DeacsATS
Sam "Ace" Rothstein
Just heard Ken Pom on "the bet the process" podcast (the podcast takes really deep dives into the analytics behind sports gambling; Jeff Ma of "21" fame is the host; if you can get past Ma's monotone, weak production and bad jokes, the content is really good). KP's final 4 projection based on value was Tennessee, Gonzaga, Villanova, Duke with Zaga beating Duke in the finals.
He also acknowledged that based on his ratings the chances of that final 4 actually hitting are about 0.1%. KP felt that the two best value picks for deep tourney runs are TN and Gonzaga. He also said that even though Duke is 3rd in his ratings that they have the highest ceiling of any team in the country. He singled out Auburn as a team that is not as good as its KP rating.
I have the same Final Four, with Duke beating the Zags in the championship. Agree that Final Four is the "best value" (and that it probably won't happen). Had UVA over Duke, but the Hunter injury made me adjust to UVA losing in the Elite 8 to the Vols.
There are a few teams that I think are much worse than their seeds (Auburn being one), but it is tough to just dismiss them without seeing a team in their way that will beat them. Auburn, for example, is playing a College of Charleston team that we waxed last season on the road... And this year's CoC team probably isn't even as good as last year's. I can't see Auburn losing. I have Clemson & New Mexico State as a toss-up, but I can't take either of them to beat Auburn, either.
Teams w/ a 6 seed or better that I think are "frauds": Arizona, Miami, Ohio St, Auburn, Florida, Wichita State
I think Xavier (no shit) and Kansas are overseeded as #1s, but I don't see how Kansas loses until the Elite 8.
Not super high on Purdue, either, but also don't see them losing until the Elite 8.