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MBB Game 20: Pitt Panthers @ The Petersen Events Center - Wednesday - 7 pm - ACCN

Pilchard

Pilchard

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Fresh-off the nine-day CBB All-Star Break, the Deacs head to Western PA to face the Panthers. Here is the skinny on Pitt:

2024 Season: 12-8 (3-6) #71. Pitt started this season out #62 (WF was #73), and the Panthers started the season blowing out 4 horrid teams to jump to #40. Pitt soon wilted once the schedule stiffened (lost by 15 to #35 Florida, lost by 7 to #113 Mizzou, lost by 9 to #29 Clemson, lost twice to #79 Cuse, lost by 13 to #6 UNC, lost by 22 to #14 Duke, and most recently lost by 4 at #66 Miami). The Panthers did claim its best win of the season 10 days ago with a 4 point victory at Duke (the Devils were missing Jeremy Roach and Mark Mitchell). In total, Pitt is a dreadful 1-7 against top 100 teams, including an 0-4 home mark against top 100 teams. In sum, Pitt is 1-8 against teams rated in top #113, and 11-0 against teams rated #134 and below. That said, the Panthers played its best ball over its recent 3 game road trip:

  • W 80-76 @ Duke
  • W 72-64 @ GT
  • L 72-68 @ Miami (the Canes did lead 60-41 with less than 10 minutes to go before Pitt rallied)
Pitt is a beatable team, even at home.

Analytics (ranks are among the 15 ACC games, based on conference games only):

WF Offense ------------- Pitt Defense
Eff.: 109 #4 -------------- 110 #11
Eff. FG%: 53 #4 ---------- 53 #11
TO% 16#10 --------------- 17 #6
3 PT% 40 #1 ------------- 37# 12
2 PT% 49 #9 ------------- 51 #10

Pitt Offense ------------- WF Defense
Eff. 103 #10 ------------ 102 #7
Eff. FG%: 48 #12 ------- 49 #5
TO%: 15 #5 ------------ 15 #10
3 PT%: 33 #10 --------- 35 #8
2 PT%: 46 #13 --------- 48 #4

Other stats to note: the Panthers are the worst FT% team in the conference (65%; WF is the 2nd best 82%). Pitt is tall #7 in the nation in effective height. Pitt is highly reliant on the three 38% of their offense comes from threes (3rd highest in the ACC); in Pitt's three ACC wins, they a collective 41% from three; in their 5 losses, Pitt shot collectively below 30% from three.

The Roster:

Against Miami, Pitt started:

6-3 1st year Jaland Lowe: started the last 6 games, and has found his groove averaging 14 ppg as a starter; shooting 38% from three against ACC teams; 2nd on team in assists
6-5 1st year Carlton Carrington: top 100 recruit; started from day 1 as a frosh; 2nd on team in scoring 13 ppg; 1st in assists and TOs 39% from three
6-7 3rd year Zack Austin: High Point transfer (from Winston), 7 ppg; 4 rpg; 27% from three;
6-8 4th year Blake Hinson: Ole Miss transfer in 2022; leads in points (18 ppg) and minutes (32); high volume three point shooter; has shot 9 or more threes in a game eleven times; has scored 20 or more nine times; had 24 points in last years win over WF (all threes)
6-11 2nd year Federiko Federiko: limited offensively (no threes on the season; 5 ppg); skinny

Bench: Pitt played 7 players against Miami: their main weapon off the bench is 6-3 Ish Leggett (Rhode Island transfer; started most of the season; 12 ppg; 24% from three); also, 7-0 Guillermo Diaz Graham (8 ppg; 5 rpg; 37% from three) splits time at center with double Federiko.

The Projection:

KP: 73-72 Pitt
Torvik: 71-70 Pitt

Well, was feely pretty strong about WF chances until this news hit the twitter-sphere this morning:



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Naturally, need to know who is out and who is limited for WF to make a game projection, but Pitt should be an inviting target for a rested WF team that desperately needs to enhance its record. WIll update when more is known.
 
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Sounds like Ituka is unlikely to be in the rotation any time soon:

 
I'd put this as a must win. I don't think we make the tourney barring something spectacular, like running the table or winning the ACCT with a loss here.
 
I mean Pitt is as reliant as anybody on the three and Wake hasn't allowed any team to get easy looks from three in order to beat them. Pitt doesn't have anybody like RJ Davis to exploit our defensive philosophy.
 
That summary really illustrates how bad a loss that was for Duke - even without two of their better players.
 
We haven’t looked good on the road against athletic defenders. A little spooked by that 7th in the nation in height line
 
deacon14 said:
I mean Pitt is as reliant as anybody on the three and Wake hasn't allowed any team to get easy looks from three in order to beat them. Pitt doesn't have anybody like RJ Davis to exploit our defensive philosophy.
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They are different types of players as RJ Davis is 6-0 and Blake Hinson is 6-8, but Hinson has shot (and made) more threes than Davis, and their percentages are essentially identical. WF has always had trouble with big guys that can shoot threes. Not sure who covers Hinson, if WF plays man (as always). Carr? Cam? Damari?

  • Hinson 68 for 166 from three (41%)
  • Davis 60 for 147 from three (41%)
in the Pitt win at Cameron, Hinson went 7 for 7 from three and most of those were contested.
 
deacfan123 said:
I'd put this as a must win. I don't think we make the tourney barring something spectacular, like running the table or winning the ACCT with a loss here.
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Don't understand the "must win" talk with 11 conference games (5 on the road) still left after Pitt.

Big game? Sure - But they all are at this stage.

Could see a win at Pitt followed up by a loss in ATL or South Bend and the path hasn't really changed.
 
Pilchard said:
They are different types of players as RJ Davis is 6-0 and Blake Hinson is 6-8, but Hinson has shot (and made) more threes than Davis, and their percentages are essentially identical. WF has always had trouble with big guys that can shoot threes. Not sure who covers Hinson, if WF plays man (as always). Carr? Cam? Damari?

  • Hinson 68 for 166 from three (41%)
  • Davis 60 for 147 from three (41%)
in the Pitt win at Cameron, Hinson went 7 for 7 from three and most of those were contested.
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I was not talking about RJ Davis' ability to make threes. Davis shot 8-12 from mid-range against us which really hurt us, and I don't foresee anyone on Pitt doing the same.

Although if we force Hinson into 12 well-defended mid-range shots and limit his looks from three I won't be mad about it.
 
Understand. My point was Hinson has shown that ability, and is a tougher cover from behind the arc because Hinson is 8 inches taller than Davis. We don't really have a great matchup for Hinson, as he shot 8 for 14 from three against WF last year.
 
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Colonel Angus said:
Don't understand the "must win" talk with 11 conference games (5 on the road) still left after Pitt.

Big game? Sure - But they all are at this stage.

Could see a win at Pitt followed up by a loss in ATL or South Bend and the path hasn't really changed.
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We would drop to 5-4 in conference. Would basically need to go 9-2 to get to 14-6. Very tough road with 2 vs duke, and 5 road games as you mentioned. 13-7 is nowhere near "safe" in my opinion with how undervalued the ACC is.
 
Pilchard said:
Understand. My point was Hinson has shown that ability, and is a tougher cover from behind the arc because Hinson is 8 inches taller than Davis. We don't really have a great matchup for Hinson, as he shot 8 for 14 from three against WF last year.
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Hinson didn't even attempt a two point shot against Wake last year. He's only attempted 31 two pointers this season that were not at the rim, and he is 7-31 on those shots. In contrast, RJ Davis is 47-99 from two point shots that are not at the rim this season.

I agree that Hinson is a tough cover, but if we chase him off the three point line it should have a much better outcome than when we did so with RJ Davis.
 
The only true “must-win game” is the ACC tournament final, but man, we’d be best served to win a few between now and then. Wednesday’s a good time to get one.
 
Chasing Hinson off the 3 point line is easier said than done. He's built like Monsanto. He's usually gonna get his shot off... You just hope it's contested and not wide open. You'll take your chances with that.
 
DeacsATS said:
Chasing Hinson off the 3 point line is easier said than done. He's built like Monsanto. He's usually gonna get his shot off... You just hope it's contested and not wide open. You'll take your chances with that.
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I mean chasing someone off the line vs forcing contested shots instead of open ones is functionally the same thing. The defense can't control whether or not the guy chooses to shoot, only whether you are set up to defend that shot or not.
 
deacon14 said:
I mean chasing someone off the line vs forcing contested shots instead of open ones is functionally the same thing. The defense can't control whether or not the guy chooses to shoot, only whether you are set up to defend that shot or not.
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Agreed. My point was just that Hinson, like Monsanto, can hit shots even if you do everything correctly.

So while I think we match up very well with Pitt and what they'll try to do on offense, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll have the same success in limiting 3s (both attempts and makes) that we've had in other recent conference games.
 
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