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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

Wakeforest22890 said:
Re: Penn State

Up to 58th in KenPom after beating Michigan last night. Does this mean they're better than Michigan RJ?
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#s, you are going full loon. PSU was 8-15 AND had lost to Rutgers among others. It's not like they were 18-5 and had a bad loss. It the TOTALITY of their season not one game.

This was a weak effort by you...
 
Not weak at all. Penn State's 6 point win last night over Michigan last night legitimized Penn State's KP ranking (#62 heading into last night), which you criticized. Yes, they were 8-15, but they had beaten Virginia Tech, and had lost of ton of close games.

An ignorant person would look at the Penn State's 8-15 record, and think "they are terrible" they have no chance to beat Michigan. But when you look behind their record and see all of their close losses, including in OT to Purdue in PSU's last home game, and you would see that Penn State is a lot better than their W-L record. PSU is a dangerous team.
 
When busted so obviously, Pilch changes EVERYTHING RJ has said. Why don't you look at the ENTIRE post? I realize it's easier to extract one piece and attack it, but it's lazy and totally dishonest.
 
RJKarl said:
#s, you are going full loon. PSU was 8-15 AND had lost to Rutgers among others. It's not like they were 18-5 and had a bad loss. It the TOTALITY of their season not one game.

This was a weak effort by you...
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You're the one who criticized the system by saying Penn State's ranking ahead of Rutgers was ridiculous even though Rutgers beat them.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
I’m going to be sad watching Louisville play for the rest of time. Watching Mack coach not at Wake is sad.
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Chris Mack was never a fan of W-S so the odds of him returning as head coach were close to nil even before Dino's departure.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Wes would still be on my list of realistic candidates if he weren’t connected but there’s certainly an element of familiarity that gives him a boost. I generally look at any coaches that have a low major in the KP top 100 and have an upward career trajectory - that’s where you’re going to find good value hires if you don’t get guys in the home run tier.
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Circling back to this now, but that's overwhelmingly not true.

Below is a list of the five years between 2010 and 2014 where low major coaches cracked the KP top 100. Those five years were selected so that there would be at least five years of results post-'breakthrough'. Low major was defined as any conference not rated in the Top 15 during that given year (some conferences, like Ivy, were thus considered low majors some years but not all years). Regardless of how you split it, the results are basically the same.

In these five years, 38 coaches were able to take low major programs into the top-100 of KenPom. Of those 38, only 11 were ever hired by P6 programs (Billy Kennedy, Brad Underwood, Danny Manning, Donnie Tyndall, John Groce, Kermit Davis Jr, Mike White, Steve Donahue, Steve Pikiell, Steve Prohm, and Wayne Tinkle).

Of those 11 coaches, only three can be considered successful hires - Billy Kennedy, Mike White, and Steve Prohm. Kermit Davis Jr is looking alright in his first season at Ole Miss, but so did John Groce in his first year at Illinois and he was fired after five seasons (and no winning seasons in the Big 10).

Many of the coaches on the below list were 'hot names' for a season or two, but have since flamed out at their low-major programs. Perhaps the best example is Steve Masiello, who was getting tons of interest for major jobs the offseason we hired Manning, but stayed at Manhattan and has been 44-74 over the past four seasons.

So, basically, I disagree that this is a good place to start. With only 8% of the coaches becoming successful P6 hires, there's probably more predictive metrics to look at that are much more valuable.

2010
Cornell (#46) - Steve Donahue
Murray State (#53) - Billy Kennedy
Kent State (#86) - Geno Ford
Ohio (#94) - John Groce
Montana (#95) - Wayne Tinkle
Pacific (#97) - Bob Thomason
Sam Houston State (#100) - Bob Marlin

2011
Belmont (#23) - Rick Byrd
Oakland (#56) - Greg Kampe
Iona (#66) - Tim Cluess
College of Charleston (#70) - Bobby Cremins
Wofford (#84) - Mike Young
Morehead State (#89) - Donnie Tyndall
Long Beach State (#94) - Dan Monson
Bucknell (#96) - Dave Paulsen

2012
Belmont (#25) - Rick Byrd
Murray State (#35) - Steve Prohm
Long Beach State (#36) - Dan Monson
Harvard (#41) - Tommy Amaker
Middle Tennessee State (#49) - Kermit Davis Jr
Iona (#54) - Tim Cluess
South Dakota State (#61) - Scott Nagy
Davidson (#71) - Bob McKillop
Denver (#73) - Joe Scott
Lehigh (#79) - Brett Reed
Bucknell (#89) - Dave Paulsen
Oral Roberts (#91) - Scott Sutton
Mercer (#96) - Bob Hoffman
Princeton (#100) - Mitch Henderson

2013
Belmont (#43) - Rick Byrd
Middle Tennessee State (#44) - Kermit Davis Jr
Bucknell (#58) - Dave Paulsen
Stony Brook (#60) - Steve Pikiell
Davidson (#66) - Bob McKillop
Stephen F Austin (#70) - Danny Kaspar
Weber State (#71) - Randy Rahe
North Dakota State (#75) - Saul Phillips
Princeton (#87) - Mitch Henderson
Lehigh (#91) - Brett Reed
Harvard (#93) - Tommy Amaker
South Dakota State (#96) - Scott Nagy

2014
Louisiana Tech (#37) - Mike White
Southern Miss (#64) - Donnie Tyndall
Georgia State (#66) - Ron Hunter
Stephen F. Austin (#70) - Brad Underwood
New Mexico State (#72) - Marvin Menzies
Manhattan (#74) - Steve Masiello
Vermont (#75) - John Becker
Iona (#76) - Tim Cluess
Tulsa (#82) - Danny Manning
Mercer (#87) - Bob Hoffman
Middle Tennessee State (#89) - Kermit Davis Jr
UC Irvine (#90) - Russell Turner
NC Central (#92) - Levell Moton
Belmont (#97) - Rick Byrd
 
Colonel Angus said:
Chris Mack was never a fan of W-S so the odds of him returning as head coach were close to nil even before Dino's departure.
Click to expand...

Correct. Nor was Mack universally loved in Cincy as some on here have suggested. Mack would not be a good fit as HC at Wake and I'm not sorry he won't coach here again.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post

He has Penn State (8-15) 30 spots ahead of Rutgers, who beat PSU at PSU). As bad as AZ St., UCLA, the real USC and fake USC are, they are way behind PSU.
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Thanks for proving my point. My initial post INCLUDED Penn State's 8-15 record not just the loss to Rutgers.

BTW, they are LAST place in their conference. They have TWO conference wins. It's ABSURD than any ranking would have a team that 2-11 in their own conference to be #58 in the nation.
 
RJKarl said:
BTW, they are LAST place in their conference. They have TWO conference wins. It's ABSURD than any ranking would have a team that 2-11 in their own conference to be #58 in the nation.
Click to expand...

So, which ranking system isn't absurd?

Sagarin: 58
Kenpom: 58
NET: 70
BPI: 63
 
Came for the coaching candidates, stayed for the hot takes on Penn State basketball.
 
Those stats are cherrypicked.

Remember, there's NO such thing as a hot hand hand in basketball.
 
WFUWaldo said:
Circling back to this now, but that's overwhelmingly not true.

Below is a list of the five years between 2010 and 2014 where low major coaches cracked the KP top 100. Those five years were selected so that there would be at least five years of results post-'breakthrough'. Low major was defined as any conference not rated in the Top 15 during that given year (some conferences, like Ivy, were thus considered low majors some years but not all years). Regardless of how you split it, the results are basically the same.

In these five years, 38 coaches were able to take low major programs into the top-100 of KenPom. Of those 38, only 11 were ever hired by P6 programs (Billy Kennedy, Brad Underwood, Danny Manning, Donnie Tyndall, John Groce, Kermit Davis Jr, Mike White, Steve Donahue, Steve Pikiell, Steve Prohm, and Wayne Tinkle).

Of those 11 coaches, only three can be considered successful hires - Billy Kennedy, Mike White, and Steve Prohm. Kermit Davis Jr is looking alright in his first season at Ole Miss, but so did John Groce in his first year at Illinois and he was fired after five seasons (and no winning seasons in the Big 10).

Many of the coaches on the below list were 'hot names' for a season or two, but have since flamed out at their low-major programs. Perhaps the best example is Steve Masiello, who was getting tons of interest for major jobs the offseason we hired Manning, but stayed at Manhattan and has been 44-74 over the past four seasons.

So, basically, I disagree that this is a good place to start. With only 8% of the coaches becoming successful P6 hires, there's probably more predictive metrics to look at that are much more valuable.

2010
Cornell (#46) - Steve Donahue
Murray State (#53) - Billy Kennedy
Kent State (#86) - Geno Ford
Ohio (#94) - John Groce
Montana (#95) - Wayne Tinkle
Pacific (#97) - Bob Thomason
Sam Houston State (#100) - Bob Marlin

2011
Belmont (#23) - Rick Byrd
Oakland (#56) - Greg Kampe
Iona (#66) - Tim Cluess
College of Charleston (#70) - Bobby Cremins
Wofford (#84) - Mike Young
Morehead State (#89) - Donnie Tyndall
Long Beach State (#94) - Dan Monson
Bucknell (#96) - Dave Paulsen

2012
Belmont (#25) - Rick Byrd
Murray State (#35) - Steve Prohm
Long Beach State (#36) - Dan Monson
Harvard (#41) - Tommy Amaker
Middle Tennessee State (#49) - Kermit Davis Jr
Iona (#54) - Tim Cluess
South Dakota State (#61) - Scott Nagy
Davidson (#71) - Bob McKillop
Denver (#73) - Joe Scott
Lehigh (#79) - Brett Reed
Bucknell (#89) - Dave Paulsen
Oral Roberts (#91) - Scott Sutton
Mercer (#96) - Bob Hoffman
Princeton (#100) - Mitch Henderson

2013
Belmont (#43) - Rick Byrd
Middle Tennessee State (#44) - Kermit Davis Jr
Bucknell (#58) - Dave Paulsen
Stony Brook (#60) - Steve Pikiell
Davidson (#66) - Bob McKillop
Stephen F Austin (#70) - Danny Kaspar
Weber State (#71) - Randy Rahe
North Dakota State (#75) - Saul Phillips
Princeton (#87) - Mitch Henderson
Lehigh (#91) - Brett Reed
Harvard (#93) - Tommy Amaker
South Dakota State (#96) - Scott Nagy

2014
Louisiana Tech (#37) - Mike White
Southern Miss (#64) - Donnie Tyndall
Georgia State (#66) - Ron Hunter
Stephen F. Austin (#70) - Brad Underwood
New Mexico State (#72) - Marvin Menzies
Manhattan (#74) - Steve Masiello
Vermont (#75) - John Becker
Iona (#76) - Tim Cluess
Tulsa (#82) - Danny Manning
Mercer (#87) - Bob Hoffman
Middle Tennessee State (#89) - Kermit Davis Jr
UC Irvine (#90) - Russell Turner
NC Central (#92) - Levell Moton
Belmont (#97) - Rick Byrd
Click to expand...

So who do you hire if you don’t get home run tier? Assistants at P6 schools? I mean if you’re not targeting up and coming coaches of smaller schools and haven’t landed a top tier coach who are you left to hire? Or is the point that mid major coaches who have come up through the ranks and landed at a program that has consistently been decent are better targets?
 
RJKarl said:
Thanks for proving my point. My initial post INCLUDED Penn State's 8-15 record not just the loss to Rutgers.

BTW, they are LAST place in their conference. They have TWO conference wins. It's ABSURD than any ranking would have a team that 2-11 in their own conference to be #58 in the nation.
Click to expand...

They’ve also played a top 3 schedule in the country. We’ve had these discussions repeatedly so I won’t belabor the point but if a team goes 30-0 playing the bottom 30 teams in the country and another goes 0-30 playing the top 30 I think we’d all agree that we can’t tell for certain who the better team is between the two. So from there you’d look to the margin of the scores for both teams to get a better sense.

With the other extreme example above in mind, obviously records don’t paint the entire picture. KenPom doesn’t care about wins and losses but rather points per possession adjusted for strength of opponent.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
They’ve also played a top 3 schedule in the country. We’ve had these discussions repeatedly so I won’t belabor the point but if a team goes 30-0 playing the bottom 30 teams in the country and another goes 0-30 playing the top 30 I think we’d all agree that we can’t tell for certain who the better team is between the two. So from there you’d look to the margin of the scores for both teams to get a better sense.

With the other extreme example above in mind, obviously records don’t paint the entire picture. KenPom doesn’t care about wins and losses but rather points per possession adjusted for strength of opponent.
Click to expand...

I'm not talking about anyone other than Penn State.

It's one thing if they were 5-8 or 4-9 in their conference, but they aren't. They are 2-11 and in LAST place. They have also lost to three out of the other four worst teams in the Big We Can't Count conference. They have also lost to bad teams like DePaul and Bradley.

Sorry, there is no rational way to make this shitshow be ranked #58.
 
RJKarl said:
I'm not talking about anyone other than Penn State.

It's one thing if they were 5-8 or 4-9 in their conference, but they aren't. They are 2-11 and in LAST place. They have also lost to three out of the other four worst teams in the Big We Can't Count conference. They have also lost to bad teams like DePaul and Bradley.

Sorry, there is no rational way to make this shitshow be ranked #58.
Click to expand...
Tell that to Vegas
 
RJ doen't understand fake, useless stats. We all LOVED when that stat geek Numbers said that the play Jackie Bradley, Jr. made in July would be 42% of the time. That was funny.

RJ understands the ones that MATTER.

RJ also understands Numbers showed himself to be a 100% hypocrite.
 
RJKarl said:
I'm not talking about anyone other than Penn State.

It's one thing if they were 5-8 or 4-9 in their conference, but they aren't. They are 2-11 and in LAST place. They have also lost to three out of the other four worst teams in the Big We Can't Count conference. They have also lost to bad teams like DePaul and Bradley.

Sorry, there is no rational way to make this shitshow be ranked #58.
Click to expand...

Penn state isn’t in some sort of vacuum RJ. Looking at a team who is 2-11 and categorically proclaiming they “can’t be ranked [insert ranking here]” on the basis of record alone is silly and wrong.
 
Ask Tom Seaver if it was "real" that Tommy Hutton owned. Don't ask a GEEK like Numbers who has NEVER played the game.

Just like for a decade stat GEEKS like Numbers said the hot or cold hand doesn't exist in basketball.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Penn state isn’t in some sort of vacuum RJ. Looking at a team who is 2-11 and categorically proclaiming they “can’t be ranked [insert ranking here]” on the basis of record alone is silly and wrong.
Click to expand...

You are descending into the way RWers attacks. This is the second time you have tried to take one part of an issue, extract it and not the totality of the post.

I didn't just say 2-11 only or only losing to Rutgers shows the weakness of the rankings. You're better than this.

How are results against bad teams silly?

How are overall results silly?

What's silly is believing a computer's theory over actual results.
 
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