what would it take to eliminate the EC?
especially if the Dems have House, Senate and Presidency
In what way would someone need to “follow politics” to realize their needs aren’t being met? Are you saying that people are more satisfied with the state of the nation *because* they follow politics? I have to assume your referring to material needs. Not trying to be snarky here, but my paycheck stays the same no matter how much MSNBC I watch. Rachel Maddow isn’t covering her viewers health insurance premiums or helping out with daycare.
^Something I have considered in thinking about the polling now vs. 2016 or even 2018.
Pollsters, like any other business, need to stay in business and be relevant. After the miscalls in 2016, you had to figure they would step back and regroup about where they went wrong or flat out missed. If they kept the SOSO, they would be as relevant as floppy disc today. They had to improve to be worthy of consideration or else it's Survey Monkey.
That's not true. Looking back through the poll averages on 538, on 3/1/20, Biden had a 4 point lead. On 4/1, 5/1 and 6/1, Biden had an average lead of 6. It's been between 7-9 points on the 1st of the last 4 months. The Administration's response to the rona and to a lesser extent the Floyd/Taylor aftermaths has widened Biden's lead. But he still had a lead before the rona shutdown. Trump could still have won the EC with a 4 point popular vote loss, but by no means did Trump have a cakewalk. And with an approval rating between 40-44%, he never had a chance of winning the popular vote.
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.
Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html
Predictit has some serious PTSD from 2016, good look into human psychology, and also the inability when betting to infer independent probabilities. Guys it hasn’t hit black in like 10 times, it’s definitely more likely it’s going to hit black this time!
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.
Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html
but it's also the case that things are getting way worse with the virus while the polls are bending back toward Trump a bit, so hard to say
To be fair, it's hard to tell anymore. I have seen some interviews with actual Trump supporters that aren't much different.
So what would be the best place to lay a few bucks on Biden and some Senate outcomes? If things go south, I'm going to be distraught so losing a few hundred won't hurt that much.
Are things bending back towards Trump?
Recent polls have Biden up 17 in WI, 4 in IA, 14 in MN, and 13 in MI.
Source
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/...ird-results-is-the-sign-of-an-honest-pollster
This is definitely possible with the predictive modeling efforts, like 538. They input past voting patterns into the model to predict who will actually show up and vote this time, and the data I've seen indicate that youth voting turn out in 2020 is a massive outlier compared to recent elections.
Latest news on the epic Hunter Biden scandal: Tucker Carlson said on his show tonight that his "team had acquired incriminating documents. However, they sent them from Washington to Los Angeles, and the documents disappeared. And they neglected to make any copies. So now the only copy of the documents that would nail the probable next President of the United States are gone." Tucker also claimed that the packages were "opened" and implied that the incriminating materials were stolen, no doubt by nefarious Biden agents. Or maybe his dog ate it. If only Trump and his Postmaster General hadn't screwed up the postal service they could have just mailed it. LOL.
Link: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/10/tucker-carlson-lost-only-copy-of-documents-nailing-biden.html