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I see light, and it's not a train

I really see no point in trying to compare E with Devin. They are totally different players. Devin is more like a miniature Duncan. Not from a talent perspective but from a shot blocking perspective.
 
DirkTheDeac said:
I really see no point in trying to compare E with Devin. They are totally different players. Devin is more like a miniature Duncan. Not from a talent perspective but from a shot blocking perspective.
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I saw a post earlier where someone said they saw a little bit of Hansborough in him. Personally I hate likening any of our players to anybody in baby blue (especially him), but the undersized hustle post play resemblance is definitely there.
 
He's a hell of a rebounder as a freshman. Nose for the ball. You can't teach that. He attacks the glass to get the ball. All the other stuff will fall in place for him. He's a taller Adrian Dantley in my mind.
 
Big E's freshman year to Devin's freshman year is statistically speaking, rather lopsided. Different teams, different league, different coaches, tempos, minutes played, etc. However, the production leans heavily to DT.
EW: 8.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.8 TO, 0.7 spg, 0.6 bpg
DT: 7.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 2.5 TO, 0.9 spg, 1.5 bpg

By the end of the year, DT will be doubling him up (in all likelihood) in reb, ast and blocks and likely ahead in pts and steals too. That's not even close. Devin's season is on pace to eclipse big E's soph year too in my opinion. Big E's scoring jumped to 16 as a Jr but his rebounding was in the "very good" category only as a senior and I think we probably all thought he had the size to get 10 per game or more. It's hard to see Devin not averaging that as a sophomore considering he's averaging 9.8 per game in his last 10.
 
The more I watch Devin, the more I think that we would be better off without a true center to play with him. Despite being around 6'8" or 9", he plays much like a true post player. I think at he might not pair well with a post-up center, but rather with a power forward that can guard outside a bit (I.e. Rodney Rogers, Darious Songalia, James Johnson; not [insert name of 6'10" white guy or large center from Sudan here]
 
Let's not forget Devin is a pretty good passer. He's shown his ability to pass into the post, interior passing and outlet passing.
 
Doggus said:
Big E's freshman year to Devin's freshman year is statistically speaking, rather lopsided. Different teams, different league, different coaches, tempos, minutes played, etc. However, the production leans heavily to DT.
EW: 8.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.6 apg, 1.8 TO, 0.7 spg, 0.6 bpg
DT: 7.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 2.5 TO, 0.9 spg, 1.5 bpg

By the end of the year, DT will be doubling him up (in all likelihood) in reb, ast and blocks and likely ahead in pts and steals too. That's not even close. Devin's season is on pace to eclipse big E's soph year too in my opinion. Big E's scoring jumped to 16 as a Jr but his rebounding was in the "very good" category only as a senior and I think we probably all thought he had the size to get 10 per game or more. It's hard to see Devin not averaging that as a sophomore considering he's averaging 9.8 per game in his last 10.
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Umm, this is why advanced statistics matter.

Eric Williams scored 16.8 minutes per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a freshman, while playing 20.1 minutes per game and seeing 11.9% of Wake's possessions (and 10.8% of Wake's FGs).

Devin Thomas scores 11.2 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a freshman, while playing 25.9 minutes per game and seeing 22.6% of Wake's possessions (and 11.3% of Wake's FGs).

Compared to E and in terms of scoring, Devin Thomas is nowhere close to being as productive as E was as a freshman. I hope that changes. It'll start with improving his shooting efficiency.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
It's not "bizarre" at all then. I take umbrage with the use of that word because it isn't bizarre at all.
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I take umbrage with your use of the word umbrage. Shouldn't Devin be dropping 30 and 20 by now according to your statistical analysis? I think the issue is with making generalizations off of a small sample size, especially given how inconsistent the numbers have been throughout.

Nobody doubts that Devin is going to be a stud. He's a great young player and it doesn't take a regression analysis to know that.
 
Strickland33 said:
Umm, this is why advanced statistics matter.

Eric Williams scored 16.8 minutes per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a freshman, while playing 20.1 minutes per game and seeing 11.9% of Wake's possessions (and 10.8% of Wake's FGs).

Devin Thomas scores 11.2 points per 40 minutes pace adjusted as a freshman, while playing 25.9 minutes per game and seeing 22.6% of Wake's possessions (and 11.3% of Wake's FGs).

Compared to E and in terms of scoring, Devin Thomas is nowhere close to being as productive as E was as a freshman. I hope that changes. It'll start with improving his shooting efficiency.
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Umm, that's why I said PRODUCTION leans to Devin Thomas significantly. You can say Rountree's per 40 min averages look great but if he can only get 10 in per game, who cares? It's just potential. Big E had foul trouble problems and conditioning issues as a frosh and that limited his production and didn't benefit the team. Devin Thomas hasn't had that problem so he plays more and helps the team more. That's why many are saying if Devin had come in with 5 or 6 min left in the game we might have won last night. There's an argument here for common sense trumping advanced stats too. A good player on the bench for 20 min isn't as good as one on the court for 26 min. In this case though, I believe it goes beyond just per 40 min stats or avg stats. Devin is simply having a better season than Big E had because of a superior ability to pass the ball, rebound and block shots. They don't have a stat for post D but if memory serves, I think Devin would have the edge there too.
I agree that if Devin could make a decent amount of his FT he'd be much more lethal. I'd wager he'll still end up averaging more than Eric did by the end of the year.
 
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Doggus said:
Umm, that's why I said PRODUCTION leans to Devin Thomas significantly. You can say Rountree's per 40 min averages look great but if he can only get 10 in per game, who cares? It's just potential. Big E had foul trouble problems and conditioning issues as a frosh and that limited his production and didn't benefit the team. Devin Thomas hasn't had that problem so he plays more and helps the team more. That's why many are saying if Devin had come in with 5 or 6 min left in the game we might have won last night. There's an argument here for common sense trumping advanced stats too. A good player on the bench for 20 min isn't as good as one on the court for 26 min. In this case though, I believe it goes beyond just per 40 min stats or avg stats. Devin is simply having a better season than Big E had because of a superior ability to pass the ball, rebound and block shots. They don't have a stat for post D but if memory serves, I think Devin would have the edge there too.
I agree that if Devin could make a decent amount of his FT he'd be much more lethal. I'd wager he'll still end up averaging more than Eric did by the end of the year.
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Productivity ≠ ppg

If Eric Williams had Devin Thomas's touches, then he would have easily matched his production. Devin got 2x as many possessions as Eric did.

Devin is a good player, but he's inefficient. 47.8% 2FG. He scores at a decent rate off of cuts and offensive boards, but there's no way that makes more than about 40% of his actual post ups. Add to that his 48.5% FT and he leaves a lot of points everywhere.

E shot 55% from 2FG and 62% from FT.

Also, Devin Thomas's post defense numbers are somewhere between average and below average. There are numbers for that.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda. Different contexts, still bad comparison.
 
Devin Thomas looks like a man-child. That kid can fucking play, I agree with the others. In need of another big badly to compliment him.
 
devin's rebounding rates are higher as a freshman than e's were as a junior and senior and appear to be the best we've had since 2005 (as far as individual stats go on kenpom).

i do think that big e was a more talented freshman on offense but also agree with doggus that pushing out to 40 minute PA numbers hides the fact that his conditioning put a practical minutes limit on him.
 
QUOTE=Wrangor;1111527]E was also never a great rebounder for his size. He received his rebounds he didn't go and snatch them. He only averaged 6.7 rebounds a game for his career. That isn't terrible, but that is not great. Devin has the instinct, tenacity, and most importantly - QUICKNESS to be a great rebounder. I will be shocked if Devin doesn't end his career with averages that are close to a double double. Part of that is because we have no big man help in sight for him, but a big part is that he is an instinctual rebounder

Devin plays the game with a real knack for "knowing" where the ball is coming off the rim...in that respect, and for his tireless hustle, I give him the ultimate compliment/comparison --- Buck Williams at Maryland. If Devin develops a 12-14 foot face-up he will be on his way.
 
WTF are we calling "light at the end of the tunnel"? If it's being a middle of the road ACC team and every once in a while upsetting a top 25 team... well fuck that. With Buzz at the helm, I just don't think Wake basketball is going to be an NCAAT team; now or in the future. Does anybody feel differently?
 
Anyone who watched big E as a freshman saw a player who could only dunk the ball, was not mobile at all and tended to take plays off frequently, to the point of Skip removing him from games, they also saw someone with tremendous potential that with hard work could be a fine player. big E put that work in and showed tremendous strides over his career.

Frankly, admitting that devin is out of position, he is better right now than Big E was as a freshman, has more skills, plays hard all the time and has a strong motor, with work he can become a force for us at center of PF, Like a taller Lonnie Baxter at pivot, and Maryland did pretty well with him as their pivot player.
 
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