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2022 Pit Fantasy Football League - Dynasty League Filled, Members Please See New Thread

Nice work, Goon. Glad I waited for you to figure it out instead of trying to do it myself.

I don't think I need you to lose because I have the H2H. I do need mako to lose to get the H2H over him. I've got a decent shot. Fighting Cocks and mako are playing teams with better records. redwing has a lot of players on bye and is projected to lose. Mrs. I/O Deac is projected to beat Barca. So I need all these 50% or better shots to go my way and to pull off an upset.
 
actually it looks like points, at least according to projected playoff standings. i'm sixth ahead of mrs I/O even though i lost that matchup head-to-head. looks like points for is the tiebreaker, unless the projections are incorrect.
 
The league settings say head to head. I’m guessing the projections are points because head to head may be too complicated before the season is up.
 
PhDeac said:
Nice work, Goon. Glad I waited for you to figure it out instead of trying to do it myself.

I don't think I need you to lose because I have the H2H. I do need mako to lose to get the H2H over him. I've got a decent shot. Fighting Cocks and mako are playing teams with better records. redwing has a lot of players on bye and is projected to lose. Mrs. I/O Deac is projected to beat Barca. So I need all these 50% or better shots to go my way and to pull off an upset.
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I think you need me to lose because you own the H2H over me, but not the H2H between all relevant parties. I think I actually have the best H2H of those that can finish 8-6, but there are no scenarios where it is just you and I that finish 8-6. You do have points on me though so it's better for me if you lose and I don't have you in the picture.
 
If I looked it up correctly, if multiple teams are tied, it is H2H between all involved teams. If the schedule is unbalanced, it goes to points scored. This is where I am not sure because the permutations get pretty endless with as many teams that might finish 8-6.
 
I'm going to be a bit miffed if I stay at #5 in total points and don't make the playoffs. Not too much, though, since I was definitely outside the top 8 last season and did make it in.
 
Gotcha, Goon. That makes sense.

I'll make a pitch for total points being the first tiebreaker next season. There's not much to do about H2H when managing bye weeks except put together the best roster possible.
 
Things are getting spicy with these early game results
 
Looks like Ph’s 10% chance may actually hit here….
 
Today my players decided they didn't want to score any touchdowns
 
Gooner said:
Looks like Ph’s 10% chance may actually hit here….
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I don't know how ESPN does the projected standings, but all of a sudden, I'm at 8th even though the percentage is at 8%.
 
PhDeac said:
I don't know how ESPN does the projected standings, but all of a sudden, I'm at 8th even though the percentage is at 8%.
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I think it’s projected standings if the current scores were final. You would be in right now because everyone but me is losing and you have the tiebreaker over me. But combined winning prob of the other teams involved is probably high enough that it still projects you not to get it. Big ones you need to worry about are mako holding on and Mrs. I/O coming back.
 
I’m somehow gonna not make the playoffs. I feel it coming
 
That makes sense. I haven’t paid attention to projected standings during the game.
 
Remember during the draft when Tyreek Hill just lingered there for several rounds because we all didn’t trust Tua?
 
Tyreek Hill was taken 35th, 12th WR. It was well below where he should have been taken but not a massive drop.

Gooner said:
I won't have time today to get a full writeup done, I just can't seem to get the hour or two I need away from everything to put it together. Here's a rough look at the playoff picture and what needs to happen for some teams to get in based on my best understanding of the ESPN FFL tiebreaker settings:

QUALIFIED
  • Ghost (10-3, wildcard secured): Must win against mako to clinch Poteat Division
  • DEACHAWK (9-4, wildcard secured): Must win against Fighting Cocks to clinch Davis Division
  • Mr. I/O (9-4, Kitchin Division clinched): Will be at least 3rd seed, can earn 2nd seed if win and DEACHAWK loses, can earn 1st seed if win and Ghost loses)
  • Lone Wolf (9-4, wildcard secured): Can win Poteat Division if win and Ghost loses; cannot be lower than 5th seed

WIN AND IN
  • Fighting Cocks (8-5, 91% chance at playoffs): Clinches division with win; if loses, would only miss playoffs if Mrs. I/O, mako, Ph, redwing, and Gooner all win and have all three of Ph, redwing, and Gooner make up potential tiebreaks
  • mako (8-5, 79%): Clinches a wildcard with win; if loses, would miss playoffs if two or more of Mrs. I/O, redwing, Ph, Barca, and Gooner win and make up tiebreaks
  • Mrs. I/O (8-5, 68%): Clinches a wildcard with win; if loses, it gets very complicated (see below)
  • SD3 (7-6, 64%): Clinches Taylor Division with a win over TripleDeac or Edarem loss to bern

FIGHTING CHANCE
  • Edarem (6-7, 36%): Clinches playoff spot with win against bern and SD3 loss to Triple; eliminated with loss or SD3 win
  • Barca (7-6, 24%): Clinches playoff spot with win and Mrs. I/O, mako, Gooner and Fighting Cocks losses (owns H2H tiebreak over redwing and Ph)
  • redwing (7-6, 18%): Clinches playoff spot with win, Gooner win, Fighting Cocks loss, mako loss, Mrs. I/O loss and Ph win (wins the 2nd H2H)
  • Gooner (7-6, 11%): Clinches playoff spot with win, redwing loss, Fighting Cocks loss, Mrs. I/O loss, Ph loss (wins overall H2H)
  • Ph (7-6, 10%): Clinches playoff spot with win, Mrs. I/O win, and all of Fighting Cocks, redwing, Gooner, and mako losses
I want to make clear that I might have missed a tiebreaker or two going through everyone's schedules, and the uneven scheduling we have with 20 teams may play a part. But to the best of my abilities, I believe this is what must take place for everyone this weekend. Best of luck to all, hope I see some of you in the playoffs!
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Here's my scenario:
I've got a 27.58 lead vs. Mac Jones and Hunter Henry tonight (74% chance)
Mrs. I/O Deac is down 17.28 with Rhamondre Stevenson tonight (46%)
Fighting Cocks will lose unless Dortch gets more than 26.31 points (99%) but that would be worth losing.
redwing will lose unless James Conner gets less than -2.06 points (94%)
Goon will win if McBride + 10.46 points beats Colt McCoy (1%)
mako will lose if Hopkins has more than 6.82 points (72%)

So if I didn't need Goon to lose, I'd have a 23% chance. But since I guess I do need Goon to lose, it's highly unlikely.

Here is the list of likely 8-6 teams fighting for 3 spots based on current percentages:
Ph
Mrs. I/O Deac
Barca
redwing
Fighting Cocks
Goon
mako

And SD3 is a 8-6 division champ. That's ridiculously close.
 
I don't think you need me to lose, I'm not your blocker on this because you have H2H and points on me. From what I can tell you're in unless Mrs. I/O, Fighting Cocks, and mako all win and that is unlikely.
 
I am in the uncomfortable position of having to root for the Patriots tonight...
 
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