Duke v. Pitt game was bizarre. 28-26 final.
Pitt threw two picks and had a punt blocked. Pitt also kept a Duke drive alive by roughing the punter, leading to a TD. Pitt scored a TD on a fumble return.
With 3 minutes left in the game, and Duke down 28-20, Pitt had a 4th and 3 on the Pitt 44. Pitt elected to punt, but the snap was botched and Duke got the ball on the Pitt 30 needing a TD and 2 point conversion to tie (of course, Duke went for two earlier in the game, which failed and cost them). On 4th and 19, Riley Leonard completed a pass for a Duke TD to make the game 28-26. Duke ran the Philly Special from the Eagles v. Pats Super Bowl, but failed to convert.
Duke ran the no huddle all game, but still ran only 72 plays. They averaged 4.9 per play, which is not very good. Duke could not run the ball 2.3 ypc. Riley Leonhard threw for 290 yards and 3 TDs and 0 Picks, but only average 6.1 ypa.
Duke has played the easiest possible ACC schedule as they played all Coastal Division opponents and BC -- the worst team in the Atlantic. That said, Duke is 7-4 (4-3), and they have beaten or come within 3 of every ACC opponent (lost to Pitt 28-26, lost to UNC 38-35 and lost to GT 23-20 in OT). Kind of hard to believe, but if the reffs had not robbed Duke of the win over UNC, Duke would be playing on Saturday to get into the ACCCG.
In ACC games only, on offense, Duke is 8th in yards per play with 5.4 (WF is 4th with 5.6). On defense, Duke is 8th in ypp with 5.5. WF is DFL with 6.1.
FWIW, FSU is #1 in the ACC in yards per play on offense (6.9) and yards per play on defense (4.6). FSU is very good. WF's win in Tallahassee was a great win.
Hard to see any scenario where the WF/Duke is anything other than close (absent a ton of TOs either way). Would lean to Duke ATS.