "family values of slavery" from another alleged Iowa "kingmaker". Bachmann later showed her shaky grasp of US history, but praising the family values of slavery without acknowledging that families were sold off piecemeal is disqualifying for anyone with presidential aspirations.
 
Jeb is probably very good on immigration. The problem is the GOP won't allow any real progress on the issue. If they try to defund or stop Obama's EO, they will emasculate anything Jeb may talk about.

The best thing Jeb has going for him is absolute ineptitude and weakness of the Dems. If they had any brains and/or any ball, he would have no chance to win. Luckily for him, they don't and it could make it close.
 
Sometimes I think about how Fox News tries to scare the shit out of everyone by talking about extremists, and at the same time pushing an extremist agenda designed to get ultra conservative candidates elected, so they can gerrymander and create safe districts, ensuring elections (primaries) which only serve to push the two republicans further to the right, and I want to break shit.
 
silk said:
Clinton will not run IMO.
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Bubba was shunned by the Dem base after the 2008 primaries and had to do a huge amount of groveling to get back into their good graces. While the base prefers Warren to Hillary, the window for Hillary to announce she wasn't running has already long since passed. The Clintons already cleared the field for Hillary and they'll totally hose the Dem party if she doesn't run. Bill's way too needy to allow himself to be shunned by the Dem base again.
 
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