Not sure how you guys get so many Arena wins. I've used the icy-veins spreadsheets and everything, but I've never topped 6 wins. Any win rate over 70% seems impossible--there are just too many games where my mulligans don't work out, and I'm playing from behind the whole time.
6 wins in itself is impressive - it puts you in the 85th percentile. In my mind, 4 wins is considered a success: 1) You've breached the 50th percentile 2) You are virtually guaranteed your admission money back (when you assume a pack = 100 gold). After that, the next goal should be seven wins/going infinite by earning a minimum of 150 gold in addition to other prizes. Everything after that is playing with house money.
Arena ranking spreadsheets are very useful, but not everything. Their utility is bolstered by a couple assumptions, mainly: Everyone is drafting a random deck of cards. In most cases it makes sense to select the higher value/more efficient card than something that requires a specific synergy, or something that may be 'good' in constructed play. Perfect example is Undertaker - that card can be an amazing early game drop for deathrattle decks, but in arena that card blows. When someone drops an Undertaker in arena it's for one of three reasons, either they suck at arena (likely), they had a very unfortunate draft choice to make (possible), or they actually constructed a nice rush/deathrattle deck (super rare).
Secondly, and more importantly: Board control is essential. If you can't control the board, you can't win in the arena. In most cases, arena decks lack synergy - they are just a collection of cards, so you need minions that can trade twice (Yetis), will leave something behind after they're hit with a spell (Harvest Golem, Piloted Mechs), are hard to remove (Spiteful Smith, Water Elemental) or have text that hopefully works with some of the cards you drafted already. And you need AOE spells and hard removal to help clear your opponent's board.
Other random thoughts: loading up on efficient 2 and 3 mana cost minions is never a bad idea, that will help with mulligan issues and give you board control early. Going to the face IS the right move sometimes. Freezing is highly underrated in arena & silencing is overrated. Personally, I never take a card that requires a specific synergy unless I already have several of those cards (AKA you don't want to be in a situation where you're praying for a bunch of mechs, murlocs, etc. to pop up) or it's the lesser of three evils. Draft the best card available in the first ten rounds, for the next ten continue to do so but place added weight on potential synergies (when I saw my Pally deck was heavy on Divine Shield, I kept running with that theme), and for the final ten fill in your mana curve or weaknesses in your deck.
Sorry to ramble. Sometimes you will get a shit draw, and sometimes you'll get a great draw. Sometimes you'll play an idiot, and sometimes you'll get the Mage with 4 flamestrikes and 4 fireballs. Just enjoy the ride!
