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2017-18 Men's College Basketball Thread (NWT)

Pilchard said:
I like Cincy in the South now. Don't trust Arizona. The Pac-10 is/was awful. Realize Ayton is a beast, but not sure they make it past KY (not sure KY can make it past Davidson). I also liked UVA to win it all before the injury, but the Hunter loss changes things. The bottom of the South bracket is not as daunting as the top. TN is a dangerous team, but don't see anyone else in the bottom half of the South Bracket that can challenge Cincy; Kentucky just beat TN on a neutral court, and UVA will have to either beat KY or Pac-12 champ AZ just to get the 8s. Cincy has a path of Georgia State and Nevada before playing the SEC runner-up TN.

Think there is value with Cincy since the AAC conference is largely ignored, fewer people will take Cincy than UVA, AZ maybe even KY.
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Agree with all of this 100%. I view UT/Cincy as a toss-up... I lean UT because they've played a tougher schedule and seem to have better (& more) 3 point shooters.

I wish I had the balls to take Davidson over UK (I mean, I will ATS, but tougher in brackets)... I hate the Hunter injury because it forces me to care more on Kentucky/Arizona, because either of those teams COULD beat a less than 100% UVA.
 
I have an SEC final rematch of Kentucky/Tennessee now. Cincy is good defensively, but they're a bunch of masons.
 
Just heard Ken Pom on "the bet the process" podcast (the podcast takes really deep dives into the analytics behind sports gambling; Jeff Ma of "21" fame is the host; if you can get past Ma's monotone, weak production and bad jokes, the content is really good). KP's final 4 projection based on value was Tennessee, Gonzaga, Villanova, Duke with Zaga beating Duke in the finals.

He also acknowledged that based on his ratings the chances of that final 4 actually hitting are about 0.1%. KP felt that the two best value picks for deep tourney runs are TN and Gonzaga. He also said that even though Duke is 3rd in his ratings that they have the highest ceiling of any team in the country. He singled out Auburn as a team that is not as good as its KP rating.
 
How about Purdue? As a 2 seed they are there with Cincy is not getting a lot of respect with picks. Rated 1 spot behind Cincy on kenpom. I have to think Purdue is second to Wake in historical seed underperformance.

I think I am sticking with Virginia in the south. They have such an easier path to the sweet 16 than any other team in the upper half.
 
Pilchard said:
Just heard Ken Pom on "the bet the process" podcast (the podcast takes really deep dives into the analytics behind sports gambling; Jeff Ma of "21" fame is the host; if you can get past Ma's monotone, weak production and bad jokes, the content is really good). KP's final 4 projection based on value was Tennessee, Gonzaga, Villanova, Duke with Zaga beating Duke in the finals.

He also acknowledged that based on his ratings the chances of that final 4 actually hitting are about 0.1%. KP felt that the two best value picks for deep tourney runs are TN and Gonzaga. He also said that even though Duke is 3rd in his ratings that they have the highest ceiling of any team in the country. He singled out Auburn as a team that is not as good as its KP rating.
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I have the same Final Four, with Duke beating the Zags in the championship. Agree that Final Four is the "best value" (and that it probably won't happen). Had UVA over Duke, but the Hunter injury made me adjust to UVA losing in the Elite 8 to the Vols.

There are a few teams that I think are much worse than their seeds (Auburn being one), but it is tough to just dismiss them without seeing a team in their way that will beat them. Auburn, for example, is playing a College of Charleston team that we waxed last season on the road... And this year's CoC team probably isn't even as good as last year's. I can't see Auburn losing. I have Clemson & New Mexico State as a toss-up, but I can't take either of them to beat Auburn, either.

Teams w/ a 6 seed or better that I think are "frauds": Arizona, Miami, Ohio St, Auburn, Florida, Wichita State

I think Xavier (no shit) and Kansas are overseeded as #1s, but I don't see how Kansas loses until the Elite 8.

Not super high on Purdue, either, but also don't see them losing until the Elite 8.
 
Oh, I’m sure I’ll be wrong about a lot of things.

LeVelle Moton loses the play-in game. Maybe he is Wake Forest material, after all.
 
CantStandYa said:
Holy shit these two teams are fucking terrible.
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Field has gotten too big. Need to get rid of some of the undeserving mediocrity and go back to 64. It'll never happen, though.
 
Or put more mid-majors in instead of these major teams that have proven they can lose. Repeatedly.
 
Ayo said:
Field has gotten too big. Need to get rid of some of the undeserving mediocrity and go back to 64. It'll never happen, though.
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Every year the first four has existed one of the teams has advanced to at least the round of 32, including VCU advancing to the final four.
 
Ayo said:
Field has gotten too big. Need to get rid of some of the undeserving mediocrity and go back to 64. It'll never happen, though.
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Agree 100%.

64 is the number. I don’t care how you get there, but the first four is dumb for so many reasons.
 
Rafi said:
Every year the first four has existed one of the teams has advanced to at least the round of 32, including VCU advancing to the final four.
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Eh, weird things can happen in a one-game playoff and one win isn't overly impressive by any stretch. Do better in the regular season if you want the chance.
 
The especially painful part of this game is that we dropped 2 of 3 to Syracuse and they suck.
 
Obviously, I am in the minority, but I like the first four. Gives exposure and wins to programs that otherwise wouldn't have gotten the attention (Radford and TX Southern this season), it means more basketball and as stated above, first four teams have made NCAA runs, including VCU to the final 4. Teams that are among the last 4 in can do damage. If you don't like it, ignore it (it has no impact on NCAA pools), but if you like basketball you get 4 more games which is good.
 
Pilchard said:
Obviously, I am in the minority, but I like the first four. Gives exposure and wins to programs that otherwise wouldn't have gotten the attention (Radford and TX Southern this season), it means more basketball and as stated above, first four teams have made NCAA runs, including VCU to the final 4. Teams that are among the last 4 in can do damage. If you don't like it, ignore it (it has no impact on NCAA pools), but if you like basketball you get 4 more games which is good.
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Sure Syracuse could make a run, but they definitely suck. And the idea that Syracuse could make a run is only based on their 2-3 Zone. They're terrible to watch. And St Bonaventure, UCLA, and ASU also suck.

And the teams playing in the 16 v 16 matchups won their leagues and get rewarded with a trip to Dayton to play some other tournament champion. That's BS. Drip two shitty at-large 11-seeds, such as Syracuse and St Bonaventure, from the tournament.

Oklahoma's lost 8 out of 10 games with their only two victories coming over mighty Iowa State and Kansas State (9). Could they make a run by upsetting mighty Rhode Island (who just lost to Davidson) and Duke ? Sure they could, but they're not winning the tournament, or even coming close to doing so. Yet, there they sit as a 10-seed while we waste time with four extra games in the middle of the week.
 
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