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FiveThirtyEight midterms projections update: Republicans favored to take the Senate

UNCG Deac said:
The era of big government is once again over.
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That is some funny shit there.


I am glad. Fuck the democrats and their shitty branding. I am a liberal hippie with a job and health insurance and an investment portfolio from all the hard work I have done and I will always support liberal ideas over the backasswards conservative approach to..... pretty much anything - but I am glad 'we' lose. Let the country suck on some conservative ideology for a while. Have some more energy wars, shit all over the environment, no more science class, more wealth transfer to the (overseas) job creators, cut aid to the poor and throw them in proson. It's gonna be awesome!
 
They haven't gone down under him. They skyrocketed under him and then came down relative to where they were. But saying he reduced budget deficits is like commending somebody for shitting the bed a bit less than they did before.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
They haven't gone down under him. They skyrocketed under him and then came down relative to where they were. But saying he reduced budget deficits is like commending somebody for shitting the bed a bit less than they did before.
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Obama inherited a deficit in 2009 of 1.2T or so and we're now looking at deficits in the 5-600B range. Not pretty, but to act like he wasn't behind the 8-ball (not an unfamiliar place for him amirite) from day one is just not factually honest.
 
ELC doesn't believe Obama inherited anything.
 
Somehow I just don't see the Pubs being able to get the magic 6 seats they need this time to takeover Senate. Sure the Dems are playing a bad hand, but I just don't see Colorado (Udall), Iowa (incumbent retiring), Arkansas (Pryor), or Louisiana (Landrieu) falling to the Pubs. Sure they'll get WV, MT, & SD, probably NC and Alaska is a tossup. These others are all incumbents and most run away from Obama on almost all issues.
 
RJKarl said:
The era of big government was bigger under W. We had more government employees and a much bigger national deficit. But don't let little things like facts get in your way.
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So did those reductions start before or after the tea party gained influence and helped the republicans take back the house? Do you think they would have occurred had the Dems held the House?
 
bobknightfan said:
This is on the state level, rather than the national level.....but what is going to happen in Virginia, where the Republicans basically bribed a Democratic state senator to resign, breaking a 20-20 tie, so that they could prevent 400,000 low-income Virginia citizens from having healthcare?
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Yeah Bob, but the issue is how many of those 400k would actually vote (or the others that are up in arms about the travesty)... the simple fact is that built-in to the calculations are the expectation that the pubs have always been able to motivate the base on a state or local level to a far greater extent than the dems...
 
The Georgia race is pretty interesting (never thought I'd get to say that) and could play a role in whether the GOP takes the Senate. I know 538 has Georgia at a 70% chance to stay GOP, but the latest polls have it as a dead heat between Michelle Nunn and either Daivd Perdue or Jack Kingston. Obviously, the run off results will play a big part in the final outcome and the GOP hasn't even really started attacking Michelle, but I think it is one to watch.
 
Bump, mainly because I want to know Go's take on the Georgia GOP runoff - all the polls showed Kingston ahead, but it's kind of looking like Perdue is going to take it.
 
I almost wish an R had won the election in 2008 so they would have to own those massive deficits that were going to happen after the worst economic collapse since the great depression. Well, either that or they would have had to own enacting massive austerity programs when the economy was on the brink of collapse.
 
The Mangler said:
So did those reductions start before or after the tea party gained influence and helped the republicans take back the house? Do you think they would have occurred had the Dems held the House?
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They started with the stimulus package which was long before the TP. They did NOTHING. They passed NOTHING. In fact by not passing the Senate's bipartisan roads/jobs bill, the TP kept the deficit and unemployment HIGHER than it should be right now.
 
ChrisL68 said:
I almost wish an R had won the election in 2008 so they would have to own those massive deficits that were going to happen after the worst economic collapse since the great depression. Well, either that or they would have had to own enacting massive austerity programs when the economy was on the brink of collapse.
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I think that is a good strategy for 2016.
 
RE:2016- As I said in 2012, it's all about the numbers. Barring a dramatic immigration plan and an even more dramatic cessation of anti-immigrant madness by the right wing of the GOP, the GOP will continue to lose market share from Hispanics. If the 2012 numbers are even just maintained by Hillary, the GOP candidate can't win.

You can't lose 92+% of the black vote, 70+% of the Hispanic vote, even a marginal loss of the women's vote and win the WH. The GOP even lost the Asian vote by 73-27 in 2012.

In the 21 century, you cannot win the WH with just white people.
 
Shorty said:
Perdue ran a massive negative add campaign against Kingston, particularly during the last month. The campaign against Nunn will be more like a campaign against Obama.
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The National and Georgia Chambers of Commerce also ran massive negative campaigns against Perdue (or for Kingston, whichever way you look at it). Nunn is the perfect choice for the Dems in Georgia - not liberal enough for me personally, but a conservative Dem is the only Dem that has a shot in hell in a statewide race. I think she still has an uphill battle, but there are a lot folks out there that voted for her father, but vote GOP now and she has a good chance at taking back a lot of those folks. I don't know that it will be enough, but it will be interesting (as will the Governor's race with Carter).
 
She could wield a lot of power for a newbie in the Senate. The combination of daddy and stealing a seat would bode well for her.
 
I don't think Nunn can win. She's a woman who will be painted as a liberal Obama supporter in a state like Georgia. And for that matter, the Perdue name carries some weight in Georgia, too.
 
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