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MBB Game 22: @ GT -- Tuesday 7 pm -- ESPNU

If we somehow secure the double bye, our first game in the ACCT being a 4/5 matchup could become a massive game.
 
Yeah not buying UVA in the same breath as UNC/Duke. There's a reason we're like 15 or so Kenpom spots ahead of them. Road wins at GaTech (which hopefully we match tonight) and Louisville (blah) don't carry that much weight. Their big difference-maker is the Clemson road win, and they tried VERY hard to lose that game down the stretch and got ridiculously lucky. Their remaining road games are FSU, Duke, VaTech, and BC. They could easily lose all 4 of those. Home games against Pitt and GaTech get them to 10, but the other two are UNC and us. Both UVA and Wake need to get to that 13+ number for ACC wins and I'm not at all sure they have the easier path to get there.
 
UncleTupeloDeac said:
Finish ahead of Clemson and beat them at home to wind up the year, and I don't think they leapfrog us. Of course, this assumes we take care of business in our other home games and win 3 or 4 on the road.
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That theory didn't work too well last year. Clemson beat NC State THREE TIMES (none were close), finished two games ahead of the Pack in the conference, Clemson went 14-6 in the conference and NC State got an NCAA bid and Clemson did not.
 
DCDeac said:
Yeah not buying UVA in the same breath as UNC/Duke. There's a reason we're like 15 or so Kenpom spots ahead of them. Road wins at GaTech (which hopefully we match tonight) and Louisville (blah) don't carry that much weight. Their big difference-maker is the Clemson road win, and they tried VERY hard to lose that game down the stretch and got ridiculously lucky. Their remaining road games are FSU, Duke, VaTech, and BC. They could easily lose all 4 of those. Home games against Pitt and GaTech get them to 10, but the other two are UNC and us. Both UVA and Wake need to get to that 13+ number for ACC wins and I'm not at all sure they have the easier path to get there.
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I don't think anyone is putting UVA in the same tier as UNC/Duke. But they have a better resume than Wake as of this moment, and they are clearly on an upswing after winning 7 ACC games in a row. I also believe that one of their better players was out in the game that Wake beat them.

UVA is also currently 9-3 in the ACC. Almost regardless of the difficulty of their games, they are going to have an easier time getting 4 more ACC wins than Wake is going to have getting 7 more ACC wins.
 
Pilchard said:
That theory didn't work too well last year. Clemson beat NC State THREE TIMES (none were close), finished two games ahead of the Pack in the conference, and NC State got an NCAA bid and Clemson did not.
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Thankfully Wake doesn't have losses to NET ranked teams 234, 269, 168, and 315 like Clemson did last year.
 
deacon14 said:
I don't think anyone is putting UVA in the same tier as UNC/Duke. But they have a better resume than Wake as of this moment, and they are clearly on an upswing after winning 7 ACC games in a row. I also believe that one of their better players was out in the game that Wake beat them.

UVA is also currently 9-3 in the ACC. Almost regardless of the difficulty of their games, they are going to have an easier time getting 4 more ACC wins than Wake is going to have getting 7 more ACC wins.
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Exactly, UVA has a 23 home game win streak, and they have 4 home games left, plus winnable road games at BC, FSU and VT. So, seems likely UVA is going to get to 13 ACC wins. UVA also has a neutral court win over #33 Florida, and a double digit win over #48 A&M. UVA also only played 2 games against teams rated 300 or below; WF inexplicably played 5. Think there is room for both UVA and WF, but UVA does have the less daunting path.
 
deacon14 said:
I also believe that one of their better players was out in the game that Wake beat them.
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I remembered that being part of the narrative at the time we played the game, but looking at UVA's stats for the season he (Harris) certainly doesn't look like he turned out to be one of their best players?
 
Pilchard said:
That theory didn't work too well last year. Clemson beat NC State THREE TIMES (none were close), finished two games ahead of the Pack in the conference, Clemson went 14-6 in the conference and NC State got an NCAA bid and Clemson did not.
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I agree with you in a vacuum. Clemson was an odd case last year. I think their ship sunk due to stength of schedule OOC (ranked 334th out of 363 teams) and a bunch of blowout losses. I don't see those two things as derailing Wake's chances to make the tourney, but other issues could (road woes, lack of a signature win, etc.)
 
TripleDeacon said:
I remembered that being part of the narrative at the time we played the game, but looking at UVA's stats for the season he (Harris) certainly doesn't look like he turned out to be one of their best players?
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My understanding is that Dante Harris is one of their best defensive guards in addition to Beekman, so that would have been very helpful for them against Wake. He isn't their best player by any stretch, but he's definitely a valuable part of their rotation.

UVA is 12-1 when Harris plays and 6-4 when he doesn't. Obviously correlation does not equal causation, but he's contributing to UVA winning.
 
deacon14 said:
My understanding is that Dante Harris is one of their best defensive guards in addition to Beekman, so that would have been very helpful for them against Wake. He isn't their best player by any stretch, but he's definitely a valuable part of their rotation.

UVA is 12-1 when Harris plays and 6-4 when he doesn't. Obviously correlation does not equal causation, but he's contributing to UVA winning.
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Definitely not causation in this instance. Harris is better than Rohde defensively but nowhere near as good as Beekman is. And he can't hit a pig's ass with a banjo on offense and is a big liability on that end. That's why I've wanted Tony to play Gertrude over him and Rohde. Taine Murray has been getting more minutes, especially late in games over both Harris and Rohde. He's bigger than those guys, plays at least as good on D as Harris and can hit the occasional shot.
 
cville deac said:
Definitely not causation in this instance. Harris is better than Rohde defensively but nowhere near as good as Beekman is. And he can't hit a pig's ass with a banjo on offense and is a big liability on that end. That's why I've wanted Tony to play Gertrude over him and Rohde. Taine Murray has been getting more minutes, especially late in games over both Harris and Rohde. He's bigger than those guys, plays at least as good on D as Harris and can hit the occasional shot.
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It looks like Gertrude sucks at shooting too though lol.
 
This guy is a candidate:



FWIW, George is from Arizona and was not rated as a recruit, meaning he was not in the top 200 out of HS. Only Sam Houston State offered. Will be on the ACC all-freshman team; may be a frosh A-A.
 
If you're taking George, I'll take Miles Kelly to inexplicably go HAM on us.
 
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