2023 Pit Fantasy Football League - THE PLAYOFFS ARE SET

[TripleDeacon]

I swear to fucking Christ I’m going 0-14, holy shit I can’t catch a break. How is this the week of all weeks I’m going against DJ Moore in both leagues?

And it’s against me in both leagues!

 

[Ghostsurfer]

I woke up to see Field's big night in my $$ league (better morning than the dude that had DJ Moore - on his BENCH! Ouch) . Luckily, I started Scary Terry to offset his Fields. It did not work out for me. Last place in that league.

 

[deacon14]

If you guys could stop claiming everyone that I try to add off the waiver wire, that would be great

 

[BarcaDeac]

@Gooner I meant to decline your trade request for Purdy last week, sorry. but not sorry for keeping Purdy rn.

 

[deacdiggler]

Due to overwhelming demand, I did scrub last year's thread for the full litany of missed/half-assed recaps:

Recap likely out tomorrow. Preview of the recap: Ph does get mentioned.

Recap probably getting pushed to tomorrow, work got way crazier today than a normal Wednesday.

Recap likely coming late tomorrow, work is kicking my ass this week

Sorry I've been slammed with work all week, I will try really hard to get a recap out today but if I can't, I promise to do a massive Week 7/8 recap next week. But just so Ph doesn't get mad at me, I'll knock his out right now.

Winners:

Ph: Ph won his game this week against me. That is the most depressing sentence I've ever written, and I once wrote an entire college admissions essay about my dead grandfather.

Week 8 Preview:

Ph (3-4) vs. Barca (2-5): Ph plays Barca this week.

I did not get to a recap, apologies to all. Best of luck to everyone in Week 8!

I will have some time to write up the last couple weeks' recaps later this afternoon, might not finish until tomorrow.

I am garbage and haven't gotten to the recaps, but you will get your flowers. Should have it out tomorrow.

Still alive, trying to get something together today for the final week of regular season. Work is kicking my ass badly.

I won't have time today to get a full writeup done, I just can't seem to get the hour or two I need away from everything to put it together.

 

[deacdiggler]

i do ❤️ you gooner

 

[Gooner]

Thank you for that trip down memory lane, Diggler.

 

[deacon14]

Not to take Gooner's place with a midweek writeup on the league, but I got curious about something and thought I'd share what I found with you all. Prior to joining I had never played in a 20 team league, and naturally I assumed that nailing your first round pick (FRP) would be critical to winning. So five games in, I wanted to look at whether that held up or not:

I separated all 20 teams into winners (3-2 or better) and losers (2-3 or worse), which ended up being an even 10-10 split. Then I looked at who each team's FRP was and broke down what position it was, how many total points and PPG the player has, how many games the player has missed due to injury, and what number pick it was. Here's what I found:

Winning teams: 4 RBs, 4 WRs, 1 QB, 1 TE
Losing teams: 4 RBs, 3 WRs, 3 QBs, 0 TEs

Initially what stood out here was that FRP QBs seemed to be on losing teams. The records of those 4 teams are: 3-2, 1-4, 2-3, 0-5. Way too small of a sample size here to say FRP QBs are an outright bad idea, especially with Burrow being unusually terrible so far, but interesting nonetheless.

Winning teams: Average of 70.1 ± 40.6 total points from FRP, Average of 18.1 ± 5.2 PPG from FRP
Losing teams: Average of 76.4 ± 27.1 total points from FRP, Average of 16.2 ± 4.45 PPG from FRP

So there's not really a difference in actual points scored from FRPs between winners/losers. However, you could make the case that QBs naturally score more fantasy points and that skews this analysis, so I removed them and checked the numbers again.

Winning teams (minus 1 team): Average of 65.3 ± 40.0 total points from FRP, Average of 17.6 ± 5.2 PPG from FRP
Losing teams (minus 3 teams): Average of 68.6 ± 22.3 total points from FRP, Average of 15.1 ± 3.09 PPG from FRP

Not really much of a difference after removing QBs, the two groups are still relatively similar in terms of points scored. Perhaps a higher PPG for the winning teams, although not in terms of total points scored, which gets me to my next point.

Winning teams: 10 total missed games (non-bye weeks) from FRPs. 1+ game missed by 4 different players.
Losing teams: 3 total missed games (non-bye weeks) from FRPs. 1+ game missed by 1 player.

This is where I got very intrigued. There are 4 different winning teams that have had their FRP miss at least a game (Kupp: 4, Ekeler: 3, Chubb: 2, Kelce: 1). Meanwhile, only one FRP on a losing team has missed any games (Barkley: 3). Along with the lack of significant difference in points between winning/losing teams, this would support the idea that FRPs being in your lineup and high-scoring isn't entirely make or break for your winning chances.

Winning teams: Average draft slot: 9.2 Median draft slot: 8
Losing teams: Average draft slot: 11.8 Median draft slot: 13

So, the teams that currently have a winning record had earlier draft picks than the teams with a losing record. The draft slots of the winning teams are: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 13, 19, 20. The draft slots of the losing teams are: 1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. Based on the above analysis, I don't think that this difference is necessarily related to the FRPs, but perhaps being on the first half of the draft was the better place to be in later rounds. Regardless, congrats to Mako, Gooner, and Ghost on being the only 3 players to have a top ten draft pick and a losing record.


Ok that's enough words, especially when I honestly don't have a super strong conclusion here. I am curious to see what the points scored by FRP numbers look like when compared to team record at season's end, so I'll probably do another one of these then. Maybe I'll get really bored at work one day and dig into the historical data of this league to see the winning percentage of the first half of the draft vs the second half.

 

[YoungBuck95]

nerd

 

[Gooner]

WEEK 5 RECAP
Death Seems Better Than This

​

We are in a dark place, ladies and gentlemen and @DeacDiggler. A dark, dark place filled with losing and endless sadness. It was so bad this week I could barely look at myself in the mirror. Did I do something wrong? Am I really this bad at picking random players off a draft board? Should I relinquish my commissionership for ineptitude? The existential questions that plague us all seem immaterial when compared to the pressing question of whether I am just utterly dogshit at fantasy football. That question may be unanswerable, it may just be a flat yes. Either way, the fantasy football season continues onward without regard for the bodies it leaves behind, so let's take a look at what happened in Week 5:

WEEK 5 STATS



WEEK 5 NOTES​

• Where Do We Go From Here?: As stated in the preamble to this week's recap, I'm not doing so well. But unfortunately, neither are some of my fellow managers. Mrs. I/O, @mako1331 and @TripleDeacon all have one win or fewer (congrats to DJ Moore who almost beat me by himself for Triple) and already are below a 10% playoff chance merely five weeks into the season. This league is notorious for few trades and limited capacity for large-scale comebacks over the course of the season, so that leaves us all in a tough spot not really knowing how to try and claw back something from this season. Maybe we are already looking toward 2024 for a chance at redemption, maybe the fantasy gods will stop shitting on us just long enough to give us that dangerous glimmer of hope. Either way, I feel for all of my fellow cellar dwellers and hope that fortunes turn for you as they surely will not for me.​
• The Weather Up Here is Fine: On the opposite end of the spectrum, undefeated @DeaconPeach and @iodeac are showing us that the right draft and the right matchups can make anyone's fantasy dreams come true. While both teams are performing well and are in the top-3 in season scoring, they also have had the easiest schedules to face so far, with neither team yet eclipsing 300 points against on the season. Mr. I/O specifically has yet to face a team who has scored 70 points in any of his matchups so far, leaving just enough room for results to flip if he's not careful. Matchup based results is part of the vagaries of fantasy football, sometimes you just catch the right teams on the right weeks and race out to a big winning record. But it's worth keeping an eye on our two undefeated teams to see if the fantasy gods continue to smile on them week-to-week.​
• The Devil is in the Details: Meanwhile, @Satan shouldn't have to worry about a thing as he is just curbstomping whoever comes across his path in most weeks. With his only loss being a week he was 2nd-top scorer and every other week scoring at least 88 points, we haven't seen something like this since back in 2020 when DEACHAWK was a buzzsaw for most of the season. It's an interesting position to be in where Satan's team is so clearly the best in the league to this point, but he remains behind Peach in the standings (see above), which always leaves room for an unlucky turn that drags Satan into the depths of a wildcard race. But Satan does have a couple things going in his favor: 1) his best players outside of CMC still have room for improvement, and 2) everyone else in the wildcard race has worse rosters. While I can lament the luck-based aspects of fantasy football, there are cases like Satan here where a roster is just really good. Best of luck in your continued success, Satan.​
• Ph Watch: @PhDeac lost to @YoungBuck95 in Week 5.​
• Nice: mako and Mrs. I/O both had nice scores, sadly mako missed the rarified double nice score by 0.01 points.​
• #DIGGLERSUCKS: Weekly reminder that Diggler sucks.​

WEEK 6 PREVIEW​

Mrs. I/O (0-5) vs. Gooner (0-5)

It's officially Toilet Bowl season! Someone will have a 1 in the win column by Tuesday and if past is prologue, your money should be on Mrs. I/O. Bye weeks and injuries mean that our best lineups are mere afterthoughts this week, so whoever can have a random person show up big will likely pull this one out. Best of luck, Mrs. I/O.

Mr. I/O (5-0) vs. D14 (4-1)

The other half of the I/O clan has an equally big matchup in Week 6 as he finally faces a real opponent in @deacon14. Two division leaders who need wins to ensure they hang on to that division lead means this was always going to be a hotly contested game, and we should get to see the best of both teams as bye weeks will not factor into any lineup decisions for either manager. It would be a statement win for D14 who is continuing the rookie tradition of great starts to the season from the past few years, but this will be his sternest test yet and only his second matchup against a team in the top-half of the scoring charts. Some games are tone setters for the rest of the year and I think this is the case for both men here. Good luck to you both.

Peach (5-0) vs. Lone Wolf (3-2)

I would be remiss if I didn't include a marital matchup of mass meaning in this week's preview. I have extolled the virtues of undefeated Peach and potential pitfalls with her previous opponents, but this week she does not get off easy. @Wolf1297 will be hoping that he can maintain his vows and his composure while going up against his beautiful bride, but I don't think he will give any quarter. It is a quandary when in a competitive situation with your significant other, but they both have enough experience that I believe in their ability to power through. But if you need to do what needs to be done, Wolf, I get it. Godspeed you meddling kids.

Best of luck to all in Week 6! #DIGGLERSUCKS

 

[deacon14]

I just beat an undefeated team by 30 and Gooner is still a doubter. Granted DeacHawk started Jameis Winston, who got -0.4 points somehow, but still!

 

[Gooner]

I just beat an undefeated team by 30 and Gooner is still a doubter. Granted DeacHawk started Jameis Winston, who got -0.4 points somehow, but still!

I had a @DeacHawk doubter section written into the Peach and I/O section, but cut it for time

 

[WakeForest Fan]

have i mentioned that i hate fantasy football?

 

[OblongPickle]

Shoot me now.

IDK if anyone else plays DFS (Daily Fantasy), but I came in 1st place in a Dime Package contest ($0.10 per entry, 20 max entries) for the Den/KC game tonight. Out of 118,900 entries, I came in first, which should have won me $500, but I tied with 16 others so I only took home $105 in that contest (still great to win $105 off of $0.10 though)....

The incredible thing is, my lineup would have come in 1st place in the Million Dollar Contest for tonight....though I would have had to split it with 17 other people as well (typically 1st place is $1 million, but because so many were tied, 1st place ended up with $77,777.77)

Still...that's a life changing amount of money...if I only would have had that lineup in that contest.

womp, womp

 

[OblongPickle]

Also, I am looking to perhaps deal for a TE, if anyone is interested in a trade.

#kthxbai

 

[OblongPickle]

And MOTHERFUCK.....I JUST REALIZED Achane was put on the IR.

Sonofabitch, there goes my season.

 

[redwing42]

And MOTHERFUCK.....I JUST REALIZED Achane was put on the IR.

Sonofabitch, there goes my season.

I would say one week too late, but it's going to hurt the Dolphins regardless. I'd rather it not have happened, but the timing was just killer for me.

 

[OblongPickle]

I felt sooo good that I managed to pick the rookie RB that happened to blow up, and not only blow up, but sitting at RB3 overall in basically just 3 games (1 rush for 5 yards in Game 2 of the season doesn't count).

 

[redwing42]

They are saying only 4 weeks, now, so still value there

 

[DeaconPeach]

Peach (5-0) vs. Lone Wolf (3-2)

I would be remiss if I didn't include a marital matchup of mass meaning in this week's preview. I have extolled the virtues of undefeated Peach and potential pitfalls with her previous opponents, but this week she does not get off easy. @Wolf1297 will be hoping that he can maintain his vows and his composure while going up against his beautiful bride, but I don't think he will give any quarter. It is a quandary when in a competitive situation with your significant other, but they both have enough experience that I believe in their ability to power through. But if you need to do what needs to be done, Wolf, I get it. Godspeed you meddling kids.

Best of luck to all in Week 6! #DIGGLERSUCKS

What's even crazier is this was our anniversary week! Luckily after 15 years, we just roll with the fantasy football punches.