TownieDeac
words are futile devices
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
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I'd put the chances about 50/50, but let's not say bad stuff about the Dems before the election starts, ok?
Both Hillary and Jeb have to like the way the field is shaping up. Hillary has a temper like Christie and she can't afford to lose it in a contested primary field. Obama and Biden fell all over themselves trying not to antagonize women by going after Palin directly themselves and any reasonable/rational GOP nominee will have the same problem with Hillary in a general election.
Jeb in the field eliminates Romney and turns the big money spigots off for Christie. Iowa will be a social conservative demolition derby and Cruz, Perry, Huckabee, Santorum, Pence, and Carson will cannibalize each other with only one left standing. Rand, Kasich or Walker, Christie, and the Iowa survivor can be eliminated systematically in New Hampshire and South Carolina and Jeb wipes out the remaining survivors in Florida.
Hillary vs Jeb neutralizes the dynasty/left over complaints on both sides. Tea Party will be pissed they couldn't get a "true conservative" on the top of the ticket, but they hate Benghazi Hil more than they hate Jeb. Dem base loves Warren more than Hillary, but they really hate the Bush family.
I think you underestimate the anger of the so-called Tea Party conservatives, though. The GOP is on the verge of a big fracture. It's not just the religious right they need to worry about, but the fiscal conservatives. Jeb isn't going to endear himself to them either.
If Jeb, Christie, or Mitt gets the nomination, a chunk of the current GOP base may leave the party. Walker, Rand, or Kasich might appease them, but they would rather have Cruz, Palin, or Carson.
Ugh. He would've been a good candidate several years ago, but I'm getting tired of how we seem to be gravitating toward families. Whether it's the Kennedys, the Clintons, or the Bushes, it's as if we want a bit of faux royalty.
I called it on another thread, i think Jebbers wins.
Where would they go?
If Jeb, Christie, or Mitt gets the nomination, a chunk of the current GOP base may leave the party. Walker, Rand, or Kasich might appease them, but they would rather have Cruz, Palin, or Carson.
When you get to the bottom line, that's the real ongoing problem for the Republican Party. When an already minority party splits into two minority parties, how can either one of them hope to win a national election?
The only "new" party that I could see gaining any real traction at all would be some kind of combination that is moderate to conservative on financial issues and moderate to liberal on social issues. In other words, something at least kind of like the Republican Party was before Goldwater & Reagan. The old northeast "Rockefeller Republicans", if you will.
Right now, though, the GOP is so fucked up with all of its religious nuts, gun nuts & Tea Party nuts that I don't see how they could pull something like that off. But that's the price they are paying for thinking they could suck up to those people and then control them after all the elections were over. If you sleep with dogs, you're going to wake up with fleas. Or, as President Kennedy said in his inaugural address 54 years ago: "Remember that, in the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside."
The Republican Party, in its zeal to regain political power, has created its own Frankenstein with these Tea Party fanatics....and now that monster they created is on the verge of turning on its master.
Clinton will not run IMO.