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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

Georgia Tech strikes me as a team that's a very tough out at home and is going to really bomb on the road. We will see though as D14 points out. Lowell seems to be decent overall (relatively speaking for Lowell at least)
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Got me interested in conference affiliation Final Fours the last decade. Here's the count:

ACC: 8
Big 10/Big East:6
SEC/Big 12: 5
MVC/Pac 12/American/WCC: 2
CUSA/MW: 1

Teams who have made the FF by conference last decade:

ACC: UNC (3), Duke (2), Miami, UVA, Syracuse
Big 10: Michigan State (2), Michigan (2), Wisconsin (2)
Big East: Villanova (3), UConn, Syracuse, Louisville
SEC: Kentucky (2), Florida, South Carolina, Auburn
Big 12: Kansas (2), Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma
MVC: Loyola, Wichita State
WCC: Gonzaga (2)
American: UConn, Houston
Pac12: UCLA, Oregon
CUSA: Florida Atlantic
Mountain West: San Diego Statte

Champs by Conference last decade:

Big East: 4
ACC: 3
Big 12: 2
American: 1
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@bigsamplesizedeac
 
Well relatively speaking it's a far smaller sample size even compared to one full season of data that metrics use for the overall ratings, but yes that's a larger sample size than the last couple of years.
 
Biggest hits to Tech from pre-game to post-game are from two games:

Loss to Cincy by 35 (-15)
Beat Howard by 3 (-17)

They're basically where they started the year, minus 10 spots.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Well relatively speaking it's a far smaller sample size even compared to one full season of data that metrics use for the overall ratings, but yes that's a larger sample size than the last couple of years.
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Roughly speaking, there have been 630 NCAA Tournament games played in the last decade and nearly 2K played this year alone. Obviously not apples to apples since they're comparing different things, but yeah, sample size is relative.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Biggest hits to Tech from pre-game to post-game are from two games:

Loss to Cincy by 35 (-15)
Beat Howard by 3 (-17)

They're basically where they started the year, minus 10 spots.
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I think I've obviously established myself on the pro-analytics side, but it's a valid conversation to say that these two results shouldn't completely counterbalance beating the KP #10 team by 4 and KP #31 team by 8.

This is where things turn to saying that these sort of analytics aren't nearly as valuable as later in the year. Because by February GT will have had plenty of chances to have more results like the Cincy and Howard games or like the Duke and Miss St games. And it's very unlikely that they keep doing both at an equal rate.
 
Reminder that [Redacted] broke the ACC’s fucking analytics. Before him, the worst ACC KP finish was Clemson in the 160’s, one time. Since [Redacted], every single freaking year the ACC has had at least one team worse than that Clemson team, often multiple in the 200’s.

It’s HIS fault. Actually it’s Wellman’s fault.
 
deacon14 said:
I think I've obviously established myself on the pro-analytics side, but it's a valid conversation to say that these two results shouldn't completely counterbalance beating the KP #10 team by 4 and KP #31 team by 8.

This is where things turn to saying that these sort of analytics aren't nearly as valuable as later in the year. Because by February GT will have had plenty of chances to have more results like the Cincy and Howard games or like the Duke and Miss St games. And it's very unlikely that they keep doing both at an equal rate.
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I do agree with you on what should/will count in the eyes of the committee. To be fair, I do think that they will value a win over Duke more than they will the MOV loss to Cincy if the Jackets were to be on the bubble in March.

Looking at just those two games:

Projected Duke 82-71 (Tech won by 4) - 65 possessions (137 v. 14 coming in)
Projected Cincy 80-69 (Cincy won by 35) - 71 possessions (137 v. 50 coming in)

Tech overperformed against Duke by 15 and underperfomed against Cincy by 24 - they actually gained more by beating Duke (17) than they did by losing to Cincy by 35 (dropped 15).
 
There are large differences in how differences in efficiency matter in the ratings. Example UNC is currently 1.03 pp100 more efficient than aTm, and two spots ahead of them in KP.

St John’s is 0.98 pp100 more efficient than Boise State, and 12 spots ahead of them in KP.

At this point in the season especially, the difference for both is probably within margin of error of the system.
 
BarcaDeac said:
will be interesting to see how many of these Q1 B10 or 12 teams make the Final Four though. Probably will get another 2+ ACC teams in and the pundits will be like "we can't believe it !"
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And the vaunted SEC has had 1 team (Auburn 2019) in the FF in the last 5 years as well.
 
thatguy2016 said:
There are large differences in how differences in efficiency matter in the ratings. Example UNC is currently 1.03 pp100 more efficient than aTm, and two spots ahead of them in KP.

St John’s is 0.98 pp100 more efficient than Boise State, and 12 spots ahead of them in KP.

At this point in the season especially, the difference for both is probably within margin of error of the system.
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Yeah this is a great point.

Also the difference between first (Houston) and 15th (Marquette) in the ratings is about the same as the difference between Marquette and 75th Rutgers.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I really hate how we bitch and moan about the NET like we're the only team that is negatively impacted because of the way the system works.

If we beat Georgia and LSU then we're probably like 50th in the NET. Gotta just win more games.
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Perfectly explained! You just can’t have losses to the dregs like LSU hanging in your record.
 
myDeaconmyhand said:
+1
We have to change the old mindset that a .500 record in the ACC will get us in the tournament. With our unimpressive OOC record we probably need to finish top 5 in the conference to have a shot. In the last 3 seasons the average conference winning percentage for last tournament bids from the ACC was 63.5% which is 13 wins.

Obviously in 2022 we had 13 conference wins and didn’t get an invite, last season Clemson had 14 wins and didn’t get in. With our OOC record we will need between 13-14 conference wins, we will need some impressive wins and we will need to avoid bad losses. If we end the season outside the top 5 of the conference, with less than 13 conference wins, there is very little chance we make the tournament.
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Yup. With our top teams out here playing Mich St, KY, Zona, Memphis, Baylor, Tenn, Zags, Bama, A&M, UConn, we need to step up our OOC game above an LSU or UGA.
 
buckets said:
georgia isn't too bad - 2nd game of the season, no efton, a true road game, and didn't sallis have a bum ankle?

that shouldn't be the game that keeps us out of the tournament if we handle our business

the lsu loss sucks though
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Got beat my Miami, Providence & Oregon. 8-3 w/ 3 wins over ACC teams. Was 85 in KenPom the other day.
 
Having watched us play several times now there are a couple things that stand out.
1) Boopie Miller is a very good fit for how we like to play
2) Hunter Sallis is a talented scorer BUT his shot selection is often just heat checks and forced shots
3) Andrew Carr is the most important player when not in foul trouble
4) Cam Hildreth is nicely settling into his role as a number three scorer
5) Keller and Friedrichsen are becoming excellent role players and contributors
6) Efton Reid is contributing rebounds but not points and It's not clear whether he'll become a true inside threat
7) Overall our depth is improved, and when Monsanto comes back that will be a big boost to scoring options
 
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