FiveThirtyEight midterms projections update: Republicans favored to take the Senate

[RJKarl]

LOL. How many times has rj been burned by not reading his own links?

This is what the link and I said:

"Repatriation Holiday Would Not Increase Investment or Job Creation
According to one estimate, U.S. businesses hold accumulated foreign earnings of almost $2 trillion offshore.[5] Many businesses leave a large portion of those earnings abroad to pursue new opportunities in growing foreign markets. However, they undoubtedly also leave a substantial remaining portion abroad to logically delay payment of the U.S. tax.
A repatriation holiday would remove almost all the accrued tax liability on that income if businesses repatriate their foreign income to the U.S. during a certain period of time. The thinking is that businesses would invest domestically the large amounts of money they would bring back, which would mean more jobs and higher wages.
Businesses, like individuals, respond to incentives. If the U.S. offered a repatriation holiday, businesses would no doubt bring large amounts of foreign earnings back to the U.S. to reduce their deferred tax liability. Indeed, the last time the U.S. offered a repatriation holiday in 2004 businesses brought back $362 billion.[6]
However, the holiday did not have the anticipated positive economic benefit.[7] Cutting taxes is generally a good thing, but it must be done in the right way to achieve its intended results. A repatriation holiday increases investment only if businesses face domestic cash constraints preventing them from acquiring the capital necessary to make planned investments. At the time of the 2004 holiday, businesses had ample cash on hand and ready access to capital in credit markets at reasonable rates.[8] Since the businesses did not need the overseas cash to invest domestically, they brought it home and used it to pay dividends to shareholders, buy back shares, or acquire other businesses."

 

[Wrangor]

Germany taxes all corporations domiciled or managed in Germany on their worldwide income.

Germany provides tuition free university education for all citizens.

Germany provides universal health care coverage for all citizens.


GERMANY IS A FUCKING CONSERVATIVE AS HELL COUNTRY.




Americans really, really, really, really have no idea how fucking far right we are as a nation. FAR TO THE FUCKING EXTREME RIGHT END OF THE GODDAMN SCALE. Own it if you want, but don't call centrist politicians "extremists".

So if the whole world is to the left of us, them based on the history of the US I think it is pretty clear that conservative is the way to go, right? Hell, we have been the major world superpower for a century now and our country is only 3.5 centuries old. Why are we so concerned with how all the other countries (who are NOT the single most important factor in almost any geopolitical/economical decision are doing) are organizing their affairs when over the history of our country what we are doing is dominant.

Conservative philosophies are what made our economy the giant that it is, and conservative philosophies are what will continue it. I certainly have my liberal soft spots but it is a false narrative to assume that because we are more conservative than Sweden or Germany or France - that we should automatically move towards liberalism.

 

[TuffaloDeac10]

So if the whole world is to the left of us, them based on the history of the US I think it is pretty clear that conservative is the way to go, right? Hell, we have been the major world superpower for a century now and our country is only 3.5 centuries old. Why are we so concerned with how all the other countries (who are NOT the single most important factor in almost any geopolitical/economical decision are doing) are organizing their affairs when over the history of our country what we are doing is dominant.

Conservative philosophies are what made our economy the giant that it is, and conservative philosophies are what will continue it. I certainly have my liberal soft spots but it is a false narrative to assume that because we are more conservative than Sweden or Germany or France - that we should automatically move towards liberalism.

Turrible

 

[TuffaloDeac10]

You should, like, read some history. Maybe about US protectionism in the 19th Century. Or immigration. Or the Erie Canal. Or the New Deal programs that built the mid-century white middle class. "Conservative philosophies." LOL. OK

 

[Wrangor]

So are we right of the world or left? We can't equally claim that America is conservative and them claim that our economic juggernaut is a result if our Liberal economic philosophies. Which one is it? Are we conservative or liberal?


If we are liberal them stop complaining about how conservative we are. If we are conservative then we have to give a little credit to the results.

 

[jhmd2000]

So are we right of the world or left? We can't equally claim that America is conservative and them claim that our economic juggernaut is a result if our Liberal economic philosophies. Which one is it? Are we conservative or liberal?


If we are liberal them stop complaining about how conservative we are. If we are conservative then we have to give a little credit to the results.

Get it, Wrangs.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

America is a traditionally conservative nation with periods of liberal tendencies. I think most would consider the New Deal to be a pretty liberal program, but I don't know too many political scientists in 2014 who would consider America anything other than a conservative nation relative to other first world nations with well developed economies - particularly when compared to Europe.

There are aspects of the conservative ideology which have served America well over time and at the same time America was always going to have a solid economy provided the resources we have.

 

[TuffaloDeac10]

Germany developed a welfare state to compete to retain workers who were coming here because American wages kicked ass in the 1800s and also to prevent a socialist uprising like the Paris Commune. Ignore the communists for a moment, please. Is the higher worker power or the welfare state the "conservative" one here? I don't think either is conservative.

The actual history doesn't map well onto your conservative/liberal model for figuring out why the US grew to be the largest economy. It also doesn't have anything to say about our considerable geographic advantages and/or genocidal winning of the West. Speaking of which, was the Mexican-American war and Texas Revolution liberal or conservative? Should more countries emulate those?

 

[Deacon923]

For the first 150 or so years of US history, we were pretty decidedly "liberal" given that we had basically the only representative democracy in a world of hereditary monarchs, and then a world in which far-right fascism was a serious political alternative. The 1900-1950 era was decidedly liberal, with significant advancements in civil rights, female suffrage, regulation of the economy, and the New Deal. Since WWII, the rest of the civilized world has moved to the left of the US. The US has in some ways become more conservative, and in some ways simply stayed in place due to the sclerotic nature of our political institutions while other nations figured out better ways of doing things - some of those, ironically, as the result of governance structures we imposed upon them after WWII.

Even leaving that critical point aside, there is a huge false attribution problem here. The US is an economic juggernaut because it is a large, unified country, occupies a huge landmass that it had the good fortune to take over after the original inhabitants were wiped out by plague, famine, and small arms, protected from foreign interference by two vast oceans, and blessed with abundant natural resources and a generally temperate climate. The only country that can really challenge the US for pure geographic awesomeness is China, and now that they are coming out from under a few centuries of colonialism and Maoist misrule, their geography is beating our geography. It is silly to attribute the economic success of the US to any particular political philosophy.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

For the first 150 or so years of US history, we were pretty decidedly "liberal" given that we had basically the only representative democracy in a world of hereditary monarchs, and then a world in which far-right fascism was a serious political alternative. The 1900-1950 era was decidedly liberal, with significant advancements in civil rights, female suffrage, regulation of the economy, and the New Deal. Since WWII, the rest of the civilized world has moved to the left of the US. The US has in some ways become more conservative, and in some ways simply stayed in place due to the sclerotic nature of our political institutions while other nations figured out better ways of doing things - some of those, ironically, as the result of governance structures we imposed upon them after WWII.

Even leaving that critical point aside, there is a huge false attribution problem here. The US is an economic juggernaut because it is a large, unified country, occupies a huge landmass that it had the good fortune to take over after the original inhabitants were wiped out by plague, famine, and small arms, protected from foreign interference by two vast oceans, and blessed with abundant natural resources and a generally temperate climate. The only country that can really challenge the US for pure geographic awesomeness is China, and now that they are coming out from under a few centuries of colonialism and Maoist misrule, their geography is beating our geography. It is silly to attribute the economic success of the US to any particular political philosophy.

Well said, the second paragraph was what I was trying to get at when I said we have "resources" but you said it substantially better than I ever could.

 

[TuffaloDeac10]

Maybe, like, having been a battlefield for 150(!) consecutive years had something to do with the French putting a state obligation to provide for the vulnerable into the constitution of the 4th Republic and also explains their lower economic output. Crazy.

 

[TuffaloDeac10]

France also has the misfortune of being stuck with an urban network from Roman times when overland trade was more important than sea-going trade. Damned Roman commielibs...

 

[WFFaithful]

So if the whole world is to the left of us, them based on the history of the US I think it is pretty clear that conservative is the way to go, right? Hell, we have been the major world superpower for a century now and our country is only 3.5 centuries old. Why are we so concerned with how all the other countries (who are NOT the single most important factor in almost any geopolitical/economical decision are doing) are organizing their affairs when over the history of our country what we are doing is dominant.

Conservative philosophies are what made our economy the giant that it is, and conservative philosophies are what will continue it. I certainly have my liberal soft spots but it is a false narrative to assume that because we are more conservative than Sweden or Germany or France - that we should automatically move towards liberalism.

Imagine where we'd be without all those pesky commie lib socialist Obama Muslims always getting in the way!

 

[Wrangor]

For the first 150 or so years of US history, we were pretty decidedly "liberal" given that we had basically the only representative democracy in a world of hereditary monarchs, and then a world in which far-right fascism was a serious political alternative. The 1900-1950 era was decidedly liberal, with significant advancements in civil rights, female suffrage, regulation of the economy, and the New Deal. Since WWII, the rest of the civilized world has moved to the left of the US. The US has in some ways become more conservative, and in some ways simply stayed in place due to the sclerotic nature of our political institutions while other nations figured out better ways of doing things - some of those, ironically, as the result of governance structures we imposed upon them after WWII.

Even leaving that critical point aside, there is a huge false attribution problem here. The US is an economic juggernaut because it is a large, unified country, occupies a huge landmass that it had the good fortune to take over after the original inhabitants were wiped out by plague, famine, and small arms, protected from foreign interference by two vast oceans, and blessed with abundant natural resources and a generally temperate climate. The only country that can really challenge the US for pure geographic awesomeness is China, and now that they are coming out from under a few centuries of colonialism and Maoist misrule, their geography is beating our geography. It is silly to attribute the economic success of the US to any particular political philosophy.

Russia has a boat load of geographical resources other than our awesome weather.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Okay.

 

[2&2 Slider To Leyritz]

Can you incorporate, llc, etc. yourself in the Bahamas or wherever? Honest question, I have no idea.

Yes, though you usually have to have a local citizen serve as the primary repsonible party in that country.

 

[Wrangor]

Imagine where we'd be without all those pesky commie lib socialist Obama Muslims always getting in the way!

lol. You know I am not one of those guys. I just get tired of people complaining about how conservative we are as a country. We are who we are. Comparing ourselves to Sweden/Germany/France is pointless. We aren't and never will be a country like Sweden/Germany/France. All we can judge ourselves by is in fact ourselves. Comparison politics doesn't work because of the exact reasons brought up earlier. There is no nation like us, and there never will be (because we would never allow another country to do the things we did which gave us our advantage...mainly eliminate and marginalize an indigenous population and over run our neighbors in order to take advantage of all the geographical advantages of North America.

The reality is that we are a pretty good mix of conservative and liberal philosophies as a country, and that has a lot to do with our success. Any nation with that holds too closely to either sector of the political sphere eventually runs into major problems. I think the last 16 years has been a good example of that. We have swung from the far right to the far left (not commie libs left, but clearly left when Dems held all three seats of power) and I don't think either the Pubs or the Dems time in power have been particularly well spent. We are better off with a balanced government that works together. The dems spent the last 4 years of the Bush presidency hammering Bush and it worked to get Obama and the rest of the Dems elected. Pubs learned a lesson and took even further and are trying to do the same thing. It is a bad cycle, and it is going to take the American electorate to stop it. I doubt we have the stamina to do so.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Yeah but America is in fact "holding too closely to [a] sector." We are one of the most conservative nations that isn't a Middle Eastern country run by religious factions. Our concepts of "right" and "left" in domestic politics would both be relatively extremist positions in most other first world nations. I would wager that our Republican Party is one of the furthest right wing parties which has a large level of political support in any first world country. The people labeled as "extremists" on the left wing are actually still slightly conservative in most other countries. If someone has some studies or a good article on it I would love to read more about it.

ETA: The Dems holding all three seats of power does not mean that our country was "far left." It means that it was "far left" relatively speaking for America, but it was absolutely nowhere remotely close to far left on a global political scale.

 

[vadimivich]

Russia has a boat load of geographical resources other than our awesome weather.

And despite being ruled by incompetent (at best) and outright malicious (at worst) rulers throughout it's history, Russia is one of the few nations in the history of mankind to achieve superpower status ... and is still rich as hell and super powerful. And they don't have 2 oceans - hell, they barely have ports at all. And if Russia can't fuck it up, it's probably just impossible to fuck up period.

The success of the United States is largely the result of geographic luck and an extremely idealistic, extremely liberal group of founders willing to blow up the conservatism of the land they came from. The fact we've gradually calcified into one of the most conservative nations in the world isn't a highlight, it's a sad reality that being rich and successful for so long has turned us into the old grumpy man of the world unable to look around and see that those damn kids on our lawn might have some really good ideas that we're going to need to take advantage of if we're not just going to totter off into the darkness of old age.

We're far too happy with who we are, and not looking at who we want to be nearly enough. We talk about the American Dream a lot, but the American Dream is now the Swedish or German dream (other than the UK, nowhere in the western world has less economic mobility between generations than we do now). We're so far up our own asses we don't even know what's "extreme" anymore. "Extreme" is normal for us, and normal is "extreme".

 

[Deacon923]

lol. You know I am not one of those guys. I just get tired of people complaining about how conservative we are as a country. We are who we are. Comparing ourselves to Sweden/Germany/France is pointless. We aren't and never will be a country like Sweden/Germany/France. All we can judge ourselves by is in fact ourselves. Comparison politics doesn't work because of the exact reasons brought up earlier. There is no nation like us, and there never will be (because we would never allow another country to do the things we did which gave us our advantage...mainly eliminate and marginalize an indigenous population and over run our neighbors in order to take advantage of all the geographical advantages of North America.

The reality is that we are a pretty good mix of conservative and liberal philosophies as a country, and that has a lot to do with our success. Any nation with that holds too closely to either sector of the political sphere eventually runs into major problems. I think the last 16 years has been a good example of that. We have swung from the far right to the far left (not commie libs left, but clearly left when Dems held all three seats of power) and I don't think either the Pubs or the Dems time in power have been particularly well spent. We are better off with a balanced government that works together. The dems spent the last 4 years of the Bush presidency hammering Bush and it worked to get Obama and the rest of the Dems elected. Pubs learned a lesson and took even further and are trying to do the same thing. It is a bad cycle, and it is going to take the American electorate to stop it. I doubt we have the stamina to do so.

The first paragraph is just typical 'murica jingoism. We can't compare ourselves to anyone but ourselves? Horses#!t. We can and should study how other countries have successfully handled problems when they are similar to American problems. Healthcare is far and away the #1 example. Gun control is a close second. Drug policy is up there. Social policy for supporting working mothers. Britain's reform of its welfare system to move to something closer to a universal minimum income. Taxation systems like the VAT and a territorial corporate taxation system. The list is very, very long.

That does not mean, and no one but you has suggested, wholesale adoption of some other country's political system. It means getting our collective heads out of our jingoistic butts and realizing that there are better ways to do things than the 'murica way.

As for the second paragraph, I am in agreement that the current two party system is badly broken and not functioning to do anything positive for our country. In many other countries in analogous situations of prolonged government gridlock, before things ever got this bad, people recognized there was a problem with the underlying operating system and acted to change it, by adopting a new constitution or other measures. We have too much Constitution-worshiping in this country. The US Constitution is an astoundingly important historical document, but it is showing its age very, very badly. The Founding Fathers never could have anticipated the impact of the 24-hour news cycle, the internet, and precision gerrymandering on the system they created.